Magl Daron

Dont forget @sanctumso community bounty initiated by @0x_JaeThorn and @0xGreythorn ! They will close bounty time soon! Upload, Contribute, and give your proof of work now 🔥 #cloudman #cloud #sanctum

First off, #NFA and please DYOR. I'm blabbering on while recovering from #RSV infection. Here's the TLDR; CLOUD valuation would be between $0.10 USD to $2.40 USD FDV and fair value at $0.40 USD. You should read below to check why: Since we are getting close to TGE and, as part of my job to figure out if something's undervalued or not.. OTC and pre-market data has been a good indicator of market sentiment of starting TGE valuation at launch to figure out if a token you've received as airdrop (or others $ZRO, $W, $EIGEN), would be worth holding or not. (see examples from trading pairs on @hyperliquidx and @aevoxyz). I've been thinking on how to value @sanctumso's very close-to-launch token, $CLOUD... using the same metrics we find that data in pre-markets such as @WhalesMarket and @DriftProtocol, so we can pull info from there as $CLOUD has a market estimate for what it's TVL and project love-CLOUD governance token over $INF is worth. Sanctum TVL But before we do, let's appreciate how much @sanctumso TVL has grown over the past few months.. geez... can't believe we covered them when it was at $300m TVL. If you haven't read our report before, check it out here: teapaw.org/0xGreythorn/status/179… With that out of the way, let's take a look shall we? first up it's Drift Protocol Trading stat - CLOUD Open Interest - CLOUD $CLOUD is currently sitting at $0.33 USD per token at Drift. With this their estimated metrics are as below: At TGE (Float: 180m CLOUD|Total: 1B CLOUD) FDV($): $300m USD MCAP($): $59.4m USD now let's head over to WhalesMarket Current OTC Asks - CLOUD $CLOUD holders are willing to sell the token for as little as $0.37 USD to $0.5 USD (not shown in the sc but it's there). With this their estimated metrics are as below: At TGE (Float: 180m CLOUD|Total: 1B CLOUD) FDV($): $370m USD - $500m USD MCAP($): $66.6m USD - $90m USD With these two valuations, despite the small OI in pre-markets, this indicates a valuation of CLOUD between: $300m USD - $500m USD (FDV) This is to be expected.. @soleconomist did mention that the @MeteoraAG pool will be priced between: $0.001 USD - $0.5 USD per CLOUD (avg. $0.18/CLOUD for MAV long-term buyers) "Question is now, is that fairly priced compared to the market?" To put that valuation into perspective, here are the respective SOL LST friends that Sanctum will be comparatively close to: SOL LST (w/ avail gov. tokens) 1. Jito ( $JTO ): FDV: $2.4B USD | Mcap: $298M USD | TVL: $1.57B USD 2. Marinade ( $MNDE ): FDV: $108M USD | Mcap: $28.7M USD | TVL: $768M USD Quite a stark difference in terms of valuations and TVL. Though this would give our extreme ball-parks in line on the fair value of CLOUD. This could mean that the offering of each LST protocol is different - could potentially be a new niche narrative in Solana (pin this for future - other LST governance tokens may be worth something $vSol [@thevaultfinance ], $hubSol [@SolanaHubApp ] and others). That means, Cloud should be worth no more than: $0.10 USD/CLOUD based on @MarinadeFinance valuations at the lowest extreme, whilst at the highest at the moment with @jito at $2.40 USD/CLOUD! So the next question is... WHERE DOES CLOUD STAND? Recent LFG launches from the likes of $UPT and $ZEUS indicate an average number of $40m - $70m MCAP valuations for these launches (with high FDV). Due to the @JupiterExchange connection here with Sanctum, I believe their LFG valuation should be no lower than $40m MCAP, that's a price of $0.27 USD/CLOUD. ☁️ PUTTING IT TOGETHER Now that we have various ranges based on differing metrics, we can create a range for CLOUD Vals: Lowest: $0.10 USD ( $MNDE valuation ) 💩 Low: $0.27 USD ( $JUP LFG Lowest ) Mid: $0.33 USD ( $DRIFT current perp $) Mid-High: $0.38 USD ( $WHALES lowest ASK) 🤔 High: $0.50 USD (LFG upper bound & $WHALES high value ASK) Highest: $2.40 USD ( $JITO valuation) 🚀 Equipped with this information, now you are informed of what to expect in the upcoming TGE and launch (and potential inevitable CLOUD airdrop dump) - at which price points that you'd consider yourself as a long-term minded liquid investment in SOL ecosystem? WHERE IS THE SPECULATION Easily the reason why CLOUD is worth anything, is based on what it's community think of how much their governance is worth. With a high comparable of JTO, alot of community members (and hopefuls such as us) could extrapolate highly on the tokens they received on airdrops. The question is then thrown to as to whether CLOUD governance could: 1. Solana Ecosystem Significance: It's important that Sanctum continues to become a driving force to increase LST Adoption and growth of TVL in SOL. 2. Governance Token Value: CLOUD also needs to be valuable in the ecosystem. The team could create a weighting staked system that allows for governance token to be used as directing new seasons & community directives. 3. Maintain Liquidity & Minimise Drain: Sticking to a true ethos of fair launch, This will test CLOUD the most as CEX listings are intentionally not made. If all these three factors are improved upon and upheld, I can easily see CLOUD to be between: - HIGH ($0.5) - HIGHEST ($2.40) - But for the TGE, I'd be data driven dependant on how things will be pre and during launch. For now, that fair value would be at $0.40 USD on the assumption of a LFG launch valuation - which is also an in-between of a mid-range valuation between given premarket prices. So now, I leave you to decide dear reader.. ARE YOU LONG TERM ALIGNED? If you aren't, tell me why on the comments and your thoughts about CLOUD. ☁️ - end rant.