Senior Business Economist: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas - Houston Branch; Energy, regional analysis, public speaker [my opinions are mine alone]
Houston, TX
Joined May 2018
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Jesse Thompson retweeted
#China has burned through much of a petrochemicals glut built up by years of overproduction as the US-Iran war chokes oil flows, setting the stage for higher prices for an array of industrial materials.
The squeeze is most acute in the so-called aromatics chain and the downstream products made from these chemicals, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. and commodities data provider ICIS. That includes rubber for car tires and electrical insulation, resins, and plastic bottles, as well as various paints and coatings. #oott bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Lot's of misunderstanding out there about what's going on in #fuel #markets and high #diesel & #gasoline #prices. My colleague @gjgolding and I try to clear some of that up and explain what's going. from the @DallasFed
#crackspreads #refining #outages
Jesse Thompson retweeted
The U.S. isn't short of diesel. The world is.
So would banning U.S. diesel exports actually lower prices?
It might sound like an easy fix. But once you look at refinery economics and how fuel actually moves, the answer gets complicated.
Here's why:
Jesse Thompson retweeted
Overview of selected energy supply disruptions and impact on global energy system via McKinsey
Jesse Thompson retweeted
Of the 8 million barrels of diesel traded globally by sea each day, the U.S. supplies about 1.5 million of them — about 20%. An export ban would remove the single largest source of global diesel from the market, and the consequences could be catastrophic.
Jesse Thompson retweeted
Had a great conversation with Grant and Mike on all things geopolitics and oil.
Kaos Theory Episode 14: Lakshmi Sreekumar
I’ve known Lakshmi since 2018 and think she is the best Oil analyst out there. Grant and I are very excited to have Lakshmi make public interview debut here on KAOS THEORY 14!
9/5/26: Episode 14 — Lakshmi Sreekumar
On this episode of KAOS Theory, Grant Williams and I welcome Lakshmi Sreekumar for her first major appearance since leaving Capital One and a fascinating deep dive into an Oil market that has stubbornly refused to behave the way many expected.
Drawing on her background in energy trading, derivatives and macro analysis, as well as her experience advising the Dallas Fed’s Energy Advisory Council, Lakshmi explains why understanding Oil requires far more than simply counting barrels.
At the heart of the conversation is the Strait of Hormuz, which she argues is neither truly open nor closed (she has called it “Schrödinger’s Strait”) but rather operating as a “sieve,” with the impact of disruption being absorbed through a combination of demand destruction, bypass routes, partial transit and inventory draws.
From there, we explore Iran’s ambitions in the Strait, the role of the IRGC, China’s striking decline in Oil demand and why some of that shift may be permanent rather than cyclical.
Lakshmi also walks us through several possible paths for the conflict and explains why her base case is a prolonged “staring contest” designed to squeeze the IRGC financially, keeping oil prices elevated for now, while potentially setting the stage for a very different supply-demand picture, and even a global oil surplus, by 2028.
Follow Lakshmi xitter.cf/LSREnergy
urbankaoboy.com/p/kaos-theor…
What does it mean for Texas if WTI stays high? Pipeline constraints, uncertainty, & capital discipline changes the picture.
With colleagues @LuisBernardoT12 & Robert Leigh, from @DallasFed
dallasfed.org/research/swe/2…
Been a long time since I posted on [the app formerly known as twitter]... thought I'd add some inflation adjusted context to the goings on: inflation adjusted monthly brent, hh,ttf
accompanying text here:
linkedin.com/posts/jesse-tho…
This point isn't being translated in much of the discourse on VZ: none of the refineries that were flavored for VZ crude's chemistry shut down when the flows cut off. They substituted to other varieties.
U.S. refiners have largely phased out the use of Venezuelan crude oil.
Many U.S. refiners on the U.S. Gulf Coast (PADD 3) were designed to process medium and heavy grades of crude oil, such as those produced in Canada, Mexico, and Venezuela. Years of changes in both Venezuela and North America have led to a significant decline in the amount of Venezuelan crude oil that U.S. refiners process.
Haven't been on 'the-app-formerly-known-as-twitter' in a spell... latest #energy Indicators from @DallasFed is out. See my post on LinkedIn
linkedin.com/posts/jesse-tho…
Jesse Thompson retweeted
Trump's Energy policies largely revolve around increasing US oil & gas production and deregulation to grease the wheels.
Increasing oil production will be easier said than done, in my opinion
A thread 🧵
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Jesse Thompson retweeted
Our President and CEO Esther George spoke at the Energy and the Economy conference with the @DallasFed today on "Energy and the Outlook for the Economy and Monetary Policy." Read her remarks at bit.ly/3UM2T7n
#Economy #EconTwitter #FedEnergy22
ALT Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President and CEO Esther George with a quote from her that reads “Restoring price stability is essential to the nation’s long-run economic growth prospects. Without question, monetary policy must respond decisively to high inflation to avoid embedding expectations of future inflation.”
Jesse Thompson retweeted
WATCH: #FedEnergy22 speaker Ellen Wald of Transversal Consulting shares her views on how current geopolitics are affecting global energy markets. @EnergzdEconomy @ACGlobalEnergy
Jesse Thompson retweeted
Energy Indicators: Industry employment is rising while projections for U.S. oil production predict modest and steady production growth through 2023. For more data, click here:
dallasfed.org/research/energ…
@JesseBThompson
Something different from the usual fare on #Houston
360° in 365 Tour: Key takeaways from President Logan's Houston Visit:
•Energy transition presents challenges & opportunities
•Biomedical research a key element in quest to diversify economy
•Improving education top priority for economic inclusion dallasfed.org/research/econo…
Jesse Thompson retweeted
Energy Indicators: Deteriorating global economic conditions have reduced expectations for oil consumption growth. OPEC+ has elected to cut production quotas in November, but underproduction by member countries is likely to mute the total impact.
dallasfed.org/research/energ…
Jesse Thompson retweeted
Houston Economic Indicators: #Houston continues to add jobs while existing home sales drop. Notably, permits for multifamily housing have soared to the most since September 2014. Read more in the latest here:dallasfed.org/research/indic…
