KickOff

Under 3.5 goals, 75%, with Sunderland's home games doing most of the arguing: under 3.5 goals in 80% of their last 20 home league games. Four goals at the Stadium of Light has been the exception, not the habit. Leeds on the road tell a similar story. Under 3.5 goals in 70% of their last 20 away league games, and they haven't scored more than one goal in five consecutive away league games. That's a side that turns up with one goal in its pocket, not four. Sunderland at home are modest at both ends. They average 1.1 scored and 1.2 conceded per game across their last 20 home league games, which is a steady sort of afternoon rather than a wild one. The model's predicted goals finish the case: Sunderland 1.2, Leeds 1.3. Neither side is expected to run away with it, and that's not a forecast with four goals in it. It loses on four goals or more. I'd need both sides to find something they haven't been showing. Under 3.5 goals, 75%. #SAFC #LUFC #PremierLeague

Both teams to score, 62%, and Selhurst Park is the reason. Both teams have scored in 5 consecutive Crystal Palace home league games, so this is simply what afternoons there have looked like lately. Start with Palace going forward. They've scored in 5 consecutive home league games, and in 14 of their last 20 at home (70%). That's a side that usually gets something on the board in front of its own crowd. Then the other end. Palace have conceded in 5 consecutive home league games too, and in 14 of their last 20 at home (70%). Their back door at Selhurst stays open. Newcastle bring their share. They've scored in 14 of their last 20 away league games (70%), so they tend to travel with a goal in them. They've also conceded in 5 consecutive league games, which is Palace's way in. The model's predicted goals put it plainly: Crystal Palace 1.5, Newcastle 1.7. Neither side is expected to be shut out. It loses if only one side scores, or neither. For that, one of these defences has to find a clean sheet it hasn't been finding. Both teams to score, 62%. #CPFC #NUFC #PremierLeague

Both teams to score, 63%, and Brighton's away scoring is where it starts. They've scored in 16 of their last 20 away league games (80%), so they don't tend to leave grounds empty-handed. Liverpool do their share at home. They've scored in 16 of their last 20 home league games (80%), and they've conceded in 15 of those 20 (75%). That's a side that scores at Anfield and lets visitors score too. The model's predicted goals say the same thing: Liverpool 1.8, Brighton 1.4. Both sides are expected to score, and neither is expected to keep a clean sheet. This one has some history behind it as well. Brighton have conceded in 6 consecutive league meetings with Liverpool, and in 5 consecutive away league meetings with them. Liverpool have scored in 5 consecutive home league meetings with Brighton. It loses if only one side scores. For that, Brighton would have to stop Liverpool scoring, which they haven't managed in six straight league meetings, or Liverpool would have to keep out a Brighton side that keeps scoring on the road. I don't see either happening. Both teams to score, 63%. #LFC #BHAFC #PremierLeague

Over 1.5 goals, 80%, and Brentford's travels are the heart of it. There have been over 1.5 goals in 6 consecutive Brentford away league games, so their road trips tend to come with goals in them. The model's predicted goals point the same way: Brentford 2, Hull City 1.1. That's the visitors doing most of the work, with Hull still expected to chip in. Brentford's away defence is the other half. They've conceded in 6 consecutive away league games, and in 15 of their last 20 away league games (75%). Hull won't need much help to find a way in. Hull carry their end at home. They've scored in 14 of their last 20 home league games (70%). Hull are up this season, so most of those games came in the division below, but two goals isn't a big ask. The meetings back it too. There have been over 1.5 goals in the last 10 league meetings between these two. It only loses on one goal in the game, and I don't see Brentford keeping things that tidy. Over 1.5 goals, 80%. #HCFC #BrentfordFC #PremierLeague

Both teams to score, 62%, and Old Trafford's back door is where it starts. Man Utd have conceded in 9 consecutive home league games, so visitors keep finding a way in. Bournemouth are the visitors who tend to manage it. They've scored in 7 consecutive away league games, and in 17 of their last 20 away (85%). That's a side that doesn't leave grounds empty-handed. United hold up the other end. They've scored in 18 of their last 20 home league games (90%), so a Bournemouth clean sheet would be going against the grain. Bournemouth have kept clean sheets in only 4 of their last 20 away (20%). The fixture itself points the same way. Bournemouth have scored in 6 consecutive league meetings with Man Utd, and United have conceded in all six. The model expects Manchester United to score 1.8 goals and Bournemouth 1.4, which puts a goal at each end. It loses if only one side scores, or neither. On these numbers I don't see either end staying shut. Both teams to score, 62%. #MUFC #AFCB #PremierLeague

Over 2.5 goals, 65%. Separately, there have been over 2.5 goals in 5 consecutive Chelsea home league games, and Stamford Bridge has been anything but quiet lately. The home end does its share. Chelsea have scored 2 goals or more in 4 consecutive home league games, so the goals aren't all coming from the visitors. The other end matters just as much. Chelsea have conceded in 17 of their last 20 home league games (85%). That's a back door that hasn't shut in a long while, and three goals needs it open. Over their last 20 home league games, Chelsea have seen over 2.5 goals in 70% of them. Busy afternoons are the habit there, not the exception. Spurs don't turn up empty-handed either. They've scored in 14 of their last 20 away league games (70%), so they travel with something to add. The model expects Chelsea to score 2.1 goals and Spurs 1.3. That's the home side carrying the load, with the visitors still chipping in. For this to lose you need two goals or fewer, and I don't see Chelsea keeping things that tidy. Over 2.5 goals, 65%. #CFC #THFC #PremierLeague

Two goals is all I'm asking of Coventry and Fulham. The model rates over 1.5 goals at 78%, and Fulham's away defence is the strongest reason: they've conceded in 16 of their last 20 away league games (80%). That's a side that rarely comes home with a clean sheet. Coventry are up this season, so their last-20 figures are mostly Championship games. Even so, their home games have a habit of producing goals. They've conceded in 5 consecutive home league games, so their own back door isn't shutting either. They've scored in 15 of their last 20 home league games, and 75% of those 20 home games had over 1.5 goals. Fulham's away games point the same way, with over 1.5 goals in 70% of their last 20 away league games. They've also scored in 11 of those 20 away games, so they don't just turn up to defend. The model expects Coventry to score 1.3 goals and Fulham 1.6. That's both sides contributing, not one carrying the game alone. It loses on only one goal in the game, or none. That needs a defence to tighten up, and neither has shown it. Over 1.5 goals, 78%. #PUSB #FFC #PremierLeague

Arsenal to win, 67%, and the home record is where it starts. Arsenal are unbeaten in 18 home league games, so a draw or an Everton win means breaking a run that's held a long time. They've also won 16 of their last 20 home league games, and the last six in a row. Goals aren't the worry at the Emirates either: Arsenal have scored in 19 of their last 20 home league games, which is a side that rarely leaves a home game empty-handed. Everton's road form tells the other half. They've won 6 of their last 20 away league games, and their current streak is three straight away draws, so points come, wins mostly don't. The model's predicted goals put it plainly: Arsenal 2, Everton 0.8. That's not a gap you close by hanging on. Football can still throw a draw at you, and that's how this loses. I just don't see Arsenal's home form handing one over. Arsenal to win, 67%. #AFC #EFC #PremierLeague

Over 1.5 goals, 78%, and Forest's away games are the reason. There have been over 1.5 goals in 13 consecutive Nottm Forest away league games, so two goals is what their road trips tend to produce. Forest have also scored in 13 consecutive away league games. That's a side that travels with goals in it. They've conceded in 15 of their last 20 away league games too, so their own back door doesn't shut often either. Ipswich are up this season, so their home figures are mostly from last season's division. Even so, they've scored in 18 of their last 20 home league games (90%), and there have been over 1.5 goals in 8 consecutive Ipswich home league games. They've also conceded in 7 consecutive league games, so they're not locking games down. The model expects Ipswich to score 1.3 goals and Forest 1.6, which reads like two sides that both get forward. For this to lose, the game needs only one goal or none, and neither side's recent scoring points that way. Football still gets a vote. Over 1.5 goals, 78%. #ITFC #NFFC #PremierLeague

Tottenham to win, sixty-six percent, and the case starts with the model's predicted goals: Tottenham two point two, Coventry point nine. That gap is the heart of this call. I won't pretend the recent results are doing the work here. I'm leaning on the goals, and I'll say so plainly. At home, Spurs keep finding the net. They've scored in 16 of their last 20 home league games, 80%. That's a side that doesn't often leave its own ground without a goal. Coventry are up this season, so their last-20 figures come mostly from the Championship, not this league. Away from home in that run they conceded in 13 of their last 20 away league games, 65%, so their back door was open more often than not on the road. For this to lose you need a draw or a Coventry win. With a goal gap like the one the model expects, I can see why it doesn't fancy either. Football still gets a vote, and I'll give it its due. Tottenham to win, sixty-six percent. #THFC #PUSB #PremierLeague