Jessica

GM

Let’s not pretend this price action is normal. Sure, bitcoin:native has historically bottomed in Q4, and midterms often bring market wide derisking and bad news. But what we’ve seen unfold feels extreme. At 57K, we saw the characteristics of a bottom. We front ran the bids below the lows, as we’ve seen in previous cycles. The “plunge protection team” defended those lows. We retraced half of the bear market, made a weekly and monthly higher high, and then reversed the entire bottom formation with a 26% drop. This bear market is already longer than the ones in 2018 and 2022. The retracement to 72–74K after testing 87K was reasonable. Painful, but reasonable. But let’s not pretend that dropping all the way to 65K isn’t overkill, because it is. If the stock market pukes over the next few weeks, I don’t even want to imagine where BTC could end up in the short term. Im still holding my 2x long from 62.6K, with spot averaging around 69K after all the additional buys, but watching this unfold into something we haven’t really seen before is insane, to say the least. Throughout this entire drop, spot has been buying while price has continued to bleed lower. The orders that defended the 57K lows have now been pulled. I guess we’ll only know whether a bottom is truly forming when we start seeing scattered bids below us while price consolidates. Until then, it’s just elevated selling. I’m sure the market will find a way to screw people over and front run certain levels yet again, but this isn’t a traditional bear cycle. Anyone telling you otherwise doesn’t understand the structure. Every bottom so far has formed with the plunge protection team defending the lows. That’s why it’s wild to see such an aggressive retracement after we’d already seen the characteristics of a bottom. Maybe the AI bubble has burst. Maybe the stock market is finally entering a prolonged range. Or maybe this is all FUD before the bull run begins, as it has in the past. Either way, I’m not bearish. I’m just surprised by the speed and volatility of the move we’ve seen recently.

This is my only long on bitcoin:native as we speak. This position will remain open until invalidation is hit. If 57K isn't the bottom, then 40s-50s is a potential target.

Spot is selling. Perp is shorting. Nothing has changed for $BTC

🚨 Bitcoin hasn’t been THIS OVERSOLD since the bottom of the current bear market. The daily RSI has now dropped below 30, entering oversold territory. The last time Bitcoin was this oversold was back in June, when BTC bottomed around $58,000 before recovering toward $87,000. Now we’re seeing similar conditions again. Could another MASSIVE Bitcoin relief rally be around the corner?

If the bitcoin:native bottom is in at 57K, This drop is comparable to the Covid collapse, where we fully filled the imbalance left from the bear market lows. In 2023, even the capitulation candle didn’t extend this low into the imbalance. Whereas in 2026, that imbalance has been completely filled. So unless we V-shape recover from here, this has been one of the most brutal drops price action wise compared with all previous "bottoms" Now that the imbalance has been filled, if 57K was the bottom, we’d need to hold above 65K. If we don’t, that would suggest we could test 42–52K, potentially the final drop before the true bottom is in, if it isn’t already in. Very interesting times ahead. Only this time, the imbalance has been pretty much fully filled like the covid collapse. So when people say this is a typical bull market retracement, it actually isn't. Its worse. That is offcourse, if the low is in or not. If it isn't in, well then this is the first time in history BTC creates a weekly HH only to deviate to new bear market lows.

bitcoin:native printed head & shoulders pattern Right shoulder is almost finished Get ready for HUGE bitcoin:native move ...

Do you know why BTC dumped to $71K while the stock market is semi flat? Today, 130,438 traders liquidated. Total liquidations were $720.08M. bitcoin:native touched $71K $ETH went below $2K

Observing a potential ABC correction on USDT.D which coincides with bitcoin:native . This was my initial plan. Wave B has extended a little higher than I expected, but I still think the structure is valid. We’re testing the 0.382–0.5 zone, just as we did last time. In 2023, price deviated below the major low marked by the black dot, reclaimed it, then broke down again to form a Wave B high before the final move lower. The invalidation and trigger are straightforward really, If USDT.D rejects this zone and starts losing the black dotted low, that would suggest a similar pattern is playing out. For now, bears are in control. Bulls need to see USDT.D lose that black dotted low before considering a move higher on the HTF. If we can’t get back below the black dot, bulls are in danger short term.

bitcoin:native is still in a bull market. We are forming a higher low here, and people have started calling for new lows. This is exactly what happened during the first dip in 2023, so don't panic and just HODL.

If bitcoin:native doesn't start bouncing soon. We are truly fucked.

Liquidation heatmap suggests $BTC has bottomed Next price target must be 77K

$BTC is liquidating retail traders left and right. MAX longs 73K and shorts 82K short-term. 165,000 traders liquidated for $1.20 billion. Do you really think this is a random move? Then how come I manage to nail it before knowing the news? Bitcoin will go much higher long-term, but short-term movement and volatility is to liquidity hunt. If you want gains and don't have time to do the research then stick to BTC only and no leverage. Be ready, be prepared. God wills it.

Probably nothing... bitcoin:native

bitcoin:native dumped to 73.3K, open interest flushing Grey market futures US Tech -0.82% US seems to be striking Iran again, 3rd carrier strike group entering the region. NVIDIA scandal might affect the US stock market since its the largest company.

Seasonality suggests bitcoin:native hasn’t bottomed. Price action suggests it has. I’m a big fan of patterns and seasonality when analyzing markets. I use plenty of technicals and pivots, and I mainly trade based on time rather than price. So why do I believe the bottom is in if it doesn’t match seasonality? Because before patterns, price, fractals and pivots, you need price action confirmation. You need to validate a pattern by analyzing how price behaves. That’s something many people seem to lack an understanding of. To validate X, you need Y. If a pattern points to X, but Y doesn’t confirm it, the chances of that pattern playing out decrease. Eventually, BTC will break the 4y cycle. It won’t keep repeating the same historical tendencies forever. People who believe it will are living in fantasy land. You need to be open to the possibility that historical patterns can break, something many people still don’t understand. Another important point for the sub-90 IQ trolls... I’m a swing trader. I’m a higher timeframe trader. I aim to catch the big, meaningful moves, and my strategy is based on trading the trend. I’ve been publicly positioned since 62K–65K, and I’ll CONTINUE to be bullish because I’m positioned from lower. But people keep trying to reinvent what I’ve said to fit their own narrative. The reality is that I’m in from lower, and I’m bullish since then. I’m not a scalping degenerate chasing dopamine on the 5 minute chart and trying to 100x a portfolio. I trade in a slow, steady and precise manner, something else many people on this app seem not to understand. Anyway, the moral here is that price action and structure come before validating pivots or seasonality. BTC isn’t going to keep bottoming in Q4 and topping in Q4 forever. In due time, we will see who is right, an who is wrong.

This is the calmest weekend ever for bitcoin:native Literally a stable coin this weekend with no liquidation wicks MM and CEX are too worried restructuring to meet EU and US compliances Democrats sweeping Congress signaling much harder regulations might be the reason Wouldn't it be nice if regulations become so hard again against market manipulations? You miss Gensler now after the brutal 2026 don't you? Will make a market update today for subscribers. Until then stay safe. Don't get liquidated and extracted on shitcoins before the actual bull market begins

bitcoin:native has literally never made a new low after forming a weekly HH. Of course, that’s based on BTC having already impulsed from the bottom. So, based on history, this next low should be a HL. BTC is already down 14%, and HTF market structure has shifted, so it’s likely we’re close to forming one. If we somehow make a new LL after forming a weekly HH, I’ll probably deactivate my account.😂

Funny how the targets just naturally get lower and lower. If you’d been told at 87K that you’d get the chance to buy bitcoin:native below 80K, you’d have clicked buy without hesitation. Now that we’re here, literally nobody is interested. It’s kind of funny how that works. Just the psychology of the game. People say they’re going to buy or long a certain area, but when price gets there, they lower their entry even further. 6 months from now, people will look back an realize just how much of a generational entry this was.

We really don’t want to see bitcoin:native lose either of these two areas. If my thesis is correct & the bottom is truly in, you’d expect these levels to hold. If we start breaking below... we are going directly to 50K. We’re at some major zones now on the HTF.

Despite the aggressive hunts on bitcoin:native USDT.D remains in its downtrend, which puts the bigger picture into perspective. If the bottom is truly in, we shouldn’t see USDT.D fill any of the imbalance from its initial move higher (the same move that pushed BTC up) That would give people a re-entry too close to the bottom.