@ata_bahrami @IzadiFoad @mb_ghalibaf Prof. Pape (Obama’s strategist behind JCPOA) “In fact when president Bush invaded Iraq (2003)...it was to use it as a giant aircraft carrier for invasion of Iran”.
youtube.com/watch?v=rpDZ6GoU…
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@Pataramesh US natural gas in negatives. Not as bad a sign as the other two on the list.
Things to watch as what’s next:
- Trump to roll out fuel price control in US
- Announcement of offshore drilling by US companies
- Natural gas price reduction in US
Those are signs that US is in this for long-haul & getting ready for conscription in 3-6 months for ground invasion
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@ata_bahrami @IzadiFoad peace terms must not be sovereign rights (enrichment, Hormuz). It must be: reparations; removal of US forces; extraditing persons responsible for war; assets release; Israel’s denuclearization; ending military aid to Israel; peace across resistance fronts.
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@Pataramesh 1/6
With their 10-point plan, Iranian leadership showed themselves to be naive and incompetent when it comes to international politics.
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@ata_bahrami @IzadiFoad @Jedaal
Iran is at the brink of becoming a world power on par with top 3, however a costly one as war will not end without US defeat. As US escalates with no other good options, so does the cost & hence it’s crucial to preempt internal division makers.
Powerful example of the Escalation Trap in action. As I said on my substack pre-Feb 28 bombing, the predictable failure to change Iran’s regime would lead to major pressure for “limited” ground ops despite promises that would never happen. See the substack to stay ahead
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@cirnosad By far the best movie based on real events of this war:
youtube.com/shorts/4kRf4FDPA…
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@ir_cityofsun Plan is taking Chabahar Port & talk about Khark is misdirection. Chabahar is at entrance of Gulf of Oman, can connect with Baluch separatists there & India has been there for over 10yrs ie local connection, agents & probably even supplies are already there.
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@araghchi I always assumed this is a very well known policy paper in Iranian elite circles, but apparently not. Have you ever read this? If so how come you were always surprised & didn’t realize negotiations are a ruse?
brookings.edu/wp-content/upl…
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I wonder if he has passed it by Pezeshkian’s kids and Iran’s ambassador to Azerbaijan? Quite a lucrative businesses he is going to touch there. I wonder if they make some calls about @s_m_marandi
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@s_m_marandi u know like Zarif, this is a theatrical war to get rid of Ayatollah & hardline IRGC & Army leaders. That was the real “negotiations”, comparing plans and lists. What happens to sinking aircraft acrrier? Hitting other sides’ leaders? It’s a managed destruction of Iran
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