WHAT IF WE ONLY NEEDED FIVE? The Balance of Power — A Strategy for Alberta Independence What if the path forward for Alberta independence isn’t winning a provincial election, but winning just five seats? The referendum revealed something interesting. Although Option 2 lost province-wide, support approached or exceeded 50% in five constituencies: Rimbey–Rocky Mountain House–Sundre: 50.9% Central Peace–Notley: 50.4% Drumheller–Stettler: 48.4% Grande Prairie–Wapiti: 46.9% Taber–Warner: 46.3% These are unofficial referendum figures, not projections of how people would vote for an independence party. But consider this. Under our first-past-the-post electoral system, a candidate doesn’t need 50% of the vote to win. They only need more votes than any other candidate. In a three-way race, 40% could be enough. Sometimes even 35%. Now imagine a future Alberta Legislature with 89 seats: UCP: 42 NDP: 42 Independence Party: 5 Neither major party has a majority. Those five independence MLAs could potentially hold the balance of power. This isn’t unprecedented. In 2017, just three BC Green MLAs helped determine which party would govern British Columbia through a confidence-and-supply agreement. What could five independence MLAs accomplish? Think about the objections we heard throughout the referendum campaign: “What about policing?” Negotiate concrete steps toward establishing an Alberta provincial police service. “What about pensions?” Push for an independently verified Alberta Pension Plan proposal, including costs, benefits, and transition arrangements. “What about Indigenous treaties?” Establish meaningful government-to-government discussions with Indigenous nations to address treaty rights and constitutional obligations. “Is independence even legal?” Commission serious constitutional and legal analysis, identifying the actual requirements, obstacles, and possible negotiating pathways. “What about federal transfers and finances?” Demand transparent financial modelling showing what Alberta would gain, lose, and need to replace. “What about trade and being landlocked?” Pursue interprovincial trade agreements, transportation access, and legal clarity around existing trade corridors. “What about federal jurisdiction?” Identify which responsibilities Alberta could assume under existing law and which would require negotiations or constitutional change. We wouldn’t resolve everything. But imagine entering the next referendum campaign with several of these questions already investigated, negotiated, or partially resolved. That’s the advantage of incremental progress. And there’s another important consideration: vote splitting. A new independence party running candidates across Alberta could divide the conservative vote and help elect an NDP government. But what if it contested only five carefully selected constituencies? That wouldn’t eliminate vote splitting, particularly within those five ridings. However, it would substantially limit the number of constituencies exposed to that risk. We would need to study the new electoral boundaries, local voting patterns, and candidate viability before deciding where to run. Still, imagine five dedicated independence MLAs able to negotiate policy commitments in exchange for supporting a minority government. Not demanding immediate separation. Not pretending we can overturn the referendum result. But to advance policies, address concerns, and build a strong foundation for whatever Albertans decide in the future. We received ~25% support, and nearly 50% in some constituencies. I still support Alberta independence. I accept the referendum result. And I believe we should seriously consider what comes next. Perhaps the next step isn’t trying to win the whole province. Perhaps it’s finding five ridings where we can win a seat and earn a voice.

Alberta independence received ~25% of the vote, and already we’re being told the movement is dead, that we’ve been defeated, and that it’s time to shut up and move on. Really? Over the last 10 Alberta elections, the NDP averaged roughly 20% of the popular vote. At their lowest, they received just 8%. Yet they never abandoned their principles, never stopped organizing, and eventually formed government, reaching 44% of the vote. And good for them! That’s how democracy is supposed to work. I don’t agree with the NDP on much, but I respect their determination to keep advocating for what they believe in. Why should Alberta independence supporters be expected to do anything different? We now know our baseline. Roughly one in four voters supported our position. We’ve built organizations, established networks, and brought a conversation into the mainstream that was once considered unthinkable. I accept the referendum results. I respect those who voted differently. But accepting defeat in one vote doesn’t mean abandoning your convictions. To those celebrating our defeat, remember that democracy doesn’t end when your side wins. The NDP never gave up. Why should we? This isn’t the end of the conversation. It’s the end of the beginning.

I genuinely hope I’m wrong. I hope everything will be okay. I still believe in Alberta independence, and I will continue to peacefully advocate for it. But I also accept the results of the referendum and respect the decision of my fellow Albertans. My support for independence has never been about wanting Canada to fail. Quite the opposite. I want what’s best for Alberta, for Canada, and for the people who call this country home. I’ve expressed serious concerns about Canada’s future. I’ve warned about the erosion of our rights and freedoms, growing government overreach, the possibility of increasingly authoritarian policies, Canada’s potential integration with the European Union, and the possibility of our country gradually becoming something resembling a dystopia. I sincerely hope every one of those fears proves to be unfounded. I hope Canada really is stronger together. I hope our freedoms are protected, our governments become more accountable, our economy improves, and future generations inherit a country better than the one we have today. I don’t want revenge. I don’t harbour resentment toward those who voted differently. And I certainly don’t want things to get worse just so I can say, “I told you so.” I hope those who oppose independence can extend that same goodwill to those of us who continue to believe in it. We don’t have to agree politically to respect one another. We all have the right to hold different opinions, express them openly, and peacefully advocate for the future we believe in. The referendum may be over, but my concerns remain, as does my commitment to Alberta. If I’m wrong about where Canada is heading, nobody will be happier than me. For all our sakes, I genuinely hope I am. God bless Canada. God bless Alberta.

If Albertans had been asked Question 10 two years ago (2024), what percentage do you think would have voted for Option 2 — to begin the process toward an Alberta independence referendum?

Great message.

This is a wise message. I haven’t decided how I feel yet. But I’m thinking @mrowley1987 may be right. 🫣

The UCP faces a political dilemma. Exclude separatists, and risk creating a new party that splits the conservative vote. Include separatists, and risk losing moderate conservatives to the NDP. Either way, the NDP could benefit. Which scenario worries you most?

The Elephant in the Room: The People Who Don’t Vote. When we talk about election results, we’re missing a huge part of the picture. Look at Alberta’s 2023 election. Out of every 10 registered voters, roughly 4 didn’t vote, 3 voted UCP, and 3 voted NDP. Yet we focus almost entirely on which party won and which party lost. The UCP legitimately won the election, but only about one-third of eligible voters actually voted for them. The NDP received support from just over one-quarter. And the largest group? Those who didn’t vote at all. We rarely talk about them. Why didn’t they participate? Have they lost faith in the system? Do they feel unrepresented? Are they satisfied with how things are? Or do they simply not care? We shouldn’t assume we know their reasons, but we should be asking. I’ve supported Alberta independence partly because I believe we have an opportunity to rethink how our political system works and build something that better represents everyone. But independence alone wouldn’t solve this problem. Winning an election isn’t the same as earning the active support of a majority of the electorate. And until we start paying attention to the people who aren’t voting, I think we’re missing one of the most important stories in Alberta politics. What do you think keeps so many Albertans away from the ballot box?

Did Anyone Really Win Question 10? Based on preliminary results, it looks like roughly 30–40% of eligible Albertans may not have cast a valid vote on Question 10. The numbers could still change. There’s a lot of gloating from the Forever Canada crowd right now. But when you look at the bigger picture, is this really such a sweet victory? I support Alberta independence, but I think both sides need some humility here. Neither side inspired enough hope or confidence to bring a huge portion of the electorate into the conversation. Perhaps people feel marginalized, distrust the system, or simply believe their vote doesn’t matter. The remain side won the vote. That’s a fact. But the status quo also remains, along with whatever disillusionment kept so many people from participating in a question this important. That’s not something either side should celebrate. My question is this: Why do you think so many eligible Albertans didn’t cast a vote on Question 10? I’d genuinely like to hear your thoughts.