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Joined December 2023
Axios reports that a new operation against Iran is being prepared, with potential targets including leadership sites, energy facilities and critical infrastructure. The reported plan involves a week of intense strikes, while Saudi Arabia has reportedly urged Trump to give diplomacy more time before moving ahead. If these reports are accurate, the next few days could be crucial. The main question is whether negotiations can make progress before the conflict escalates further. Any major strikes on Iran's energy and infrastructure could have consequences beyond the battlefield, affecting regional security, oil markets and the wider Middle East. For now, these are reported plans, not confirmation that the operation has begun.
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Yemen’s Houthis are putting growing pressure on Saudi Arabia, with a wide range of military and economic sites appearing on their list of claimed targets. These include airports in Riyadh, Dammam and Najran, an airbase in Khamis Mushait, oil facilities in Yanbu and Rabigh, and pumping stations connected to the East–West oil pipeline. Targeting these locations carries wider implications because Saudi Arabia relies heavily on its oil infrastructure, while its airports and military bases play an important role in the country’s security. Missile interceptions have been reported near Taif and Yanbu, while debris from intercepted missiles has fallen in parts of Makkah, Jeddah, Taif and Rabigh. In Rabigh, the situation involves two separate reports. The Houthis claimed to have targeted the Rabigh oil refinery, a key part of Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure. Separately, debris from an intercepted ballistic missile fell in the Masturah area of Rabigh Governorate. However, there has been no independent confirmation that the refinery was directly hit, and no casualties or damage were detailed in the official statement about the falling debris. At the same time, the fighting continues inside Yemen, where attacks have been reported against coast guard facilities in Aden, including sites in the Tawahi district. Airstrikes have also been reported in parts of Sana’a and Hamdan. The Houthis say their operations are a response to attacks on Yemen, while the Saudi-led coalition continues its military campaign against Houthi positions. What makes this situation particularly serious is that the confrontation is no longer limited to a single battlefield or a handful of military positions. Airports, oil installations, military bases and transport infrastructure are all part of the wider picture. Any prolonged disruption to oil facilities or major transport routes could have consequences beyond the immediate conflict, while continued strikes and interceptions also increase the risks for people living in affected areas.
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The UK government is asking people to keep basic emergency supplies at home that could last them for at least three days. The advice is part of a new campaign called “Be Prepared,” which aims to help households deal with unexpected situations. People are being advised to store drinking water, long-life food, essential medicines and a first-aid kit. Other useful items include a flashlight, a radio that runs on batteries or can be powered by hand, a power bank and some cash. The recommended amount of drinking water is around three litres per person per day. The government says emergencies do not always come in the form of major disasters. Severe storms, wildfires, cyberattacks and disruptions to supply chains can also affect daily life. A cyberattack, for example, could disrupt supermarket payment systems and leave people unable to pay with their bank cards. This is one reason officials want households to think ahead rather than wait until a crisis begins. Keeping some cash at home, along with essential supplies, could make a difference if normal services are temporarily unavailable. Germany has already issued similar guidance, recommending that people keep enough food and essential items to last for 10 days. The US government’s Ready gov website advises storing around one gallon of water per person per day, or approximately 3.8 litres, to cover drinking and basic sanitation needs. A manual can opener is another small but useful item to keep at home, especially for people storing canned food. The idea behind these recommendations is simple: having a few essentials ready can make it easier for families to manage if shops, electricity or payment services are disrupted.
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Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has warned that any new attack on Iran could further escalate the conflict across the region. “Military intervention in Iran is absolutely not a solution. Currently, no one supports it,” Fidan told reporters after a meeting of the R4+E3 group in Istanbul, held in this format for the first time. Meanwhile, reports suggest that the United States and Israel have drawn up plans for possible new strikes on Iran following the US midterm elections. However, these plans have not been independently confirmed.
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BREAKING: An explosion has been reported in eastern Tehran, with air defense systems reportedly active in the area.
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Turkey is preparing to seek parliamentary approval to send military personnel to Saudi Arabia under a trilateral defence agreement with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, Reuters reports, citing a ruling AK Party lawmaker. The proposed deployment would initially focus on defensive support. Turkish military specialists and technicians could help Saudi Arabia with air defence systems, electronic warfare equipment and other military capabilities. According to the lawmaker, Turkish personnel would not take part in offensive operations. The defence agreement, signed by the three countries in August, is awaiting parliamentary ratification in Turkey. Officials say Ankara’s contribution is also expected to include military equipment, intelligence sharing and weapons systems. No deployment has taken place under the agreement so far. Turkey is also expected to join a Saudi-led effort focused on maritime security in the Red Sea. If approved, the plans would expand military cooperation between Ankara and Riyadh, although Turkish officials maintain that any military role under the agreement will remain defensive.
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Russia could have up to 100 nuclear warheads in Kaliningrad, close to NATO territory, according to The Times. Satellite images reportedly show the construction of a powerful radar complex in the region, with a range of up to 3,200 km. Kaliningrad is also believed to be playing a role in disrupting GPS signals. Lithuanian estimates suggest that at least 36 antennas have been installed in the region to interfere with navigation systems by sending false signals. However, the full extent of these activities remains unclear.
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A Belarusian transport aircraft has landed at Tabriz International Airport in Iran. According to reports, Belarus is involved in the production of radar and air defense systems.
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Right-wing groups have taken to the streets of Lyon, France, to oppose looting and vandalism. Their slogan is: “The streets and France belong to us!” Anti-vandalism patrols are also out on the streets tonight, with members keeping watch amid concerns over looting and damage to property.
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A drone has crashed in Lithuania after NATO fighter jets were unable to locate it because of poor weather conditions. According to LRT, Lithuanian radar systems picked up the drone at around 6 a.m. The wreckage was later discovered in the Pasvalys district. After the initial detection, NATO fighter jets took off from Šiauliai air base to search for the target, but bad visibility prevented the pilots from making visual contact with it. Preliminary information from the Lithuanian military suggests the drone may have entered the country from Poland. Officials believe it could have originated in Ukraine, although its exact route and circumstances remain unclear.
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After Saudi Arabia and the UAE, now ties between Turkey and Azerbaijan also seem to be weakening. Both countries have had very close relations for years, but things appear to be changing, with growing distance between them day by day.
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Trump: We will soon make a decision regarding the issue of Iran.
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Iran has kept much of its missile and drone production capacity despite months of US and Israeli airstrikes, according to Bloomberg, which cites Western officials familiar with intelligence assessments. The officials say Tehran can still produce weapons and replenish its stockpiles. One source said Iran retains a substantial supply of ballistic missiles and some anti-ship weapons. The report also says Russia has been supplying missiles to Iran. Israeli estimates put Iran’s pre-war ballistic missile stockpile at around 2,500. Western intelligence assessments published in June suggested Iran had retained roughly three-quarters of its pre-war weapons stockpiles. Bloomberg Economics estimates that Iran has launched more than 4,000 Shahed drones and at least 2,000 ballistic missiles since the conflict began. Western officials say Tehran still has the firepower to respond if US attacks resume, while recent attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz have added to regional security concerns.
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Etihad Airways has cancelled all flights between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh until October 19 following the attacks on King Khalid International Airport. The airline has also cancelled some flights to Jeddah and Dammam as disruptions to air travel in Saudi Arabia continue.
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Saudi Arabia is investigating how Houthi drones and missiles managed to hit Riyadh airport despite its air defense systems. Preliminary findings suggest the Houthis used drones alongside cruise and ballistic missiles during the attacks. At least 13 people were killed and more than 300 injured, according to the report. Riyadh is also pushing for greater U.S. involvement against the Houthis, while President Trump is weighing possible military strikes.
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Saudi Arabia has extended the shutdown of King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh as authorities continue safety checks following a series of deadly attacks. GACA reported that Saturday’s attack killed at least 12 people and injured 309. Another attack on Sunday caused further injuries, while earlier attacks on Riyadh and Abha airports also left people dead. Several international airlines have suspended flights to Riyadh as the situation continues to affect air travel.
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IEA countries are moving to speed up the release of oil reserves as pressure on energy markets continues. The 32 member countries agreed in March to release 400 million barrels to help deal with supply problems linked to the Middle East conflict and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. IEA chief Fatih Birol says around 325 million barrels have already been released. Governments are also focusing on diesel supplies as the market faces growing pressure. The release is intended to ease short-term price rises, but it won’t fix the wider problems affecting global oil supplies. IEA members still hold around 1.1 billion barrels in government reserves.
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Saudi Arabia have reportedly confirmed 12 deaths and 309 injuries in the attack on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh. Some of the injured are in critical condition.
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The US reportedly offered Russia a deal that included unfreezing assets, allowing the sale of a stake in Lukoil and reopening Belarusian potash exports in return for a partial ceasefire, according to The New York Times. Ukraine wanted security guarantees and more military support as part of the negotiations, but the two sides failed to reach an agreement.
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Saudi Arabia will go ahead with two major international events despite the recent attacks on King Khalid International Airport. The World Oil Congress is scheduled to run from Sunday to Thursday, with oil and gas executives, foreign officials and ministers expected to attend. Organizers say the event will proceed as planned and have shared alternative travel routes for visitors, including a four-hour drive from Dammam to Riyadh. The Future Investment Initiative, Saudi Arabia’s major investment forum, is also scheduled for October 26–29. Organizers have confirmed that it will go ahead as planned.
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