Changing the initial conditions of a model and rerunning it many times gives you multiple forecast tracks for a tropical system. When all the various runs are clustered tightly together, confidence in where a tropical system will go is high. When there's a big spread over a large distance, confidence is low. Lee is locked in to move west-northwest for the next 5 days. There's also high confidence the system will turn north by the middle of next week although precisely where is still uncertain. I'm cautiously optimistic Lee will miss us far to the east but that's not a guarantee yet. The least amount of confidence is north of the Carolinas. That makes sense since that's 8-10 days from now when the models often perform poorly because of so many moving parts. Small errors now can become huge ones down the road. #scwx #ncwx

Tropical Storm #Lee is nearly a hurricane. It's expected to rapidly intensify and become an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane on Friday. Not out of the question it becomes a Category 5 over the weekend. #scw #ncwx