Sell-Side Equity Analyst | Hunting multibaggers before Wall Street wakes up | Spotting technical alpha & hidden 10x gems
Joined November 2024
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International was the biggest surprise for me – $CELH
Revenue grew 78% yoy in Q3 2026, reaching $41m. That's already a $164m annualized run rate, and we're still ahead of Alani Nu's international expansion in 2027
Growth is coming from both established Nordic markets and newer markets like the UK, France, Australia and others
International still represents less than 5% of total revenue, so the whitespace is huge
Even after $APP 20%+ rally to $320 post Q3, I still find the valuation pretty undemanding
We're talking about roughly 16x 2027E earnings for a business expected to grow 25%, based on consensus estimates that will likely be revised higher after the Q3 print
The real magic hasn't happened yet
Earnings revisions + multiple expansion. That's the kind of combination that can turn a great investment into a multibagger
John Fieldly, CEO of $CELH, said:
“We delivered record quarterly revenue in the third quarter of 2026, reflecting the strength of our scaled, multi-brand Modern Energy platform and continued execution of our total energy portfolio strategy. We continued to make progress to improve CELSIUS brand performance, while advancing operational execution across the portfolio.
With today’s brand-led leadership appointments, including welcoming Alex Zigliara to lead brand CELSIUS and appointing Rishi Daing to lead Rockstar Energy & Emerging Growth, we are further strengthening execution against our priorities: realizing the benefits of our integrated platform, improving margins through revenue growth management, supply chain and cost initiatives, and positioning each brand for sustainable growth.”
Core $CELH revenue declined 6% YoY in Q3, honestly better than I expected
A good part of the weakness still comes from inventory adjustments, SKU rationalization and softness in the club channel. Distributor orders also lagged retail trends by around 6pp, largely due to inventory rebalancing within PepsiCo's network
Retail sales were still down 7%, so there's clearly work to do
But I think the brand could stabilize as early as Q4 and return to growth in 2027. Celsius deliberately pulled back on innovation this year while sorting out its portfolio and distribution. With more new products and potentially more shelf space next year, I think the setup looks considerably better
I'm increasingly confident we're getting closer to the end of this adjustment period. Looking forward to the earnings call, particularly what management has to say about the innovation pipeline and shelf space opportunities heading into 2027
Margin pressure in Q3 26 does not worry me $CELH
Q3 gross margin fell 4.5pp yoy to 46.8%, or 1.3pp qoq, mainly due to higher aluminum and fuel costs, as well as the growing DSD mix
What matters to me is that raw material costs excluding aluminum and fuel actually improved, and most of the structural margin improvements are still ahead of us
As Alani and Rockstar become fully integrated, Celsius should benefit from greater purchasing scale, lower freight costs, better inventory management and a more efficient production network. Add the second North Carolina line, direct sourcing and better pricing and promotional discipline, and there's still plenty of room for improvement through 2027–28
We're already seeing operating leverage in SG&A, which grew just 7.4% against 16.8% revenue growth, bringing SG&A down to 26.1% of sales from 28.4% a year ago
I still see a realistic path back toward 51–52% gross margins over time, with further upside to earnings as revenue scales
Imo, the real Inflection is underway
LFG - $CELH IS BACK ON TRACK BABY
CELSIUS $CELH Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $847.2M (Est. $796M) 🟢; +17% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.41 (Est. $0.35) 🟢; -2% YoY
🔹 EPS: $0.39
🔹 Gross Margin: 46.8%; -450 bps YoY
Segment Net Revenue:
🔹 CELSIUS: $356.8M; -6% YoY
🔹 Alani Nu: $410.1M; +24% YoY
🔹 Rockstar Energy: $80.3M
🔹 North America: $806.2; +15% YoY
🔹 International: $41.0; +78% YoY
Announcements:
🔹 Brand-Led Structure: Alex Zigliara to lead CELSIUS; Rishi Daing to lead Rockstar Energy & Emerging Growth
Other Q3 Metrics:
🔹 Portfolio Retail Sales: +14.7%
🔹 U.S. RTD Energy Share: 20.7%
🔹 Alani Nu Retail Sales: +57.9%
Key Updates:
🔹 Portfolio Contribution: ~28% of zero-sugar U.S. energy category’s $773M growth
Comments:
🔸 “We delivered record quarterly revenue in the third quarter of 2026, reflecting the strength of our scaled, multi-brand Modern Energy platform and continued execution of our total energy portfolio strategy.”
🔸 “With today’s brand-led leadership appointments, including welcoming Alex Zigliara to lead brand CELSIUS and appointing Rishi Daing to lead Rockstar Energy & Emerging Growth, we are further strengthening execution against our priorities”
WOW $ELF IS ABSOLUTELY A BEAST
E.L.F. BEAUTY $ELF Q2’27 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $520.8M (Est. $470M) 🟢; +51% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $1.21 (Est. $0.60) 🟢
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $123.4M (Est. $75M) 🟢; +86% YoY
🔹 Adjusted Net Income: $72.7M (Est. $34.9M) 🟢
Raises FY27 Guide:
🔹 Revenue: $2.00B-$2.03B (Est. $1.98B) 🟢
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $421M-$427M (Est. $401M) 🟢
🔹 Adj. EPS: $3.82-$3.86 (Est. $3.63) 🟢
Other Q2 Metrics:
🔹 Gross Margin: 71%; +160 bps YoY
Key Updates:
🔹 rhode Fair Value Adjustment: $17.7M
Comments:
🔸 “With this momentum, we are raising our full-year net sales guidance to 22 to 24 percent.”
OH MAN, $APP SMASHED EARNINGS
APPLOVIN $APP Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $2.18B (Est. $2.08B) 🟢; +55% YoY
🔹 EPS: $4.30 (Est. $4.04) 🟢; +76% YoY
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $1.84B (Est. $1.73B) 🟢; +59% YoY
🔹 Net Income: $1.44B (Est. $1.37B) 🟢; +72% YoY
Q4 Guide:
🔹 Revenue: $2.37B-$2.40B (Est. $2.25B) 🟢
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $2.00B-$2.03B (Est. $1.88B) 🟢
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 84%-85%
Other Q3 Metrics:
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $1.42B
Capital Return:
🔹 Buybacks: 4.1M shares for $1.4B
🔹 Repurchase Authorization: Increased by $3.2B to $3.6B
Waymo is reportedly targeting 20,000 robotaxis by the end of 2027, versus just 2,000+ on $UBER platform
But Uber already has roughly 120,000 vehicles committed by its AV partners over the coming years
The market is too focused on who's ahead today. Uber doesn't need to win the autonomy race. It needs enough players to win it
I think Uber eventually flips Waymo in fleet size, and the market is underestimating that possibility