Interested in free speech, FOI. Personal account. Never sarcastic
Belfast
Joined November 2009
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мαяк from Sandy Row | 🇬🇧 retweeted
The change from 6 to 5 seats disguised a huge unexplained surge of new Sinn Fein voters.
Looking at Assembly results since 1998, very few seats have changed hands directly between a Nationalist and a Unionist recently (since 2011 a UUP gain from SF in E Antrim & a SDLP gain from UUP in LV, both 2017). The 2017 seat reduction was almost entirely at unionism's expense.
ALT A chart of movement between designations at NI Assembly elections since 1998
мαяк from Sandy Row | 🇬🇧 retweeted
The change from 6 to 5 seats was the biggest legacy of Peter Robinson - and somehow he’s still regarded as some sort of strategic genius by some in the DUP
Looking at Assembly results since 1998, very few seats have changed hands directly between a Nationalist and a Unionist recently (since 2011 a UUP gain from SF in E Antrim & a SDLP gain from UUP in LV, both 2017). The 2017 seat reduction was almost entirely at unionism's expense.
ALT A chart of movement between designations at NI Assembly elections since 1998
This doesn't surprise me. I should add, Alliance are shedding supporters. I presume many are pro union. And you are left with the nationalist leaning rump. No surprise when the party backs SF more than the SDLP – at Belfast, Northern Ireland
мαяк from Sandy Row | 🇬🇧 retweeted
The More in Common Drumcree poll deserves closer scrutiny over the small samples behind its party breakdowns.
Of its 1,019 respondents, the figures supplied show 162 DUP supporters, 156 Sinn Féin, 105 Alliance, 79 SDLP, 69 UUP and just 29 TUV. The Greens had 25, Others 21, People Before Profit four and Aontú three, alongside 366 non-voters.
Taking the DUP’s 162 respondents and 18% voting share as a proportional benchmark, Sinn Féin’s 30% would correspond to 270 respondents, the UUP’s 13% to 117 and the TUV’s 11% to 99. Their actual bases were considerably smaller. Alliance, by comparison, had 105 respondents against a benchmark of 81, while the SDLP’s 79 was close to its benchmark of 81.
That comparison does not establish how respondents were weighted, particularly without confirming whether the party categories record past votes or current intentions. It does, however, highlight why headline voting shares should not be mistaken for substantial underlying samples.
The clearest weakness concerns claims about individual parties’ voters. With only 29 TUV respondents, a handful of answers can materially change the findings. With four People Before Profit respondents and three Aontú respondents, firm conclusions are especially difficult to justify.
Weighting can increase a respondent’s influence. It cannot create additional independent voices. These limitations do not automatically invalidate the overall poll, but its party breakdowns deserve considerably more caution than confident headlines might suggest. – at Belfast, Northern Ireland
The Drumcree judgment has put unionist leaders’ credibility to the test. Unless their words are now matched by meaningful action, they will have shown all the fight of a wet lettuce. – at Belfast, Northern Ireland
🧵 1/15 Below is a list of frequently asked questions I’ve put together about what would happen if either the First Minister or deputy First Minister resigned, and the consequences for the Executive, Assembly, ministers and their staff. – at Belfast, Northern Ireland
14/15 Would resignation mean direct rule?
No. It starts the appointment clock, potentially leading to an election duty. It does not transfer devolved government to the Secretary of State. He also has a conditional discretionary election power after the first six weeks. – at Belfast, Northern Ireland
15/15 What difference would the election make?
The scheduled poll is 6 May 2027. A resignation on 27 October 2026 puts the full 24-week deadline in mid-April. Polling day does not automatically remove re-elected ministers. The 24/48-week limits and other statutory rules apply. – at Belfast, Northern Ireland