Hi, @uTobian , I want to make sure you know of this :
goodreads.com/book/show/2128…
"What kind of plan is viable for Russia to escalate against Europe?"
1. Announce you'll hit the NATO HQ in Brussels in 24h. 2. Do so. 3. Repeat in a similar vein whenever you wish.
Here is the scenario that worries me. Russia cannot decide to attack a NATO country without a viable military plan. What kind of plan is viable for Russia to escalate against Europe?
The Russian problem is this: The West is bankrolling, arming, and providing tactical intelligence to strike the Russian homeland. This is eroding morale at home, even more than the slow progress in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russian is not able to impose comparable costs on the West with hybrid warfare.
Moscow understands that a window of opportunity has opened up because Russian defense production has ramped up much faster than Western defense production. They have a window in which they have the West outgunned, particularly when it comes to a missile war.
Russia is tempted by a fait accompli strategy akin to the Egyptian strategy in the Yom Kippur War. Given the massive advantage of prepared defenses, the most promising strategy is to rapidly occupy the Baltics and immediately move to a defense-in-depth. They can then hold the line at the Suwalki Gap in the ground war. Meanwhile, they can use their upper hand in the missile balance to coerce the West to back down; and impose comparable costs if it does not.
Moscow may convince itself that it can control escalation with the threat of first use. And perhaps that is correct. However, as I have argued before, an upper hand in the missile balance is not a theory of victory.
What Moscow must determine is whether an occupation of the Baltics and bringing the war to Europe will be enough to break Nato, to defeat the West, or at least get it to come to terms. It is not obvious that calling Nato's bluff in the Baltics will be sufficient to break Nato. Nato may decide to fight on, if for no other reason than the iron grip of the Atlanticist elites. It may then become a very painful and very protracted war against the combined might of the West.
Tempting plan then. But very high risk. I have a sense that Moscow might use this threat for compellence instead. But what if compellence fails? Recall that Moscow attempted compellence with Biden, demanding Ukrainian neutrality with the threat of war. The US told him to get lost. The risk for Moscow is that the West may do the same thing again.
That being said, recall the problem that no analyst assessed both that (1) Russia would attack Ukraine and (2) that it would be a protracted war of attrition. The underlying reason is the natural analytical desire for epistemic closure.
Another analytical risk today is simple fear of world war. It is hard to imagine nuclear-armed great powers going to war against each other. The outcomes are too horrific to contemplate.
But just because it would potentially be a catastrophic error for Putin, does not mean he cannot persuaded himself to do it. In my assessment, the risk of a world war is real. The West has cornered Russia into a difficult position. Escalation may seem more attractive to Moscow than continuing the slow grind.
Dorian B retweeted
So close! Only 997,403 more YouTube subscribers to go before I hit that cool million.
youtube.com/@wmb
Dorian B retweeted
What does it say about you if you look at this infant and see a threat that must be eliminated?
And what does it say about the values of the countries that defend and enable these murders?
This is the 7-month-old Palestinian baby shot & killed by an Israeli soldier yesterday.
I just found out that I'm blocked by an MD that last Oct I just asked of her views.
This is the n-th time to be met with intolerance when calm & 100% polite. Exceptional civility may carry a high risk of causing rage. Being exceptional is exactly what makes it *NOT beliveable*.
Replying to @arsalfeed @Housebots
I'm a boomer.I get frustrated with my peers won't LOOK at subjects that make them "uncomfortable," then whine that someone should "fix this mess." Just be curious and courageous enough to LOOK, learn, ask questions, STOP trusting "authorities." Reclaim response-ability & power.
** Fake News ** ALERT
BREAKING: In a direct message to the Trump administration and the US Navy, China's Defense Minister Admiral Dong Jun says Chinese ships will continue transiting the Strait of Hormuz through agreements with Iran, and warns the US not to "meddle in our affairs."
Also from Dong's statement:
1. Says Chinese ships are currently "moving in and out of the waters of the Strait of Hormuz"
2. Confirms China has existing "trade and energy agreements with Iran" that China will "respect and honor"
3. Explicitly states: "Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and it is open for us," recognizing Iranian sovereignty over transit
Dorian B retweeted
"That best portion of a man's life: his little, nameless, unremembered acts of kindness and love."
~ William Wordsworth
Dorian B retweeted
Moments ago, while strolling across the magical Imam Square in Isfahan, Iran, we heard several explosions in the distance (one of which is audible just after the 1-minute mark of this video).
Yet no one flinched. No one screamed. No one ran for cover.
Compare the calm response of Isfahan’s residents to the frenzied fear of Israeli colonists when missile sirens ring in their cities - and bear in mind that Israelis claim to have missile defence systems that are vastly superior to those of Iran.
Finally, note how many adult women are walking in public in Imam Square with no head covering.
They’re telling you a pack of lies about Iran.
#IranWar #Iran
Dorian B retweeted
🚨 DELETED VIDEO ALERT: This didn’t disappear by accident.
Rep. Thomas Massie says Trump called him on the House floor after he pushed to release the Epstein files.
Not once. Not twice.
Three times:
“I’m coming at you like you’ve never seen in your life.”
Let that sink in.
A sitting president allegedly threatening a member of Congress…for trying to release documents tied to Jeffrey Epstein.
Then the video gets wiped off the platform?
The question isn’t what Massie said.
The question is: why was it so dangerous it had to be erased?
Dorian B retweeted
Happening now in Tehran:
After a 9-hour drive from Tabriz to Tehran, we arrived in Tehran at 5:30 am this morning.
We are now walking with a great mass of people to the largest mosque in Iran, the Grand Mosalla of Tehran, for Eid Al Fether.
#iran
Dorian B retweeted
Gilbert Doctorow: Attack on Iran Hardens Russia's Stance on Ukraine
m.youtube.com/watch?v=eczyry…
Dorian B retweeted
16th century Rose Garden Palace destroyed by Zio-nists!
This Post is from a suspended account. Learn more
Lives of the hundreds of millions of migrant workers in China in their own words:
yuzhehe.com/p/slow-trains-in… Revealing, It quite affected me emotionally.
Dorian B retweeted
Anyone who thinks socialism is about redistributing wealth to try to force everyone to be equal is either actually retarded or in on the con.
Marx mocked people like this mercilessly.
This quoted post is unavailable.
A good discussion on:
1. The psychological consequences of money 2006)
2. Higher social class predicts increased unethical behavior (2012)
3. Does studying economics inhibit cooperation? (1993)
youtube.com/watch?v=rhtup3h9…
Dorian B retweeted
This is 16-year-old Alyssa and the books she read during the year her school was closed because of Covid.
I recently interviewed her mom, Angela.
When the school reopened, everyone was required to get the Covid vaccine.
Alyssa was dead seven days after her second shot.
There is nothing left that can be done for Alyssa.
But the brightness of the memory of her life can shed light on the darkness all around us.
The numbers of those suffering daily - and dying - from vaccine injury is IMMENSE.
The previous administration’s government officials told Americans that without the vaccine they were going to die or kill others, while systematically censoring anyone who was killed or injured by that same vaccine.
Every US congressman and senator has been made aware of these injustices and injuries.
We cannot undo the evils that the previous administration caused.
The new administration now bears full responsibility for acknowledging these harms and taking decisive action to address them.
Own this responsibility, continue acknowledging the truth, act with integrity and lead with courage - the injured are depending on you, and failure to act will only allow suffering and death to continue, further eroding trust in public health.
@SecKennedy @NIHDirector_Jay @DrJBhattacharya @MartinKulldorff @DrMakaryFDA @VPrasadMDMPH @TracyBethHoeg @RetsefL
Dorian B retweeted
Note Of Extreme Caution To Comrades:
DO NOT FALL FOR THE “IT’S ALL ABOUT OIL” LIE
I’ve lived through multiple imperial wars where the so-called “left” reflexively responded with the same lazy line: “They’re just there for the oil.” I remember this explicitly during the First Gulf War, and implicitly throughout Iraq, Libya, and Syria.
This is historical bunk. The United States never extracted shit from Iraq. Not in any meaningful sense. Not structurally. Not in a way that lowered prices, improved supply, or benefited the American public. The argument collapses entirely once you understand the nature of financialized capital, whose primary objective is not extraction but the prevention of productive extraction in favor of rent, debt, and control.
Let me walk you through the contradiction:
Trump claims explicitly what the original neocons like Paul Wolfowitz claimed implicitly in the 1990s: that there is a geopolitical payoff in seizing another country’s resources. To a battered American population paying $5 a gallon, that claim sounds concrete. On a subconscious level, people imagine that “taking the oil” means cheaper gas, lower costs, relief from austerity.
They don’t care about morality. They care about price. Then the left responds by framing everything as kleptocracy while still implicitly accepting the premise that resources could be taken, but that doing so would merely be “wrong.” This is a losing argument. For someone living under austerity, there is no material counter-logic being offered. You’ve conceded the terrain.
But here’s the reality: it never comes. Nothing is extracted.
What actually happened in Iraq was not oil extraction, but financial looting. The U.S. state shoveled pork-barrel money into the MIC, especially firms like Halliburton, through no-bid logistics, security, and “reconstruction” contracts. Iraqi oil production, which hovered around 3.5 million barrels per day in the late 1980s, collapsed to a few hundred thousand barrels per day during parts of the 1990s and early 2000s. Even after the U.S. exit in 2011, it took another decade for Iraq to claw its way back to those production levels and only then through Chinese state-led industrial investment, not American capital.
So the correct response to Trump’s argument is not moral outrage. It is to deny the premise entirely: these wars produce no material gain for anyone tangibly; only financialization, debt, suppressed production, and long-term economic ruin. Then the US economy falls apart and they print more dollars to synthesize "profit" from thin air. Sure capital accumulation occurs, completely bereft of logic and reality!
Ironically, Trump himself understands this. He has repeatedly mocked the old neocons for failing to “take the oil,” lamenting their sheer incompetence and lack of “management.” But that critique misses the deeper truth: they didn’t fail. The system worked exactly as designed.
Which brings us to Venezuela.
Do you seriously believe that Trump, along with his Palantir Technologies cronies, are about to become industrial planners? That without invasion, without regime change, without national reconstruction, they’ll somehow negotiate a $200 billion, 15-year industrial oil expansion in a country whose infrastructure has been deliberately strangled for a decade?
This is a pipe dream of pipe dreams.
What’s actually lined up for Venezuela is not extraction, but asset stripping. The firms positioned to “re-enter” Venezuela are overwhelmingly financial, not productive. Asset managers like BlackRock are positioned to absorb distressed sovereign and PDVSA-linked debt, restructure it, and turn future production into collateral streams rather than national revenue. U.S. and European oil majors are waiting not to build capacity but for production-sharing agreements, arbitration rulings, and debt-for-equity swaps that cap output and guarantee rents. Sanctions relief is used as leverage not to expand capacity, but to discipline the state and force Venezuela into IMF-style restructuring, privatization, and legal subordination to Western capital markets. They want the Chinese to pay for this oil in dollars, a minor nuisance for Xi, a silly ploy for the western rentier oligarchs.
In a derivatives-driven, dollar-hegemonic system, money is not made by flooding markets with oil. It is made by restricting supply, inflating prices, securitizing future flows, and extracting rents through debt instruments.
That is the real play. Not oil for Americans.
Not development for Venezuela. But financial control, chopped-up industry, suppressed production, and higher global prices. Here is how the mechanism actually functions, step by step, as a single integrated system:
PDVSA entered the 2010s with roughly $30–35 billion in external debt, much of it accumulated during the oil-price collapse after 2014. That debt was issued under New York and international commercial law, not Venezuelan law, making it immediately vulnerable to foreign litigation once payments slowed.
U.S. sanctions, primarily enforced through the Treasury Department’s OFAC regime, did not simply “punish” Venezuela. They froze PDVSA’s access to dollar clearing, blocked refinancing, prohibited U.S. persons from rolling over debt, and severed access to spare parts, diluents, insurance, shipping, and reinsurance. This guaranteed production collapse. Output fell from over 2.3 million barrels per day in 2015 to under 700 thousand by 2020. This collapse was then cited as evidence of “mismanagement,” completing the narrative loop.
Once payment defaults occurred under sanctions-induced conditions, creditors activated arbitration and litigation channels. Bilateral investment treaties signed in the 1990s gave foreign firms standing in ICSID, the World Bank–linked arbitration system designed explicitly to protect capital against sovereign states. Venezuela now faces tens of billions of dollars in ICSID awards and claims, many tied to pre-Chávez privatizations and post-Chávez nationalizations.
Those arbitration awards are enforceable not inside Venezuela, but against Venezuelan assets abroad. This is why CITGO, PDVSA’s U.S. subsidiary, became the primary target. Courts in Delaware treat arbitration judgments as senior claims. The result is not compensation through production, but forced asset liquidation and debt waterfalls.
At no point does this process require rebuilding Venezuelan oil capacity. In fact, rebuilding capacity would undermine the entire structure by increasing supply and reducing price leverage. The rational financial outcome is permanently constrained production, collateralized future barrels, and externally controlled cash flows.
Sanctions create default. Default activates arbitration. Arbitration enables asset seizure. Asset seizure disciplines the state. Financial firms then step in to “stabilize” the wreckage through debt restructuring, equity swaps, and price-managed reentry. The oil stays mostly in the ground. The rents flow outward.
This is why the “they just want the oil” line is not merely wrong but backwards. The oil is most valuable when it is not produced, when it exists as a future claim backing debt, derivatives, and geopolitical leverage.
Anyone telling you otherwise is either historically illiterate or selling the lie. Trump is simply accelerating the debt peonage machine, not extracting resources like the Roman Raubbauwirtschaft fantasy.
The reality is the western left spent decades making the "it's wrong to extract resources cus' muh morality" argument and IT NEVER HAPPENED. It's a loser, it's time to contradict the financial oligarchy as FUNDAMENTALLY UNPRODUCTIVE in all senses.























