trying to figure out what makes the macroeconomy tick, from the bottom up. Economics Professor at PUC-Rio
Rio de Janeiro
Joined August 2015
- Tweets1.2K
- Following892
- Followers1.2K
- Likes8.2K
Pinned Tweet
Inflation and output co-move across countries. Is that common shocks or propagation through trade? In new paper, we find the latter to be very important! We develop and estimate a framework with nominal rigidities + multilateral trade. (1/n) app.box.com/s/28x28o8uzrofjl…
Starting this month, I'm on leave from the @RichFedResearch Fed and joining @PUCRioEconomia. I'm returning to Rio to join a storied department. Looking forward to connecting my old and new worlds, and to seeing US friends and colleagues at conferences — or in Rio!
@cmatthes_econ and I will be there talking on Estimating the Missing Intercept!
Very excited about the NBER Monetary Economics Spring meeting in New York tomorrow!
Program and link for live stream here: nber.org/conferences/monetar…
2
391
If you are in Philly for the #ASSA2026 come this Monday to the session organized by the ISIR, organized by Sergio Salgado and Guangbin Hong!
3
255
Happy to also have a paper in this session, that will owe not little to precious work done by Mahdi.
I will also be in the audience. Looking forward to connect with friends who are coming for the ASSA!
Dear friends and colleagues,
I will be presenting at #ASSA2026 on January 3.
I would be honored if you could attend.
DM or email me if you'd like to chat.
Title: Solving Models of Economic Dynamics with Ridgeless Kernel Regressions
Session: aeaweb.org/conference/2026/p…
208
Our new paper on Estimating the Missing Intercept is out! @cmatthes_econ
How can we leverage existing results that use cross-sectional identification to estimate aggregate effects?
Felipe Schwartzman (@MacroInPieces), Naoya Nagasaka, and I address this problem in our new paper “Estimating the Missing Intercept”.
cm1518.github.io/files/MNS.p…
10
454
If you are in SF for the ASSA meetings, Come tomorrow at 10:15 PST for the ISIR session in heterogeneity and aggregate dynamics, organized by Andres Blanco and Sergio Salgado!
Happy to see this coming out in print!
Forthcoming in AEJ: Macroeconomics: "The Consumption Origins of Business Cycles: Lessons from Sectoral Dynamics" by Christian Matthes and Felipe Schwartzman. aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.12…
Long rates suggest long-run R* has risen, so we may not expect policy rates to go all the way back to pre-pandemic levels.
Will #interestrates remain elevated even as #monetarypolicy normalizes? A recent Economic Brief notes that several factors may have been permanently altered since the onset of the #COVID19 pandemic. bit.ly/4dXX0gY
3
303
Organizers of the Midwest Macro Meeting have long understood that the Midwest is a state of mind!
This Post is from an account that no longer exists. Learn more
2
26
1,481
Come hang out with us at @RichFedResearch CORE weeks and more! Applications until June 28
The Richmond Fed is accepting applications for the 2025 Center for Advancing Women in Economics Fellowship! If you are an early-career research economist w/ a PhD in Econ or a related field apply by June 28. Learn more:
bit.ly/3sCfJNj #WomenInEconomics
3
373
on menuy costs
"Despite the occasional outcry, the era of the single price is rapidly fading into the past. In many ways, it’s already gone," @jcbeam writes: theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv…
335
When inflation surged, the nightmare scenario had inflation feeding on itself as firms started basing their pricing decisions on overall inflation. We thus started tracking that at the Richmond Fed @RichFedResearch through our surveys. Seems like we dodged a bullet!
Some suggestion of a price-price spiral via @RichmondFed, though they don't call it that.
richmondfed.org/publications…
I actually like calling it price-price spiral, if only I had thought of it! In my mind I was thinking a lot in terms of learning/information, but what we find (specially in the soft-landing bit) is also consistent with some of @IvanWerning's latest.
1
220
@BernardoGmrs é tudo de bom
@carlos_ed_sg is a very earnest guy who I am sure would have loved to find robust evidence for the effects of monetary shocks on prices. I hope he writes this up in a paper.
I Recently spent many hours re-reading the more modern literature on impacts of monetary policy shocks. People do HFI, use SVARs or Local Projections, resort to narrative, and also the good old timing assumptions. I myself spent many hours re-estimating these models.
2
130
The #ASSA ISIR section this year has been organized by the @lcastillomart and Andrés Blanco! Come see it this Saturday at 8:00 AM!
Bob Solow’s (last?) interview, at 98 with Levitt earlier this year. Sharp, interesting and fun!
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
Quem nunca teve a oportunidade de ouvir o @SilvaDejanir explicar qualquer coisa não sabe o que está perdendo
📢Esse ano teremos a honra de receber o professor @SilvaDejanir (Purdue University) ministrando o minicurso “Macroeconomics and Risk Premia”.
⏰Não perca a oportunidade e faça a sua inscrição no link. sbe.org.br/encontro/45o-enco…
#45EBE #SBEconometria
