John Willis

You are probably wondering what is happening on the 🇺🇦🇵🇱 border and why the protests are currently culminating into an all out blockage? I couldn't find a sufficient summary in English, so I guess I need to do it myself. This will be my best try, not necessarily giving the full picture, but much of it. It's not that simple, but let me try to explain it to all of you living outside of Poland and trying to make some sense out of it. Ukrainian wheat, corn, colza etc. are being sold on Polish market with dumping prices throwing local farmers out of business, and packing up storage capacities, which gives them close to zero chance to sell, or if they do, they sell much below production costs. Obviously, the market prices for these type of products fell by 2-3 times. Out of around 24 mln tones of storage in Poland, Ukrainian products took up above 10 mln at the end of 2023. Poland is a major food producer, therefore it used the capacity mainly for the local farmers. Why is Ukrainian companies sell it like that? Because it's cheaper to cross the border and dump it in the first available storage and go back for more, than driving up all the way through half of Europe. Transferring large amounts of wheat or corn up to Germany or France takes a lot more time and effort, and therefore is less profitable. Why do local Polish merchant companies buy it? Because it's cheaper and they are into business not charity. In regards of food for Africa or Asia, that's not transferred all that much through land routes. Black Sea remains the main transit direction, due to huge efficiency and large tonnage. Another issue is that 🇺🇦agricultural production is not regulated by the strict EU measures, and imported grain is not properly tested for quality (no available resources to go through such unprecedented tonnage), which in past caused incidents with so called "technical wheat" being used for baking purposes, which should not have happened. News about it made a big splash in the society, an outrage. Around that time first protests emerged and to stabilize the situation (back in early 2023), previous government decided to temporarily block the import of grain (plus some other food products later on). Although, in overall, the transit was supposed to be ongoing without any interruptions, as well as at no point did they block military, medical or humanitarian aid, or other products. Sadly, a couple of rather unfortunate sentences spoken by Ukrainian authorities, including president Zelensky accusing Poland of cooperating with Russia and putting a knife into Ukraine's back was received with a sense of ungratefulness and hurt. Largely because, it's known that from the very 1st day of invasion Poland, on every level of awareness, from society up to top government, put a lot of effort providing unconditional help to Ukraine and its citizens. It doesn't seem like this attitude is similar within Kyiv. Meanwhile, 🇵🇱NIK (Supreme Audit Office), an institution which sole purpose is the evaluation and audit of the revenue and expenditure of the state and all institutions and corporations that make use of public funds, concluded that some imported grain didn't meet the standard of Polish regulations. Part of it was due to the fact that edible wheat was classified as technical to improve the pace of border clearance procedures (remember? Ukraine couldn't export through Black Sea so haste was needed), but in some cases the quality was below the minimum requirements, had GMO in a single tested case (it's banned in Poland), prohibited level of pesticide (7 cases), pests (210 cases), there were 3 cases of contamination with salmonella and 37 cases of contamination with fumigation agent. Of course, everything depends on what was the final purpose of the product - food or for example, fuel ingredient. NIK blamed Polish government for insufficient plan, regulations and mechanism in organization of Ukrainian transit, control of the import and limiting the impact it had on the local market. To make it more complicated, let's add some depth. In a market as described above, Polish farmers get handicapped by the regulations, and due to agriculture structure, are often individual people, while Ukrainian companies are usually huge, international corporations, free from similar constrains (because they produce outside of EU) which in addition use their leverage on European politics (they have the money and connections) for their own gains. From what I`m being told, Ukrainian farmers are also faced with this monopoly, forcing them to sell with little profits, but that's another issue (an oligarchy within Ukrainian market). It's a little bit the same with the truckers. Their issue is with Ukrainian carriers taking side jobs on the EU market while not being restricted by local regulations, and therefore taking away their (in this case Polish, as Poland has the biggest lorry fleet in EU) carriage with lower prices and unlimited access to the market. So to get it straight - Ukrainian drivers enter the market to take out transit, but while going back they are picking up goods by offering lower prices for their transport. Please have in mind that European countries constantly "fight" with each other over parts of the common market, which is regulated by the common law set in Brussels. From obvious reasons there's no real "free market" because cheaper competition from one country can hurt producers in another. One side will always expand on the costs of the other. Thus, limited access, and particular quotas introduced for many production branches and services. They have to stick with it. If they find that a regulation is insufficient or uneven, they take it up to the ministry to work on a different solution. So when I say that they "fight", I mean that these are usually some protests coupled with long political negotiations. Now back to Ukraine, which suddenly became an outside player working unconstrained by the bonds (that often take years of negotiations) and turned it upside down. No wonder that the people most affected are furious. No one is (or was, because the disagreement worsens the sentiment) against helping, but nobody is willing to fill in for bankruptcy for the sake of Ukraine. I think that it will never work this way. Another, although smaller problem, if we compare it to the above scope, is that the very preferential treatment that Ukrainian companies provided by the EU, wasn't on pair with how things were within Ukraine itself, in regards to foreign truckers. There was a lot of complaining about electronic queue system introduced by Ukrainian border service, that either didn't work properly or was abused. Also, it's worth noting that blocking of the border was first introduced by Ukrainian authorities, right before the war. So the trade dispute has a long tradition. I`m also quite confident that Polish authorities (both old and new) failed to properly secure the Polish-Ukrainian border, and the resources present there, both human and technical, are not enough to prevent smuggling, corruption and other criminal activities. In part, that can be blamed to the fact that the border with hostile Belarus is under consts army and border guard supervision and sucks up all the spare manpower. But there's also a purely political issue. With the beginning of last year Poland entered a long period of elections: first parliamentary (Nov'23), now local (May'24), then to the European Parliament and next year - presidential. All very important, due to the deep political struggle between formerly ruling PiS and to some extent united opposition. It affects countries institutions, justice department, courts and so on. And there are no prisoners taken, I may add. It's brutal. Regardless of how do you treat what I`ve written above, this is the point of view that is probably closest to the truth as far as most of Poles think. I`m far from putting the blame fully on Ukraine, or Poland. I believe that the authorities of both states are to blame, and I would also accuse the European Commission, that fails to act accordingly to solve the matter instead remains tacit. As I understand it now 🇺🇦government is in constant contact with the 🇵🇱side, and the negotiations are ongoing. There's just not enough info available for me to judge if there's a hope for quick solution or not. From what was leaked to the public during past months, Kiyv didn't want to agree to any limitations in grain export, because the previously signed agreement with EU didn't mention any, and therefore believed that Brussels will be able to force Warsaw into subjugation, but it doesn't work that way. European Union is not a federation, neither some single state entity, or an empire. Brussels has limited tools to act in such cases even if a given law would be clearly violated. And that, only if there would be no doubts about circumstances, while in this case, the sole fact that the current situation destabilizes Polish market and public order, is a valid reason for Warsaw to act in one sided manner, and i.e. put a grain embargo into effect. As long as Kiyv doesn't agree to heed to the needs of the other side, it won't achieve a stable resolution to the problem. Even with the radical change of government, Warsaw's stance remains largely the same. The length of the dispute, and a couple of unfortunate statements by politicians (both Polish and Ukrainian) paved the way to disinformation and Russian propaganda, coupled with a clear diversion and free reign of groups associated with sowing prorussian dissent. Modus operandi well known from other countries, a hallmark of Russian hybrid warfare. All that generated hatred and suspicion between both nations and spread set of lies and half truths about mafia controlling the transit, luxury goods described as humanitarian aid being imported to Ukraine, people dying in the long queues of stranded trucks, toxic grain and so on. The protest on the border is far for being controlled by the authorities (in my opinion) and keeps spiraling out of control now spreading further into the country, with some intentions of blocking not only the border, but also highways, sea ports and railroad junctions. It's hard to tell if anybody really controls it, or is it just an outburst of frustration skillfully pumped by someone who has interest in pouring some fuel into the fire. I personally publicly called the Polish authorities to act, and I know that most of Poles while sympathetic to the described problems of farmers and truckers generated by the grain transit, also DO NOT support such way of protesting (it's ok to protest, but not like that) and consider it if not criminal, then not less than inappropriate and shameful. Still, the ongoing argument and the fact that there's little if any will to consider the needs of the other side of the fence, spoils the blood and feeds growing grudges, therefore enabling the work of useful idiots and agents. I imagine, the burden of such sentiment as in Poland, is probably on pair with Ukrainian feeling of being betrayed in front of ruthless enemy. Neither is based on solid grounds. Both sentiments are emphasized and actively used by Russian agents to sow dissent between societies. What can we do? Force politicians to reach a temporary agreement meeting half way in order to breach the gap? That's the minimum we could hope for from them, but I encourage you to try and burst your informational bubble and try to wear the boots of the other side. I feel that mutual respect and understanding each other, is what we need in order to win against the common enemy. If you find the above description of the problem interesting, please like and share it, to battle the lies of disinformation. Thank you for your attention. P.S. I`ve took the graphs from NIK report published on 23rd Nov 2023.