K. (@Kayteetav) header
K. (@Kayteetav) profile picture

Market observer. STOCKS ONLY. All posts are personal commentary & not financial advice. Selective on follows. Occasional music.

United States
Joined July 2019
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STOCKS ONLY (No Options, Margin, Leverage, or ETFs).
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T-minus 51 minutes until Sunday night futures open.
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U.S. October 2026 jobs report: Friday, November 6, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET.
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The collapse of Reddit will be studied. After reporting earnings, its stock collapsed 30% in a single day. It's down 44% in 2 weeks. But the most important detail is what was revealed in that earnings call. The CEO said AI is killing Google search. People no longer get sent to Reddit from Google. They merely get their answers from the AI Mode itself. Even Google confirmed this themselves with their disastrous results - AI mode is cannibalising their search business. Pretty soon, no one will visit Reddit voluntarily. Its traffic will continue to crater. The worst part? Reddit isn't alone. There are millions of companies and publishers that rely on search traffic. That's what happens when you rely on a single funnel for discovery.
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K. retweeted
$AAPL earnings Monday, November 2, 2026 at 2:00 PM PT | 5:00 PM ET @Apple @AppleMusic @AppleTV
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Wall Street is positioned for the wrong future. The fundamental misdiagnosis treats the US economy as a monolith. It is not. Different sectors face different financing constraints and effectively different neutral interest rates, or r*. The Federal Reserve and Wall Street err by assuming AI’s secular growth represents the whole economy. It does not. Companies build computing capacity to compete in a technological transformation, not because financing is cheap. Reindustrialisation adds another strategic investment impulse. Neither shows the broader economy is overheating. Housing, smaller businesses and credit-dependent industries face a different economy. Their weakness is masked by extraordinary investment supporting headline growth. Credit markets worsen the problem. We hear they lead the Fed, yet Wall Street rarely asks if they have tightened financial conditions excessively. Market-led tightening can amplify a policy mistake rather than correct it. The danger is circular: restrictive policy and tighter credit undermine the investment sustaining growth, exposing the underlying economy’s fragility. Strip out AI capital expenditure and economic and earnings growth look far weaker. Economies without comparable investment booms warn that American resilience does not prove monetary restraint is insufficient. Recall the 2018 midterms: the Powell Fed kept tightening before a sharp year-end market dislocation. The lesson is to recognise deterioration before markets force it, not to accommodate elections. Inflation should be assessed via the composition of personal consumption expenditures, not inferred from technology spending. Claims of second- and third-round effects need evidence. An Iran agreement could ease energy risks, but the cyclical economy also needs rate relief. Wall Street is positioned for persistent inflation. If credit chokes off AI investment, the surprise will be weaker growth and earnings, not overheating. That path leads to a 10-year Treasury yield of 4% and another reckoning with an economic misdiagnosis.
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No noise. Just a place of peace.
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$HIMS earnings November 9, 2026 Conference call 5:00 PM ET | 2:00 PM PT
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$RKLB earnings Monday November 9th, 2026 Conference call 2:00 PM PT | 5:00 PM ET .@RocketLab .@RKLBMan
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$LITE earnings Thursday, Nov 5, 2026, after market close Webcast at 2:00 PM PT / 5:00 PM ET .@Lumentum
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$MP earnings November 5, 2026 5:00 PM ET | 2:00 PM PST .@MPMaterials
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$MELI earnings Wednesday, November 4, 2026 5:00 PM ET / 2:00 PM PT .@MercadoLibre
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$ARM earnings Nov 4, 2026 2:00 PM PDT | 5:00 PM EDT .@Arm
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$SMCI earnings November 3, 2026 2:00 PM PT | 5:00 PM EDT .@Supermicro
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