Managing Partner of ShadowFall, a short-focused hedge fund. Assume @ShadowFallCR holds a short position in Issuers discussed. Formerly, https://xitter.cf/t.co/hCdW06tJCd
London, England
Joined July 2014
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Einer schlägt zurück | ZEIT ONLINE zeit.de/2023/11/matthew-earl…
Matthew Earl retweeted
This is madness
🌍 European countries that added the most migrants (2000–2024)
1. 🇬🇧 United Kingdom: +7.1M
2. 🇪🇸 Spain: +6.8M
3. 🇩🇪 Germany: +6.4M
4. 🇹🇷 Türkiye: +5.8M
5. 🇮🇹 Italy: +4.4M
6. 🇫🇷 France: +3.0M
7. 🇦🇹 Austria: +1.4M
8. 🇳🇱 Netherlands: +1.4M
9. 🇨🇭 Switzerland: +1.3M
10. 🇧🇪 Belgium: +1.3M
11. 🇸🇪 Sweden: +1.3M
12. 🇵🇱 Poland: +917K
13. 🇮🇪 Ireland: +840K
14. 🇳🇴 Norway: +720K
15. 🇷🇴 Romania: +521K
16. 🇵🇹 Portugal: +476K
17. 🇩🇰 Denmark: +475K
18. 🇭🇺 Hungary: +393K
19. 🇨🇿 Czechia: +386K
20. 🇫🇮 Finland: +378K
Europe's migrant population grew by 40.8 million between 2000 and 2024, up 67%. The UK, Spain and Germany together account for almost half of that increase.
Source: UN DESA
Matthew Earl retweeted
@BBC set to announce redundancies this afternoon, I nominate those who produced this crap to be first to go
Matthew Earl retweeted
Repeated revelations of dodgy goings on in Manchester should be making the King of the North anxious.
Some great analysis by @FTAlphaville on £GAW / @warhammer; an extremely crowded UK long.
Some first-rate wit too. Especially considering the people that buy it might have any chance of sexual intercourse 🤣 👇
Is Warhammer still winning? ft.trib.al/xAx2e9w
Matthew Earl retweeted
Hope in all our hearts and growth in every post code 🥰
What an extraordinary set of headlines on the News at Ten (quite amazing given it’s the BBC, but even the Beeb can’t ignore all of this).
>Anne Widdecombe assassination
>Left-wing terror plot against Nigel Farage
>Iranian terrorists arrive in Britain separately *via small boats*
>Record diesel price
This is the state of the Yookay in the Year of Our Lord 2026.
Oh, and the French migrant school protests just across the Channel thrown in for good measure, though the migrant element and level of violence was downplayed in typical BBC fashion.
Matthew Earl retweeted
Takes its customers for granted too. I think some investors would probably benefit from watching some YouTube videos from fed up customers
Matthew Earl retweeted
#gaw $gaw.l
Looks like the market has woken up to the overvaluation of this cult stock (with institutional , not retail)
Difficult short at 200£ , I think the market has turned here , any bounce back to 180£ is a short
My target is between £60-80 based on slowing growth
Matthew Earl retweeted
Anyone struggling to afford a home should be absolutely furious if Labour do this, after it has been shown to leave more people behind, put buyers into negative equity and prop up property ponzi prices.
Shameless populist vote grabbing.
Burnham set to revive Help to Buy scheme in bid to boost housebuilding ft.trib.al/gpEan4o
The one solace … France goes first.
Britain and France are the two counties most vulnerable to a debt crisis. If one goes, the other will inevitably follow. It is called contagion. Me for the @Telegraph telegraph.co.uk/business/202…
Matthew Earl retweeted
Britain and France are the two counties most vulnerable to a debt crisis. If one goes, the other will inevitably follow. It is called contagion. Me for the @Telegraph telegraph.co.uk/business/202…
Is Britain still in hock to bond markets? Or have we now escaped?
1. He can’t even climb a small ladder.
2. He’s desperate and clutching at straws with no understanding of the housing market. For a proper understanding see @moving_charlie
3. The guy clearly can’t string two sentences together, hence every TikTok is cut after one sentence so he can start a new sentence from a script.
4. Worst of all, Gilt yields will inevitably rise on the back of this.
What a mess.
This guy is a perpetual marketing agent. No actual critical analysis. Just a mouthpiece / influencer.
PM will announce Budget will include a new first time buyer subsidy called “Your First Home” for new build homes.
Obviously modelled on but not exactly the same as Help to Buy.
20% equity loan with interest free period and a 2.5% deposit (vs 5%)
Housing developers will pay a fee, but overall scheme funded by “reprioritisation” of existing budgets.
Govt put out its own analysis of help to buy last week, claiming “very high” value for money saying 328k FTBs helped, increased new housing supply by 15%, and claimed £25bn in benefit vs £3.6bn net cost (£31bn cost of loans and admin vs £27bn repayments - this is a forecast, 250k loans still being repaid). It acknowledged pushing up house prices by 2%.
An IFS working paper (April 2026) showed that previous schemes skewed benefits to higher earning renters. The cut in deposit to 2.5% might help address helping those with out access to the “bank of mum
And dad”. But it also adds to the risk of negative equity.
Move has been lobbied for by housing industry, some of whom have been suffering low starts etc especially in London… they will be cheering the idea though the detail of the payment remains. Last year the HBF suggested the developer contribute 1% of the cost.
All in all a limited cost, contingent funding (therefore mainly off the fiscal rules) growth measure, at a time when OBR might be pondering its assumption last year of house supply growth adding 0.2% to GDP by 2029/30 (the biggest positive growth effect it had scored, which HMT said gave rise to £3.4bn more headroom)
Matthew Earl retweeted
Torsten says he wants to support the business chopping 500 jobs in his constituency, but his govt have sharply increased taxes and regulations on jobs. So surprise! Companies reduce employment. Labour’s growth plans in action!
Matthew Earl retweeted
A desperately sorry tale of luxury beliefs overriding economic growth and prosperity in my home town of Hull.
The most depressing line in the whole article: "the BBC understands workers across the sites will be kept on while Ineos tries to buy liquefied natural gas (LNG) directly from the US at lower prices"
Sourcing that LNG will come at four times the carbon footprint of domestically-extracted gas. Well done everybody for an energy policy that makes us poorer, more polluting, and less resilient.👋👋
bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw30…
Matthew Earl retweeted
Doesn’t need experts. The cost of building the average UK house has risen 50% in 5 years - half of which is tax and regulation. Strip those back, volumes will follow.
EXCLUSIVE 🗞️- Britain’s economic watchdog, the OBR, is concerned that it may have to revise down the boost to GDP it had attached to Labour’s flagship planning reforms and 1.5 million new homes target.
The OBR has invited housing market experts in for meetings in a bid to “understand why the housing market is underperforming” so badly.
This will be a blow to the government and signals the state of our housing market amid worsening economic headwinds including inflation and higher mortgage rates which, in their defence, are neither Labour’s fault nor entirely within their control.
It also raised questions about the OBR’s initial forecast which experts have told me was optimistic at best.
My report @theipaper
inews.co.uk/news/hidden-cost…
Matthew Earl retweeted
This is what capital flight looks like 👇
“An investment firm for one of Saudi Arabia’s richest families is relocating from London to Dubai, according to people familiar with the matter, the latest example of private wealth outflows from the UK to the Gulf despite heightened uncertainty from the Iran war.”
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Matthew Earl retweeted
Next boss Simon Wolfson’s detailed takes on retail and the economy always worth a read. He warns the pain on higher employment costs is having feared impact & urges Chancellor to tackle public spending rather than higher taxes that kill growth
Burnham's and Healey's financial savviness will do wonders for the moron premium.
🚨NEW: Chancellor John Healey's team claims that he and Andy Burnham didn't realise how bad Britain's fiscal position was before they got inside the Treasury
[@FT]