Chief Economist at the Resolution Foundation. Previous lives at the Bank of England and in the civil service. Focussed on all things economic-policy related.
London, England
Joined October 2018
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At the @NIESRorg London Macro Policy Forum we’re talking about the monetary policy outlook. Great panel with @swatdhingraLSE, Jan Vlieghe and others. Clear theme: how @bankofengland deals with the gathering energy price shock. Difficult times ahead…
Next up is the simple topic of QT and the public finances(!) here with my previous @bankofengland colleague Paul Fisher in full flow. Key issue here is the role QT is playing in making it harder to hit 2% inflation AND bring borrowing down.
Finally, it’s all things AI related here at the @NIESRorg #LMPF2026. Great panel including @KanishkaNarayan, @DianeCoyle1859 and chaired by @haskelecon. Mostly focused on growth potential rather than the end of humanity. Mostly…
We are talking about how to reform housing taxes @resfoundation this morning. Taxes in this area are a mess - so it’s time we got some proper reform (take note @andyburnham). Do read our report on how to put this right: resolutionfoundation.org/pub…
BoE did not follow the Fed and ECB today, leaving rates on hold at 3.75%. But the big news was on how it unwinds QE, allowing the @UK_DMO to manage the process. Both of these are good news on the cost of borrowing but there was also bad news on the cost of living...
So theres good news for the Chancellor today in the form of falling yields off the back of the sensible DMO announcement on unwinding QE. BUT the need for support for families struggling with energy bills looks urgent. Support must be targeted. Here's how: resolutionfoundation.org/pub…
Finally, this still looks like a difficult Budget. And it's not clear that today's fall in yields will even count towards headroom estimates (@OBR_UK keep its market window secret). So repairing the public finances must be a priority here- for more see:
resolutionfoundation.substac…
JamesSmithRF retweeted
🚨 New on our substack: crowd-pleasing cost of living measures risk being self-defeating
Ruth Curtice & @JamesSmithRF outline the potential pitfalls of blanket cost of living support at a time of high borrowing costs and pacey price rises 👇️
buff.ly/yAb71H9
CPI inflation jumps back up to 3.1% in August from 2.9% in July. This was in line with market expectations but above the BoE forecast (from July). The worse news is that with rising oil and gas prices there is more of this to come... Short thread to follow.
The balancing act for the Chancellor is to find ways to support families through the difficult winter ahead while also prioritising keeping borrowing falling and ensuring credibility-building levels of fiscal buffers. This means *targeted* support (see: resolutionfoundation.org/pub…).