Head of OTC @wintermute_t | Ex-Macro now Crypto, Vol & Derivatives. Keynesian beauty contest participant & amateur Crossfit athlete. Views are my own

Joined August 2022
2026 has been the year of subsidized compute. 2027 will show the reality of compute economics.
Some thoughts regarding the current satiation with OpenAI. OpenAI is clearly in a difficult position right now, especially as compute capacity is becoming an increasingly serious problem. We recently saw new sign-ups for the $200 subscription temporarily suspended. Shortly afterward came the major blow: usage rates were effectively cut in half across the $200 plan and all the other plans, with GPT 6.1 Sol introduced as a highly efficient alternative to compensate. The usage allowances were generous at first, but inference was slow. It has since become faster, but it still has a way to go. Personally, I still prefer GPT 6 Astra on Medium, but with the reduced subscription limits, I will soon be unable to use it as much as I normally do. Worse still, I won’t be able to use future top-tier models in the Astra family to the same extent either. I don’t think this is down to malice on OpenAI’s part, but simply to how severe its compute constraints have become. Somewhat bafflingly, the headline announcement at Dev Day was the always-on agent, which I have yet to find particularly compelling. That makes it easy for Anthropic to position itself as the appealing alternative right now. I still consider Opus 5.5 the better model, particularly when compared directly with GPT 6.1. With Fable 5.5 due to be released soon, OpenAI is under even more pressure to respond. Honestly, I no longer understand OpenAI’s vision. By reducing its subscription allowances, OpenAI has made it easy for Anthropic to present itself as the better alternative and draw users back to Claude ahead of Anthropic’s IPO. OpenAI has done itself a real disservice. OpenAI’s recent communication has also been far from good. Instead of speaking plainly about the problems, it framed the reduction in weekly usage limits as an efficiency improvement, as though users were actually getting more than before. I honestly don’t believe that. Which leaves me wondering: Quo vadis, OpenAI?
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Pretty surreal feeling having a crypto party on the floor of the @NYSE. Already tripled in size at @wintermute_t US in a year and more growth to come!
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(•_•) We're also hiring... ( •_•)>⌐■-■ (⌐■_■) Business Development Manager (Sports / Prediction Markets) 📍 London / New York / Remote Apply → hubs.li/Q04xlGPj0
| ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄ ̄|            We’re hiring |___________|                 \ (•◡•) /                   \     /                      ---                     |   | Open roles in London, NYC, Singapore, and more: Trading ╰ Algorithmic Trader ╰ Machine Learning Researcher ╰ Options Trader ╰ Prediction Markets Trader ╰ Quant Researcher (MFT Focus) ╰ Trading Analyst Business Development ╰ BD & Partnerships Director/Manager ╰ Insitutional BD Director/Manager Technology ╰ C++ Quant Developer ╰ C++ Quant Developer - Options ╰ C++ Trading Platform Developer ╰ Core Developer (Python) ╰ Infrastructure Support Engineer DeFi ╰ DeFi Algorithmic Trader ╰ DeFi Algorithmic Trading Internship ╰ Graduate DeFi Algorithmic Trader Product ╰ Product Engineering - Team Lead ╰ Product Manager
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4 days left to apply!
4 days left to apply R[3]sidency x Construct is looking for founders in crypto, fintech, AI, and robotics 8 teams, $300K each, 30+ mentors Take the weekend to get your application in Apply → wintermute.com/construct
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One of the cleanest benefits of 24/7 trading + atomic settlement is capital efficiency, especially in margin management... Pleased to share we now accept @xStocksFi as collateral for derivatives trades!
xStocks are live on Wintermute's OTC desk @xStocksFi are now accepted as collateral under our dynamic margin methodology You can post them to margin your derivatives trading with us and to increase your spot intraday credit line
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Oh boy
Gang. The cover of the fuking Economist is literally Jensen as a magician
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Not enough people are talking about the collateral utility unlocked through tokenization. Tokenized collateral will release $billions of stagnant, inert high quality, liquid assets back into the economy while ironically reducing risk. How is this possible? Usually, if you want to reduce risk, you actually increase collateral and decrease capital efficiency. This is intuitive; it makes sense. Cleared swaps often require 7 days of risk; uncleared swaps…10 days. Together, these pool are ~$1 trillion in size. (Not small). Why so many days? Well, it comes down to a few things. First, traditional markets close. If you have an insolvency going into a long weekend, you already lose 3 days. Second, during a period of insolvency, typically there is an attempt to transfer or port collateral to a solvent counterparty. This is clunky. Finally, liquidity matters as you delta hedge the book. Through 24/7 markets, you get your 3 days back. And that transferability thing? Much easier. Glad to see the 💡going on at the @ecb.
NEW: An @ecb Executive Board member says central bank money should move onto the blockchain, using smart contracts to instantly adjust interest rates, collateral requirements, and access conditions.
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GG - thanks for hosting! @nicolas4vx
Paradigm poker night #2 yesterday Ended up being biggest pnl vs 2 tables of traders from the best firms and hedge funds If you think you can beat me we'll host next one mid September, dm for a seat
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Fear & Greed overlays are circulating again. Two things worth stating. The index is built largely from trailing price, vol and volume, so it prints red in drawdowns and green in rallies by construction - colour-coding spot by regime is close to circular. Conditioning forward returns on regime gives 1-2% at 30d (on a 45v annual asset!). Compare different periods and results flipflop so the number isn't stable ... OH and there are only 6-10 distinct episodes in each tail. Would not be building a strategy on this.
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Jake O retweeted
Hard assets right now.
BESSENT COULD UNLEASH $1 TRILLION ON BOND MARKET The US Treasury could tap its nearly $1 trillion cash account to fund expanded bond buybacks, potentially giving it major firepower to push long-term yields lower. Treasury recently doubled minimum buybacks of longer-dated securities to $4 billion, with Bessent signaling even larger purchases are possible. Using existing Treasury cash could strengthen the program’s market impact while reducing the need for Federal Reserve involvement.
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Jake O retweeted
fyi onchain nerds - every year @wintermute_t launches a series of onchain challenges that are really good. new batch is live
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JUST IN 🚨: A man was discovered with almost 90% of his brain missing, while living an almost normal life sharing on-chain movements from a market makers pubic wallet.
JUST IN 🚨: A Man was Discovered with almost 90% of his brain mass missing, while leading an almost normal life.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
This news is 20 years old. Not "JUST IN 🚨". nature.com/news/2007/0707…
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Michael Lewis RN
Ken Griffin says Citadel unwound 80% of Situational Awareness risk in $4B worth of trades trib.al/FakNlFs
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Fully agree. Hard to switch headspace when the market turns, especially after the space has been so beaten up this year - but zoom out and positioning doesn't yet show full participation: > OI well below YTD highs, let alone '25/4 > Basis still sub-5% > Skew only just flipped positive > Wings still cheap The speed at which OI has been added, and the size of BTC rally from the lows DOES mean it's going to be volatile ... but hard to argue positioning is 'stretched' here in a new regime.
don't try to outsmart the market in this environment. this is the biggest mistake people make at the beginning of every cycle. they are stuck with bear marekt mentality.
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There's a new kid on the block!
We really are living through a bizarre series of rolling bubbles where everyone is either ‘all-in’ on a theme or just not interested….
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BESSENT: BUYBACKS COULD BE BIGGER THAN THE $4B WE ANNOUCED
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Great to sit down with @options_insight / @DeribitOfficial on Tuesday to discuss macro, flow + a healthy dose of vol. My thesis remains unchanged: We're no longer in a market where a rising tide will lift all ships. Low floats stop getting rewarded from here, and asset selection becomes the whole game this cycle. Yesterday was a reminder of how under-owned the asset class currently is & provides the backdrop for violent moves that can overextend way beyond 'fair value'.... we're setting up for a super active Q4 and feels like the start of something larger. GG youtube.com/watch?v=q5JZx9Te…
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Higher prices feed new narratives……
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Today was a moment. They are rare
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