@Isanthropia

“Facts are not repealed by a refusal to face them.” —William Catton. (not set up for any DMs folks)

 the one planet we got
Joined December 2022
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In the unlikely event anyone who has been protecting themselves from infection with respirator masks and is considering unmasking because “the risk is low now” I’m going to offer up a long thread on a kind of risk management I was trained in as it may help for decision making 🧵
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PMC estimates that US SARS-CoV-2 transmission is higher than 62% of all days since pandemic onset. We are very much #DuringCOVID. The current wave is atypical in two respects. 1) We have a pronounced double peak. The secondary rise in early October violates historical trends. 2) Real-time data quality are terrible. About 1-in-6 CDC contractor sites are offline while a contractor issue is resolved. Additionally, each of the past 6 weeks, the CDC has retroactively corrected levels upward. The magnitude and scope of the corrections are highly atypical. In each case, the corrections go back until early July. In each case, levels increase about 25-40% between the time they are reported and two weeks later, with additional upward corrections as time goes by. These are not one-off corrections, and hence, not related to the twice-annual calibration process or specific sites coming online. It's basically like a balloon is sitting under the wave, and each week, the balloon gets inflated a little more, pushing each phase of the wave higher and higher, week after week. We've added a new feature to our diagnostic systems and hope to have more insight into that soon. Expect that the wave shape may look vastly different in a couple months when the full delayed data come in. THREAD (2/4)
Forecast, showing recent (apparent) double peak.

ALT Forecast, showing recent (apparent) double peak.

Year over year graph, again showing the atypical pattern

ALT Year over year graph, again showing the atypical pattern

Barometer: Levels higher than 62% of all days since pandemic onset

ALT Barometer: Levels higher than 62% of all days since pandemic onset

13 waves. The double peak is highly compressed.

ALT 13 waves. The double peak is highly compressed.

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PMC COVlD Update, Oct 26, 2026 🔥44 states with COVlD outbreaks (see Alt) 🔥Double wave peaks, both at an estimated 950,000 new daily infections 🔥6th week in a row of massive CDC upward retroactive corrections going back to early July THREAD (1/4)
The US has at least 44 states and territories with COVlD outbreaks, a figure identical to last week. The CDC continues to make large, upward retroactive corrections, and we are in a secondary wave peak. States with observed outbreaks include Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Guam, Hawai’i, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, and West Virginia. Additional states with poor monitoring likely have outbreaks based on high levels in bordering counties in adjacent states.

ALT The US has at least 44 states and territories with COVlD outbreaks, a figure identical to last week. The CDC continues to make large, upward retroactive corrections, and we are in a secondary wave peak. States with observed outbreaks include Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Guam, Hawai’i, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, and West Virginia. Additional states with poor monitoring likely have outbreaks based on high levels in bordering counties in adjacent states.

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Isanthrope retweeted
Conor Browne
@brownecfm2h
Two points: first, there is no 'after Covid'. There is 'after the end of societal non-pharmaceutical interventions'. Second, Covid can cause both prolonged fatigue and prolonged cognitive dysfunction. Because Covid is so common, population level effects are inevitable.
Deep Psychology
@DeepPsycho_HQOct 25
After COVID, people's social skills have drastically declined. Many have less patience for each other, and simple interactions can feel awkward. Everyone seems more comfortable staying home and avoiding people.
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The face you make when you’ve been run over three times but the tires miss each time! Pygmy Owl is lucky to only have slight head trauma after being found on the road. The kind member of the public who spotted the bird first thought it was a leaf until he saw it tumble.
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Isanthrope retweeted
Marc Johnson
@SolidEvidence15h
There is something really concerning (and disappointing) going on in the US right now. A dangerous and preventable situation. Let me explain. nextstrain.org/avian-flu/h5n… 1/
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Yes. That’s absolutely the tldr.
samanta@saccharine_sam_20h
basically keep the respie mask tf on in shared air. Don’t remove it. Go somewhere absolutely alone before removing it. Be strict I don’t care. Stop willingly catching covid.
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Here are the studies🧵Covid can cause; Cognitive impairment, brain shrinkage, heart attacks, strokes, kidney damage, lung damage, diabetes, clots & other blood disorders, immunological & neurological disorders. It is multisystem, acute & potentially chronic (1 in 10 infections)🧵
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Isanthrope retweeted
ApocaLiz@Lizzardo7722h
Sharing this again. It'll be a good one!!
calbeargirl.bsky.social
@cb_grlOct 23
Join @Dave_it_up and I for a conversation with @dbdugger about viral persistence in long Covid. We will discuss what parallels we can draw from HIV/AIDS and why ME/CFS conflation has been catastrophic to proper research into long COVID. This is a follow up to this space recorded in July 26 linked below. Come and bring your questions! Set a reminder for my upcoming Space! xitter.cf/i/spaces/1rGmqpy…

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Can we get elle any closer? Mutual aid posts have been performing SO poorly lately. Remember lots of small amounts add up, and sharing a post can do a lot even if you dont have the means to give.
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I’m fortunate that I live with family who take some precautions, mainly due to my health. But I have to do pretty much all the organization: buying masks, air filters, doing research, reminding people. All of this while I’m quite ill and have limited energy.
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Isanthrope retweeted
Heidi (she/her)@CC_PriestOct 24
Replying to @AgnostikGnostik
Love this! I'm in Vancouver and would love to meet a Covid-aware person with a great sense of humour who would like a long term monogamous relationship that is built on a base of friendship and respect. Open to DMs.
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If there are questions about what kind of cancer and chemo for your loved one at home who cannot visit just say that you weren’t even supposed to mention any of it but their oncologist was the one who pulled you aside on the topic of trying to avoid infection in hospital. 8.
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It’s a patriarchal hierarchical system so all the healthcare teams respond to authority and the patient never has authority. That’s why a third party with some medical oversight dictating what you need to do to keep that other person safe will usually be grudgingly accepted. 10.
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The surgical masks is all they’ll ever put on. But if you’re in a well fitted N95 with an air cleaner and door closed it will be good enough. I hope this helps a bit and that everything goes really well for you.
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I don’t know where you are in the States but not everywhere is high prevalence: xitter.cf/michael_hoerger/status…. If it is high prevalence then a solo room with door closed and masks on entry for the staff will be best. 5.
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA
@michael_hoergerOct 17
PMC COVlD Update, Oct 17, 2026 (U.S.) Early Release COVlD levels have rebounded into a secondary peak, as the CDC continues to retroactively correct levels upward. Outbreaks span 44 states (see Alt). Levels are falling in TX, still high out west, & up in the Northeast. 🧵1/3
The US has at least 44 states and territories with COVlD outbreaks. The CDC made large, upward retroactive corrections to prior estimates, and we are now in an apparent secondary peak. States with observed outbreaks include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Guam, Hawai’i, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, U.S. Virgin Islands, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wyoming. Additional states with poor monitoring likely have outbreaks based on high levels in bordering counties in adjacent states.

ALT The US has at least 44 states and territories with COVlD outbreaks. The CDC made large, upward retroactive corrections to prior estimates, and we are now in an apparent secondary peak. States with observed outbreaks include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Guam, Hawai’i, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, U.S. Virgin Islands, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wyoming. Additional states with poor monitoring likely have outbreaks based on high levels in bordering counties in adjacent states.

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It’s better to explain that you have to mask for someone else as that means there’s less likely to be random mental health comments written up in your chart. If you’re not male, it’s better the staff are told you have to keep someone else safe. 7.
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If you have a friend or family member as bouncer they can be the bad guy. Have them lie about the need for you to have masked HCWs in your space - you cannot bring Covid home because family member x is undergoing chemo and they are deemed very vulnerable at present. 6.
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Unfortunately healthcare spaces are the most resistant to mask wearing. But maybe a family or friend can act as a bit of a bouncer - put a sign on your door to request masks on entry. And to have an air cleaner in your room on. 3.
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Hopefully you are not in a shared room on the ward so that with the door shut and your air cleaner on you should be able to eat and drink fairly safely as well. Otherwise have your mask on as much as you can (and is comfortable for you too). 4.
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Creating a thread to answer as best as I can but I don’t have a lot of direct experience. You may be able to search @BarryHunt008’s profile page to find details of how he’s managed several hospital stays successfully as well. 1.
Casey Flux@CaseyFluxOct 24
Replying to @Isanthropia
Thank you! I am always very careful, so I’m stressed about an upcoming surgery that will require me to stay two nights in hospital. Do you have any extra advice for hospital stays?
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If it’s possible to negotiate ahead of time asking them to be sure in post-op that they help you place your n95 back on your face when it’s safe to do so that can help. 3.
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