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Alvin, Tx.
Joined February 2012
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One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
‼️ Elevate your QB (and offense). That man had a whole offseason to figure out what they can do to be successful. I’m not trying to hear shit about what they can’t do 8 weeks into a season.
MACK retweeted
Tonight, the American people sent a clear message — they want a politics that brings people together rather than divides them, and leaders who offer concrete solutions to the challenges they face.
These results were only possible because outstanding candidates stepped forward in every region of the country — including in areas once considered long shots. They came from different backgrounds and represented a range of political perspectives, but were united by shared values, a belief in public service, and a commitment to putting the people of their districts and states first.
We also owe a debt of gratitude to the thousands of election officials and volunteers from both parties who helped ensure a smooth election and carried out one of the most essential functions of our democracy.
While this administration has another two years in office, our job now is to roll up our sleeves, make changes wherever we have the power to do so, prevent further damage, and lay the groundwork for the future.
MACK retweeted
Former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya has lost her first political race, running as a Republican in Minnesota.
She was backed by the owners of the Minnesota Vikings and Wild, as well as the owners of the Browns, Saints, and Bucs.
MACK retweeted
Democrat Gina Hinojosa will become the first Latina governor of Texas, CNN projects, ending the more than three-decade Republican hold on the seat. Follow live updates. cnn.it/4838uyT
MACK retweeted
History is made in Harris County. Letitia Plummer becomes the first Black woman elected county judge.
MACK retweeted
BREAKING: Polymarket projects Gina Hinojosa has unseated Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, becoming the first Democrat to win the office since 1990 — 99% chance.
MACK retweeted
Nerds going from ~$40M to nearly $900M since launching Gummy Clusters might be one of the most underreported CPG stories of the decade.
And it almost didn’t work.
The idea actually started in 2001 with Nerds Rope. But no breakout.
Then Gummy Clusters launched in 2020 with just ~$700K of marketing. Early tests flopped.
In 2021, Kylie Jenner posted them organically to ~200M followers: “Next level.”
TikTok took it from there. The crunch became ASMR content.
Sales:
2020: ~$8M
2024: $500M+
Today: approaching $900M
Repeat is insane too:
More than 1 in 5 buyers purchase 6+ times a year.
Nerds has now passed Skittles as America’s #1 sugar candy.
And Mars is responding with gummy versions of Skittles + Starburst.
Big M&A win. Ferrero bought Nestlé’s entire US candy portfolio in 2018 for $2.8B: Butterfinger. Crunch. SweeTARTS. Laffy Taffy. Nerds.
Nerds was basically an afterthought.
Today, the value created by Nerds alone may have effectively paid for the whole acquisition.
They were playing defense to create a turnover. Probably because their offense couldn’t score any points..again
I’m not. When your offense/QB is struggling to move the ball, adjust your game plan immediately. You knew that man wasn’t an accurate thrower and/or timing QB 100 days ago.
