The Fed is expected to hold rates steady Wednesday, but it is a closer call on the data than the market-implied probabilities suggest. The case for hiking: 1) The hot September CPI and PPI underscore a second straight lost year for getting inflation down 2) With a Dec hike widely expected, hawks will argue that there's less to gain from waiting six weeks given the cost of falling further behind 3) Hawks will also argue that policy isn't restrictive and needs to be The case for holding: 1) If officials still think this is a 2-3 hike recalibration, spacing out remaining moves costs little. "Being six weeks late is a manageable risk," says Rob Kaplan 2) Back-to-back moves could signal a faster cycle than officials intend 3) After several officials signaled no rush, and Warsh’s silence let odds of a hold build, a surprise hike days before the midterms would be a jolt. The Fed has raised rates right before elections, but not as a surprise wsj.com/economy/central-bank…