Sean Macaday (@MacadayWX) header
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Emmy-winning Meteorologist @ Sacramento Bee - @Univmiami 19 🙌 - Exploring/protecting 🌎 - Fan of deep dish and deep dives

Sacramento, CA
Joined February 2018
Photo by Sean Macaday (@MacadayWX)Photo by Sean Macaday (@MacadayWX)Photo by Sean Macaday (@MacadayWX)Photo by Sean Macaday (@MacadayWX)Photo by Sean Macaday (@MacadayWX)Photo by Sean Macaday (@MacadayWX)Photo by Sean Macaday (@MacadayWX)Photo by Sean Macaday (@MacadayWX)Photo by Sean Macaday (@MacadayWX)Photo by Sean Macaday (@MacadayWX)
Here we go. Mid-November is looking wet for California. With a Gulf of Alaska low set to linger for the next week, the pattern is primed for an atmospheric river the moment our stable airmass moves east. I am watching for one or two rain events between Nov 11-16. #cawx
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actually it’s goodbye
This isn't goodbye, it's a see you later
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Have you seen the Mammoth Mountain cameras recently? 🗻👀 ❄️ ⛷️ 🏂 'Tis the season to start checking various slopes around the state. Check out your favorites at cameras.alertcalifornia.org
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An extended outlook, but the atmosphere is primed for rain in mid-November. As temps cool into winter, expect to see these atmospheric rivers diving down further south into California. El Nino is in full effect and still picking up steam.
Atmospheric River Expected to Affect the West Coast states
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America’s newest national park is rock solid! Chiricahua is officially our 64th national park. Welcome to the "Wonderland of Rocks."
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The area burning today in San Clemente received over 1.60" of rain 5 days ago. So why is it burning? Answer: Highly invasive black mustard, a CA non-native. It dies each summer, leaving dry, highly flammable kindling that rainfall cannot revive. Remove and plant natives.
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#Rachel set from a landfall just south of the border, but I have a feeling the worst impacts are inland. Majove is pretty sparsely populated, but certianly some mountainous flooding risks even into Utah.
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Pretty incredible, tropical storm watch up for San Diego. Decent chance a real tropical storm warning gets issued soon. #Rachel is likely to make it ashore as a full fledged but transitioning tropical storm thanks the above average water temperature and its fast speed. Coastal flooding will be a big issue. #cawx
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Thanks to the blistering pace it will take on Saturday, Tropical Storm #Rachel may just stay tropical all the way towards the San Diego-Tijuana area. Flooding and errosion is likely across Socal and into the Mjoave Sunday, especially in rugged terrain and along the coast. #cawx
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An early October heat wave will hold steady across California and the western US into mid-October. Some blazing hot highs in the triple digits for SoCal, and much of the Central Valley will stick in the 90s without much of a breeze to help out. #cawx
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Sean Macaday retweeted
Posts have recently been circulating online claiming that it has "always been 100°F in October in Los Angeles." These claims are misleading. Historically, 100°F October days only occurred on 3-6 afternoons per decade. (1% - 2% of days) Lately, they've gotten much more common.
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Yet again, three tropical cyclones are spining out in the eastern Pacific Ocean, boosted by El Nino's extra warmth and favorable atmosphere. #Nolo and #Polo are both set to impact Hawaii and Baja California respectively, with Polo making a direct landfall early next week.
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Switching from TV to print has increased my respect for the care that goes into making a good headline. This is careless.
Climate scientists are warning that this year's El Niño could be one unlike we've ever seen before. Expected to be super-strong, the climate phenomenon is likely to fuel drought in some areas, flooding in others, and as many as 451,000 weather-related deaths. ktla.com/news/super-strong-e…
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Newly formed Tropical Storm #Nolo will be the third hurricane to come awfully close to a landfall in Hawaii this season. And while a direct landfall is not likely, it will again bring intense rains. Hurricane watch up for the Big Island.
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Replying to @californiapost
This storm is not coming to SoCal. Stop lying.
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Just bonkers. #Polo has exploded into a Category 5 hurricane from a measly tropical storm just 24 hours ago. One of the strongest bouts of rapid intensificstion ever seen in the Eastern Pacific. Planetary coastally-trapped Kelvin waves have provided extra heat for the storms boost.
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Matched against all recent storms, #Polo ties Milton from 2 years ago as the second most robust increase in wind speed, only falling short of Otis.
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Indirect impacts: Tropical Storm #Marie will drag tropical moisture and extra heat up across California over the coming days. Mid-90s possible for coastal SoCal, and 100+ degrees across the Central Valley Wed/Thu. #cawx
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The hype surrounding #Marie is too high, largely thanks to a few single runs of deterministic models. On the left, the average of Google's WeatherNext2 64 ensemble members. Not much rain for SoCal, but a few showers from monsoonal moisture in some scenarios. On the right, a single run of the GFS. At this moment in weather modeling, the GFS is both more accessible to the public AND largely inferior to WN2. Forecast for Marie will markedly improve today now that it has formed. #cawx
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More direct impacts from Marie are certianly possible, but no reason to see these as immenent at the moment. Forecast should improve further with recon missions this week.
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Sean Macaday retweeted
My hope was wrong this morning. Since the center of #MARIE has formed, I was hoping today's 12z suite would bring more clarity to the forecast track. It has not. It has just about as much discrepancy as ever. There is still very low forecast confidence with this thing.
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