1st worked on Wall St summer '65. Recovering securities lawyer. Trading for a living 45 yrs. Not investment advice, don't be silly. 🇮🇱 linshek lei et hitchat

Joined October 2010
"You are never as smart as u think you are when you are making money or as dumb as u think when losing"
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S&P 500 sectors: Yesterday's winners, the usual suspects (tech and tech adjacent sectors) are today's losers. The reverse is also true with defensive names which were brutalized yesterday are today's winners. Looking for a trend?
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
US JOBLESS CLAIMS -6K TO 194K IN OCT-17 WK; SURVEY 200K US OCT-10 WEEK CONTINUING CLAIMS +25K TO 1,728,000 US OCT-10 WEEK JOBLESS CLAIMS REVISED TO 200K
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We are so fortunate to have a President who has his priorities straight and keeps his eyes on the ball. I don't think I am capable of greater sarcasm.
President Trump said he called Google Maps and asked to rename the Atlantic Ocean. “No, no, no. This time I'm not doing it ... oceans are different, sir," Google CEO Sundar Pichai replied, Trump said at a rally in South Carolina. The president said he was told the company would not do so because oceans span multiple countries. He added that he would likely drop the idea.
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Reading about expectations of a Friday IPO filing by Anthropic. Issuers and underwriters ALWAYS are in a hurry if there is a fear of the window for IPOs closing. Weakness in the AI sector in particular is a dark cloud posing a risk that the window is closing.
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
I mentioned in the Week Ahead that we again last week (third week in four) saw negative earnings revisions according to Citigroup. I said previously “I’m not too concerned about a few weeks of that,” but “what I’m watching more closely is the 20-week moving average which does lead the S&P 500 if we see a prolonged softening.” Still too early to tell how much further the softening has to go.
The Week Ahead – The Rotation Continues AI worries are pressuring Tech and sending yields lower as we embark on a heavy earnings week including several names in the cross-hairs. pro.thestreet.com/market-com…
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Previous booms in capital expense have not necessarily resulted in great returns on capital.
Hyperscaler capex has grown faster than during any earlier investment boom, including the canal mania, the railway boom, the Roaring Twenties, and the dot-com era. @reuters @soberlook thedailyshot.com/subscribe/
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
Hedge Funds Pile Into Shorts, Goldman Sachs Across global equities, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime brokerage desk says short sales have exceeded long purchases by a ratio of roughly five to one. Short leverage across its book sits in the 99th percentile over the past five years. Net leverage among fundamental long/short funds, a gauge of how much long exposure exceeds shorts, is near a three-year low, despite a rise in gross leverage. The retreat follows a sharp unwind in the AI trade. A hotter-than-expected US inflation print and renewed doubts over the payoff from heavy spending on AI capacity have triggered selling in semiconductor and infrastructure names, extending a rout that began with Asian memory stocks.
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
OIL TOPS $111 AS MIDDLE EAST WAR RISKS SURGE Brent crude jumps over 2%, heading for its highest close since May. Global oil inventories are razor-thin, leaving little room for supply disruptions. The U.S. is deploying more warships, Israel is reportedly preparing potential strikes on Iran, and attacks on Saudi Arabia are intensifying. Washington has ordered nonessential U.S. government personnel to leave Saudi Arabia.
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
FYI, my FT column on "our yields, your problem" -- Why Europe should not wait for lower US bond yields. ft.com/content/92e1700d-7990… #economy #markets #bonds #yields #europe @FT
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Anthropic reported a loss of $80.7 billion in the first 6 months of the year. Revenue growth is not profitability. Pending questions about the ROI on capital remain.
I have seen a lot of discussion lately about Anthropic not having any revenue. That isn't exactly correct and for a company that is only a few years old, $16 billion in revenue is no small feat, and is more than $INTC, $UBER, $KO, $NFLX, $CRM, and $NKE.
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Seasonality is akin to long term climate patterns. Ignoring them is foolish. They aren't a weather forecast. For mkts current macro risks are akin to the weather. Energy prices, inflation, rate hikes & the Trump election denial risk are more likely to determine the mkt's course.
Several favorable seasonal windows begin next week for the bulls, starting with the Halloween Trade at the October 26 close. From last 4 trading days of October through third trading day of November, Nasdaq 100 $NDX was positive 81% of the time since 1990.
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The reference to the "lovable" Mantle is not really accurate. Fans were disappointed by and critical of Mantle with expectations that every year should be a triple crown year like 1956. Maris was not loved and that resulted in Mantle's becoming lovable.
"The whole Yankee fandom, the whole Yankee organization, the whole country wanted Mickey Mantle to break Babe Ruth’s record, and said: "Who the hell is this guy Roger Maris standing in his way? Unlike the "lovable" Mantle, Roger Maris knew intuitively that he was never going to be accepted as one of the historic Yankees figures. As for the team, Mickey bought them dinner, bought them drinks, gave them the goodies, and they wanted to experience the reflected glory Mantle brought. Maris once said: "Even the Yankee clubhouse attendants think I’m tough to live with." Maury Allen. "In a way, it was weird. They sometimes booed Roger Maris for hitting a home run. Mick actually tried to help him with the press and the public." “A Hero All His Life” Merlyn Mantle, Mickey`s wife. Roger Maris played in seven World Series, more than anyone in the 1960`s decade, competing in five consecutive World Series with the Yankees from 1960 to 1964, and two with the Cardinals in 1967 and 1968. He was on the winning team three times. In my HOF!!!
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Whistling a happy tune is good for one's mental health but is not always a realistic take. Yes, the number of households with incomes has increased almost 6 fold. But CPI has risen over 9 fold over that same period.
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
DEEPSEEK LOOKS TO SPEED UP IPO TIMELINE, SOURCES SAY
CHINA'S DEEPSEEK RAISES $15 BILLION IN FINANCING ROUND, SOURCES SAY DEEPSEEK VALUED AT $74 BILLION PRE-MONEY IN LATEST ROUND, SOURCES SAY CATL, TENCENT, MONOLITH, SHIXIANG INVEST IN DEEPSEEK, SOURCES SAY NEW DEEPSEEK BACKERS INCLUDE STONY CREEK CAPITAL, LEGEND CAPITAL AND GEELY, SOURCES SAY
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
“Always do sober what you said you'd do drunk. That will teach you to keep your mouth shut.” - Ernest Hemingway Ernest Hemingway (1899–1961) was an American author and journalist whose distinctive writing style helped reshape modern literature. Born in Oak Park, Illinois, Hemingway began his professional life as a newspaper reporter before serving as a volunteer ambulance driver in Italy during World War I, where he suffered serious injuries. His wartime experiences, along with his years living among the expatriate writers of the “Lost Generation” in Paris, deeply influenced his storytelling and fascination with bravery, suffering, and human resilience. Hemingway became famous for his minimalist approach to writing, often referred to as the “iceberg theory,” in which simple, direct language conceals deeper emotions and meanings beneath the surface. His most celebrated novels include The Sun Also Rises, A Farewell to Arms, For Whom the Bell Tolls, and The Old Man and the Sea. Through these works, he explored powerful themes of war, love, masculinity, sacrifice, loss, and the struggle to maintain dignity in the face of hardship. In 1954, Hemingway received the Nobel Prize in Literature, cementing his reputation as one of the most influential American writers of the twentieth century. His adventurous lifestyle, personal struggles, and tragic death by suicide in 1961 became part of his enduring public image. Yet his greatest legacy remains his revolutionary approach to storytelling. His sharp, understated prose continues to influence generations of authors, proving that some of literature’s most powerful messages can be conveyed through remarkably few words.
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We've seen quantitative studies for the last several weeks suggesting the bottom is in or we are close to an impt low only to see a striking inability to hold a rally. This is not to say that they will not be proven right, but the pain continues.
Goldman (Callahan): the chart below measures historical “drawdowns” in US Semis vs the S&P 500 (e.g.peak to trough drawdowns in the SOX v SPX pair) – with Semis pulling back ~25% from the highs (relative to the market), 20+ years of history suggest we could be getting there..?
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Scarlett & Carter's BaPa retweeted
📌 Correlations The S&P 500's one-year correlations are 0.29 with the 10-year US Treasury yield, 0.44 with gold, and -0.35 with WTI crude oil, a mix that offers useful guidance for asset allocation 👉 isabelnet.com/blog/ @GoldmanSachs $spx #spx #stocks $gold #bonds
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Concentration in the new era of passive investment dominance w/ 'fast money' in those highly liquid names is a recipe for significant volatilty.
🇺🇸 S&P 500 The S&P 500 has become top-heavy. Its 10 largest stocks now account for 40% of the index and 37% of its earnings, leaving the benchmark increasingly at the mercy of a few companies 👉 isabelnet.com/?s=S%26P+500 @GoldmanSachs $spx #spx #stocks #equity #earnings
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Earnings "holding up" are not necessarily enough. Great expectations create a bar that is almost too high. Meeting them may not be enough.
📌 EPS Earnings are holding up, and analysts still see room to lift estimates. The Street is betting AI can boost margins without sending capex soaring 👉 isabelnet.com/blog/ @GoldmanSachs $ACWI #earnings #equity #stocks
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