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Are prediction markets unbiased sources of information, or do we now need to consider the ruling of the supreme judge, @UMAprotocol , when placing a bet on @Polymarket ? Let’s delve into the Venezuelan election market polymarket.com/event/venezue… history and raise some questions for @Polymarket and @UMAprotocol . I’m not great at writing, but today’s events in the prediction markets deserve some explanation imo. @Polymarket is a leading player in the prediction market, attracting liquidity from participants worldwide. It’s becoming a go-to platform for assessing the likelihood of various events. Screenshots from @Polymarket frequently appear in major Western media, and even Trump has posted Polymarket screenshots. @Polymarket design ensures that each market is closed through voting by @UMAprotocol holders. UMA functions as an oracle with built-in motivations for token holders to vote. On July 28, Venezuelan elections were held, and Polymarket took bets on this event. Before the election, Maduro had a 75-80% chance of winning (despite exit polls showing much less). What did the market believe? That Maduro was highly likely to cheat and the opposition wouldn’t manage to win. Importantly, the market rules stated: "The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Venezuela, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice." What happened next? The elections concluded, and the Venezuelan electoral commission (CNE) announced that Maduro won with 51.2%. The market at this time surged to 95% YES for Maduro. @Polymarket tweeted this teapaw.org/Polymarket/status/1817… . Around this time, @UMAprotocol began a dispute over the YES for Maduro’s victory. Meanwhile, countries recognizing the Venezuelan election results congratulated Maduro, while the opposition started presenting evidence of election fraud. Over the next 24 hours, a discussion in UMA argued it was too early to declare a winner, suggesting that the CNE data looked suspicious and more concrete data was needed. Consequently, the YES Maduro market began to reverse, and some large players started buying cheap NO Maduro and YES Gonzalez. In the UMA discord, there was clear lobbying to distrust the official data and wait. The @UMAprotocol community voted—it was too early to make a conclusion. Over the next week (July 29 - August 5), the market stabilized at 70-75c YES for Maduro. Intense debates continued in the UMA discord, focusing on: 1) The word "Primary" could be devalued by "However." 2) Opposition data from voting machines could be considered official, whereas CNE data was deemed untrustworthy. 3) UMA should rely on a trusted consensus (Carter Center information, Blinken’s statements, opposition data, etc.). On August 5, a dispute concluded with YES for Gonzalez. The UMA community decided Gonzalez won, causing Maduro’s value to drop from 75c to 0. This essentially meant Polymarket and UMA recognized someone who officially lost as the winner. Given these events, I have several questions for @Polymarket and @UMAprotocol : 1. Rules: Why do you write rules where anyone with enough influence and capital can argue that "However" devalues "Primary"? Why allow lobbying that official data is nonsense and a "consensus of Western democracies" should be trusted instead? 2. Decision-Making: Why can the UMA community ignore official data and decide it’s untrustworthy? 3. Consistency: Maduro was recognized as the winner on @ManifoldMarkets . Does this mean one platform (poly or mani) made a political statement and ceased to be neutral? Or did one platform simply make a mistake? 4. Bias: Is Polymarket now a platform where we must consider the political positions of UMA token holders when determining outcomes? Are we betting on the official result or on how the UMA community will vote? 5. Authority: Is UMA now a political or judicial entity that can bypass official documents and decide the truth? Will future political markets ignore official data and resolve based on UMA’s political stance? 6. Neutrality: Is Polymarket still a neutral organization? PS: I’m not discussing the moral aspects, the freedom of the Venezuelan people, or who is right or wrong politically. I always thought I was betting on prediction markets without any political interests, certainly not on markets where outcomes are based on political positions that ignore official data. I’d like to hear the views of @Polymarket, @UMAprotocol, and @shayne_coplan on these questions. Reposts are welcome.