Louis Clerc

Very interesting focus groups with Russians on their view of the war. “A striking feature across all groups is a lack of compassion for others, be it towards Ukrainians or fellow Russians sent to fight. And, although some express worries about family members getting conscripted, this does not translate into sympathy for those at the front now. In fact, people dread the return of veterans, fearing new violence at home. (…) When asked if Ukraine is a sovereign country, very few reply with a firm “Yes”. Most say it is not sovereign, or not fully so—if Ukraine is mentioned among the adversaries, it is usually the “Ukrainian regime”, not the country. There is a recognition that Ukraine became a full-fledged, independent state in 1991; but, after that, people believe something happened that caused it to lose sovereignty. They struggle to explain what precisely this was. (….) If the list of Russia’s allies is quite short, the list of unfriendly states is long. “Well—everyone else”, is often the first reply. The bigger European countries—Britain, France and Germany—are usually named first, followed by the Baltic states, Finland and Poland; sometimes also countries like India and Turkey. NATO is an enemy too, for most respondents—one explains that it is because “NATO keeps encroaching on other countries to bring about so-called democracy with bombs.” Ukraine is mentioned, but not as a first choice and somewhat hesitantly—not because it is not seen as an enemy, but because, as explored above, Russians might not regard it as a proper country. And even where it is mentioned, few participants connect its “enemy” status to Russia’s own invasion of Ukraine. (…) Europe’s image seems in many ways in sync with the Kremlin’s own rhetoric. People criticise it for “gay parades”, for “women at the helm”, for didactic lecturing. In some groups, people get into exchanges about Europe’s decline: some maintain Europe is withering away, pointing to pride marches and migrants as proof. Others point out that many states want to join the EU just to benefit from Germany’s or France’s economic might, or because they would otherwise be weaker on their own. (…) Almost no one connects the perceived European “antagonism” to Russia with Europe’s reaction to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine or any other actions by Russia. “I don’t know why the Finns are so antagonistic to us. Maybe they never got over the fact that we took over Karelia in 1940”, opines one respondent. Others complain about their positive attitude towards the Baltic states and these states’ negative attitude towards Russia: “I don’t know why they [the Baltic states] are so adversarial, most probably they were ordered to be like that”, concludes another participant. Confusion, propaganda, wilful ignorance and lack of curiosity probably all play their role in shaping Russians’ perceptions of their country and its external relations. And it also helps explain why the war in Ukraine still seems distant to many in Russia—and why Europe’s own reaction to the war is overwhelmingly seen as negative, almost unfair.    This brings to mind a conversation held by one of the authors with a Moscow sociologist long before the war. Explaining how the Russian people form opinions about the West, the scholar noted that Russia’s own role tends to get forgotten. “For instance, Russia invades Georgia—there is some outcry, then the West imposes sanctions, and soon the population will have decided that the hostile West has attacked Russia with sanctions. That something happened that led to it, that Russia did something—that is soon overlooked. People settle on the opinion that these small countries do not really matter, no one very much needs them, this is all about the West’s competition with Russia.” Some participants in the focus groups echo this: “On what basis is the US even imposing sanctions on us?!” asks one puzzled respondent.” ecfr.eu/publication/bewitche… via @ecfr