bitcoin:native
Expecting something like this:
A countertrend rally towards the $76K area first. The current zone has strong support from the 200 MA and the 0.618 Fib level.
Then one more leg down towards the range lows, with the 50 MA flattening out, just like in 2023.
Stock RSI is also starting to support this scenario.
After that, the new cycle begins.
$BTC
Here we are. The 200 MA has been reached.
Waited patiently for this retest and bought it.
Sentiment is really bad atm.
BUT, we don't want to see multiple closes below the 200 MA and important, we need a weekly close above the 50 MA.
If that happens, we could be looking at our next higher low (HL).
If not, probably < $70k, we will find out soon.
MM₿ retweeted
Bitcoin appears to be confirming the new cycle here. These events provide a really clear and clean setup.
The upside target is around 30 to 45 days, room for a good advance. It is however not guarantee of a major upside move, but provides an excellent anchoring point because a loss of the recent lows ($79,600) is a level where you would want to get very defensive.
bitcoin:native
RSI 50 held, and it looks like we've seen the local bottom.
Whether we'll see lower prices in futures remains to be seen.
I think we head higher first. November will tell.
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bitcoin:native
If $82K support fails, this is where I’ll start deploying.
Bear div lines up with that scenario too.
If you missed it, read the post below.
bitcoin:native
Weekly breakout confirmed.
Now I’m looking for the next HL somewhere in the $80K–$70K (daily MA 200) area.
If we get that retest and it holds, that could be the last really good buy opportunity before continuation.
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bitcoin:native
1⃣First of all, the weekly looks still bullish.
RSI is back above 50 after coming off a bull div, very similar to the 2023 bottom breakout setup.
So I’m sticking with my view: the bottom is in.
2⃣On the lower timeframes, I’m watching the 2D.
If we fall back into the $82K–$76K range, a retest of the 50MA becomes likely, wherever it sits by then.
If that scenario plays out, that’s probably the last really good chance to buy cheap #bitcoin.
The bears will bring back the $46K calls, sentiment will get ugly again — and that’s exactly where I want to be fully invested.
If this plays out in the next 1–2 weeks, come back to this post.
3⃣Just for completeness:
If the weekly closes above $82.5K, and we don’t get two consecutive 2D closes below the 200MA, and price stays in the current range, 2⃣ becomes less likely and you buy this range.
4⃣And for everyone asking “so what is it — up or down?” That’s not how this works.
There’s no crystal ball. You map out the most likely scenarios, define the triggers, and know what you’ll do if each one plays out.
$BTC
Rejection at the 2026 YO was as possibility.
What I don’t want to see now are two things:
1. Two consecutive 2D closes below the 200MA
2. A weekly close below the last LH around $82.5K
That would start looking like a classic false breakout.
If those levels hold though, this is pretty much the perfect retest for continuation.
