@LondonSnowWatch

Short, medium & long range forecasts for southern England. No hype, no like/rt bait. Snow watch Nov➡March, weather all year round. I'm the sensible one

 N London/S Herts, 130m asl
Joined May 2011
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October? Overall plenty high pressure (dry, calm, mild days. Poss fog+chilly nights) BUT W/ seasonal wavelengths heading towards autumnal/winter state spawning of deep Atlantic lows increases so less settled interludes may be more pronounced Plus quoted tweet still applies👇
Sᴏᴜᴛʜᴇʀɴ ᴇɴɢʟᴀɴᴅ ᴡᴇᴀᴛʜᴇʀ@LondonSnowWatchAug 8
As mentioned in the August forecast, recurving ex hurricanes/tropical storms can play havoc with modelling and reduce confidence in mid-long range forecasts There currently aren't any such storms active in the Atlantic but we're likely to see some later in August 👀
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Beautiful satellite image The warm front and accompanying rain clearing E, revealing widespread mountain/lee waves That's those neat rows of clouds From the ground looking up, where the lower cloud clears, you might spot some smooth, rounded lenticular clouds this afternoon
Round the corner from me by Monken Hadley Church Luckily no one was hurt ❤️
Sᴏᴜᴛʜᴇʀɴ ᴇɴɢʟᴀɴᴅ ᴡᴇᴀᴛʜᴇʀ@LondonSnowWatchOct 24
Mostly dry on Sunday with some sunshine & everything! BUT It will be windy. Especially earlier in day For many of us, it'll be windier than Austen & Boelo - particularly inland & for Norfolk coastline⚠️ These gusts could bring down trees weakened during summer heat/drought⚠️
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Had enough of wind & rain? You're in luck.... Strong signal for high pressure to calm things down from mid week to see out October and into early November Lots of dry and calm weather, only a very small shower risk on occasion Temps around average but poss chilly nights
Sᴏᴜᴛʜᴇʀɴ ᴇɴɢʟᴀɴᴅ ᴡᴇᴀᴛʜᴇʀ@LondonSnowWatchOct 20
After this unsettled spell, does seem to be a moderate signal for high pressure to settle things down from ~middle of next week to see out October But plenty of energy in the Atlantic & typical October contrasting air masses which can amplify the jet - so low confidence for now
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A well defined frontal clearance always hits the spot I'm not sure I've ever watched a cold front clear at night with stars, moon and such a straight line (the moon shot was a fail)
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Those little squalls developing now This isn't about severe weather for southern England, maybe some brief washing machine weather where the squalls pass through but nothing major it's not until the cold front clears England that it'll be an impressive, meaty line 🤓
Sᴏᴜᴛʜᴇʀɴ ᴇɴɢʟᴀɴᴅ ᴡᴇᴀᴛʜᴇʀ@LondonSnowWatchOct 24
The back edge of the rain band (CF) might develop a squall line for parts of the south late afternoon into the evening And into the early hours, that squall line may well stretch from SW Norway, through parts of Benelux to Western France
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Mostly dry on Sunday with some sunshine & everything! BUT It will be windy. Especially earlier in day For many of us, it'll be windier than Austen & Boelo - particularly inland & for Norfolk coastline⚠️ These gusts could bring down trees weakened during summer heat/drought⚠️
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The back edge of the rain band (CF) might develop a squall line for parts of the south late afternoon into the evening And into the early hours, that squall line may well stretch from SW Norway, through parts of Benelux to Western France
Sᴏᴜᴛʜᴇʀɴ ᴇɴɢʟᴀɴᴅ ᴡᴇᴀᴛʜᴇʀ@LondonSnowWatchOct 16
So with cut off low earlier in the week and Atlantic muscling in later in the week, it's shaping up to be potentially the most unsettled week across the south for many, many months Doesn't necessarily mean tons of rain for every garden unfortunately - that's for nearer the time
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Here's max gusts today still rather gusty over far east Kent, but we are now done with peak gusts from Austen Tomorrow brings another named storm, further north in uk A very wet one with 15-20mm quite widely across the south Gusts 35-45mph inland & 50-60mph towards coasts
Sᴏᴜᴛʜᴇʀɴ ᴇɴɢʟᴀɴᴅ ᴡᴇᴀᴛʜᴇʀ@LondonSnowWatchOct 23
Here's max gusts so far today. Not all stations Austen ended up a little further south & a little less deep. Hence, barely a breeze across London, E Midlands & E Anglia currently (image 2) It'll pick up as the low pulls away, prob not up as much as 50mph in green shading tho
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Here's max gusts so far today. Not all stations Austen ended up a little further south & a little less deep. Hence, barely a breeze across London, E Midlands & E Anglia currently (image 2) It'll pick up as the low pulls away, prob not up as much as 50mph in green shading tho
Sᴏᴜᴛʜᴇʀɴ ᴇɴɢʟᴀɴᴅ ᴡᴇᴀᴛʜᴇʀ@LondonSnowWatchOct 22
Storm Austen peak gust final forecast I've updated the forecast from Tuesday Biggest impacts in the SW, but risk of trees falling anywhere due to the first event of the season with such gusts and more weak trees than usual after the summer heat & drought ⚠️ Stay safe
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Storm Austen peak gust final forecast I've updated the forecast from Tuesday Biggest impacts in the SW, but risk of trees falling anywhere due to the first event of the season with such gusts and more weak trees than usual after the summer heat & drought ⚠️ Stay safe
Sᴏᴜᴛʜᴇʀɴ ᴇɴɢʟᴀɴᴅ ᴡᴇᴀᴛʜᴇʀ@LondonSnowWatchOct 20
Storm Austen peak gusts At +2 days out, this may be updated Significant in the SW generally & especially at the tip of Cornwall with up to 80mph gusts possible ⚠️ 35-50mph will be enough to bring down weak trees - & there are more than usual after the summer heat & drought ⚠️
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The met office amber warning issued this morning was already factored into the gust forecast below from yesterday, with poss gusts of 80mph in Cornwall No big changes expected I'll probably increase the gusts by 5mph in the green area to 40-50mph
Sᴏᴜᴛʜᴇʀɴ ᴇɴɢʟᴀɴᴅ ᴡᴇᴀᴛʜᴇʀ@LondonSnowWatchOct 20
Storm Austen peak gusts At +2 days out, this may be updated Significant in the SW generally & especially at the tip of Cornwall with up to 80mph gusts possible ⚠️ 35-50mph will be enough to bring down weak trees - & there are more than usual after the summer heat & drought ⚠️
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It's currently only 7.7c after a high of 10.8c at 11am
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I finally got some decent, double digit millimetreage 🎊☔
Sᴏᴜᴛʜᴇʀɴ ᴇɴɢʟᴀɴᴅ ᴡᴇᴀᴛʜᴇʀ@LondonSnowWatchOct 16
So with cut off low earlier in the week and Atlantic muscling in later in the week, it's shaping up to be potentially the most unsettled week across the south for many, many months Doesn't necessarily mean tons of rain for every garden unfortunately - that's for nearer the time
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After this unsettled spell, does seem to be a moderate signal for high pressure to settle things down from ~middle of next week to see out October But plenty of energy in the Atlantic & typical October contrasting air masses which can amplify the jet - so low confidence for now
Sᴏᴜᴛʜᴇʀɴ ᴇɴɢʟᴀɴᴅ ᴡᴇᴀᴛʜᴇʀ@LondonSnowWatchSep 23
October? Overall plenty high pressure (dry, calm, mild days. Poss fog+chilly nights) BUT W/ seasonal wavelengths heading towards autumnal/winter state spawning of deep Atlantic lows increases so less settled interludes may be more pronounced Plus quoted tweet still applies👇
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Storm Austen peak gusts At +2 days out, this may be updated Significant in the SW generally & especially at the tip of Cornwall with up to 80mph gusts possible ⚠️ 35-50mph will be enough to bring down weak trees - & there are more than usual after the summer heat & drought ⚠️
Sᴏᴜᴛʜᴇʀɴ ᴇɴɢʟᴀɴᴅ ᴡᴇᴀᴛʜᴇʀ@LondonSnowWatchSep 23
October? Overall plenty high pressure (dry, calm, mild days. Poss fog+chilly nights) BUT W/ seasonal wavelengths heading towards autumnal/winter state spawning of deep Atlantic lows increases so less settled interludes may be more pronounced Plus quoted tweet still applies👇
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I'd be much more inclined to attribute the upcoming cyclogenesis to the natural seasonal wavelengths I mentioned in the October forecast below Rather than jumping on the el nino bandwagon Historically, el nino can contribute to stormy spells late autumn/early winter (Nov/Dec)
Sᴏᴜᴛʜᴇʀɴ ᴇɴɢʟᴀɴᴅ ᴡᴇᴀᴛʜᴇʀ@LondonSnowWatchSep 23
October? Overall plenty high pressure (dry, calm, mild days. Poss fog+chilly nights) BUT W/ seasonal wavelengths heading towards autumnal/winter state spawning of deep Atlantic lows increases so less settled interludes may be more pronounced Plus quoted tweet still applies👇
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Definitely a risk of a deep southerly tracking low (wind & rain) Fri into Sat that needs monitoring but details not possible yet Back to today & the cut off low bringing showers in from the east into parts of the east/se. Overnight a more widespread area of rain will move in ☔
Sᴏᴜᴛʜᴇʀɴ ᴇɴɢʟᴀɴᴅ ᴡᴇᴀᴛʜᴇʀ@LondonSnowWatchOct 16
So that cut off low I mentioned It looks like it will be present across southern England Sunday into first part of next week This will bring some showers at times to the region, most prevalent in the east No big rain totals but a few mm here and there
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Dipped down to 4.7c here overnight Coldest night of the autumn so far An air frost at exposed Benson
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In winter, they'd get all giddy and call this a streamer 😁🫢
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So with cut off low earlier in the week and Atlantic muscling in later in the week, it's shaping up to be potentially the most unsettled week across the south for many, many months Doesn't necessarily mean tons of rain for every garden unfortunately - that's for nearer the time
Sᴏᴜᴛʜᴇʀɴ ᴇɴɢʟᴀɴᴅ ᴡᴇᴀᴛʜᴇʀ@LondonSnowWatchOct 16
later next week it looks like turning unsettled more widely as deep lows push in from the Atlantic Northern UK will see the worst of the weather but some rain & possibly stronger winds will certainly be possible down south How much rain & how windy is still yet to be resolved
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