Quant Macro | Economic Policy | Cross-Asset Trading
New York, NY
Joined May 2024
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2 more hours to get a 25% discount on either the full research or the new morning monitor offering
After a 4.4% down day, how far does it reach? Households hold equities worth 278% of a year of disposable income, against 161% at the 2000 peak. Today's Beacon sizes the channels: who owns the shares, spending, taxes and saving. research.lighthousemacro.com…
Corporate taxes fell 16 percent to 7.1 percent of Federal Receipts, from 10.8 percent in FY2024, and customs fell 11 percent but still held 3.2 percent. Individual income and payroll taxes now supply 86 percent. Households carry more of the load as the corporate share shrinks.
On November 3, CCC spreads were 3.64 times B spreads, up from 2.71 times a year earlier and in the 94th percentile of the window. CCC trailed BB by 5.3 points in total return over 3 months, and the CCC-B gap was 954bps. The stress sits at the bottom of the ratings ladder.
After a 4.4% down day, how far does it reach? Households hold equities worth 278% of a year of disposable income, against 161% at the 2000 peak. Today's Beacon sizes the channels: who owns the shares, spending, taxes and saving. research.lighthousemacro.com…
Another college football Saturday that THE Providence College Friars have not been defeated. Incredible. Better streak than your favorite team, I assure you that much. #FootballFriars #UsWeTogetherFamilyFriars #FriartownUSA
Also, in case any of you want to do a bob like me such a kindness as supporting my hard work with more than just kind words & well wishes, we are running a 25% off sale for both the main product and our new morning monitor offering. Would be cool if you did.
Once you take out BLS's January population update, the household survey added 791k jobs in the year to September, more than payrolls' 580k. A lot of the 'two surveys disagree' story looks like a population-control artifact. Today's Chartbook opens there, then works through Thursday's rout.
lighthousemacro.substack.com…
Lighthouse Macro retweeted
SKEW closed at 150.9 on Nov 4 with the VIX at 16.6. SKEW sits in the 89th percentile since 2016, the VIX in the 49th. The fit says 137 for this VIX level, a 14-point gap: tail protection is priced richer than the VIX implies.
Once you take out BLS's January population update, the household survey added 791k jobs in the year to September, more than payrolls' 580k. A lot of the 'two surveys disagree' story looks like a population-control artifact. Today's Chartbook opens there, then works through Thursday's rout.
lighthousemacro.substack.com…
SKEW closed at 150.9 on Nov 4 with the VIX at 16.6. SKEW sits in the 89th percentile since 2016, the VIX in the 49th. The fit says 137 for this VIX level, a 14-point gap: tail protection is priced richer than the VIX implies.
From bitcoin's Oct 6, 2025 peak close to Nov 4, bitcoin is -36%. Coinbase is -61%, Strategy -60% and Marathon -67%, roughly 1.7x to 1.9x bitcoin's loss. The equity wrappers have carried more of the drawdown than the coin.
Crazy the whole country is discussing a random high school in Connecticut with a good lacrosse program, but I guess that’s just how the news cycle goes these days.
Lighthouse Macro retweeted
AI gear went from 15% to 23% of US imports in two years, and the current account deficit barely moved. The New York Fed's answer is one accounting identity, and it points at Washington.
Marginal Matters, free: research.lighthousemacro.com…
AI gear went from 15% to 23% of US imports in two years, and the current account deficit barely moved. The New York Fed's answer is one accounting identity, and it points at Washington.
Marginal Matters, free: research.lighthousemacro.com…
Lighthouse Macro retweeted
Starting your most incoherent sentence with "put simply" to deflect blame onto the reader
