Researching bitcoin and producing findings on https://teapaw.org/t.co/erEtvJ2t92 Building tools for bitcoin related financial planning on https://teapaw.org/t.co/idCGssfNna
International waters.
Joined March 2025
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Johnny ₿ Goode retweeted
The new Bitcoin Observatory homepage opens on one number: where the floor is today. It rises about 36% a year.
Under it, one straight line through five bear markets, and a button to plan your retirement on it.
Floor first, price second. That's my plan.
btcpowerlaw.nl/
ALT Screenshot of the new btcpowerlaw.nl homepage: Bitcoin Power Law, where is the floor today, a live floor of $67,914, and a chart of five bear markets on one straight line.
Johnny ₿ Goode retweeted
In less than 18 months from now, bitcoin price will never be under $100 K again.
Johnny ₿ Goode retweeted
This is why you use the bottoms to make your financial planning: not because it won’t ever go lower but because most of the time you will be happily above it.
So if your stack times the 12 month floor growth is greater than your expenses, you are financially free: your bitcoin will grow faster than you can spend it.
Escape velocity 🚀
Johnny ₿ Goode retweeted
Loud price. Quiet multiple.
Spot can look expensive in dollars and still sit near the power-law floor. Today: 0.55× trend.
Check the Observatory:
btcpowerlaw.nl
ALT Bitcoin Observatory halving cycle overlay: trend multiples for 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024 cycles, with NOW at 0.55x near the 0.432x floor
Johnny ₿ Goode retweeted
What is the miner subsidy?
What is the halving?
What is the difficulty adjustment?
Knowing these answers is understanding what bitcoin is backed by.
Johnny ₿ Goode retweeted
Someone once stopped me as I was stepping out of my Lambo
“How many starving people could you have fed with the money you spent on that?”
I told him the truth:
“I don't know. But it fed the 1,800 families of the people who built it.
It fed the designers. The carbon-fiber suppliers. The tyre manufacturers. The 300 technicians who spent hundreds of hours hand-crafting this machine with pride.”
That’s the difference. Socialism demands you divide the pie
Capitalism pays people to bake a bigger one
Do you understand?
Johnny ₿ Goode retweeted
The beauty of retiring on Bitcoin is that you don’t need extreme euphoria and insane bull runs for your financial freedom. You just need the low end of the statistical distribution to grow faster than you can spend it.
That low end is now about $65K and growing to $90K in the next 12 months.
Btcpowerlaw.nl
Johnny ₿ Goode retweeted
Model Bitcoin Price
--------------------------------
iPhone 3 ₿29,900
iPhone 4 ₿2,857
iPhone 5 ₿16.6
iPhone 6 ₿2.17
iPhone 7 ₿1.28
iPhone 8 ₿0.24
iPhone X ₿0.16
iPhone 11 ₿0.14
iPhone 12 ₿0.06
iPhone 13 ₿0.02
iPhone 14 ₿0.03
iPhone 15 ₿0.03
iPhone 16 ₿0.014
iPhone 17 ₿0.007
iPhone 18 Pro ₿0.015
iPhone Duo ₿0.025
Johnny ₿ Goode retweeted
Where are we right now in the bear market?
Statistics would tell us it shouldn’t be much longer.
We are grinding along the low end of the power law distribution.
Expect mean reversion soon.
Last few weeks/months to buy cheap coins.
Johnny ₿ Goode retweeted
IMPORTANT UPDATE: We just had our first confirmed loss of a Mk3 + 2 Word Passphrase.
Drained at 2pm Aug 2nd Australia Time - Roughly 17hrs ago.
Johnny ₿ Goode retweeted
1/ During our investigation of the Coldcard drain yesterday, we identified an unusual pattern in the sweeps. That pattern led us to a hypothesis that has since been confirmed: the operator used a paid account at a well-known blockchain-services provider to query the source addresses and perform other related activity during the sweeps.
Johnny ₿ Goode retweeted
IF YOU HAVE LOST ALL OF YOUR BITCOIN:
- Don't despair: money comes, money goes. You will bounce back.
- Don't blame yourself: there's nothing you could have done to prevent this. This is not your fault.
- Document absolutely everything: timestamps, transactions id, your coldcard model number, date of purchase, chip id, your seed, take screenshots, and definitely keep your coldcard.
- Don't lose hope: it might take years but there's a good chance the attacker will be caught and your funds returned.
If there's anything i can do to help, my DMs are open. 🧡
Johnny ₿ Goode retweeted
- You: "My stocks went up 10%."
- Government: "Congratulations! That's taxable."
- You: "But inflation was 8%. I only really gained 2%."
- Government: "We tax the full 10%."
- You: "You tax the inflation you created?"
- Government: "Capital gains are capital gains."
- You: "So you profit from debasing my money twice?"
- Government: "You're not an economist."
Johnny ₿ Goode retweeted
I just need the power law floor to grow from 60k today to 82k next year to 110k the year after that.
