Manage2Damage

My statistics show 72% of people that see this will scroll past it because it’s not drama, rage bait, someone bashing someone, or a mechanical high win rate strategy post. So to filter out the people that don’t actually want to progress in their trading I’m going against every algo “pro tip” and intentionally making the intro to this tweet long where most will scroll past and skim. The 28% that remain will get the most value and can practice this technique. Ok…did most of the people scroll off by now? Kewl let’s get started. Here’s how I bake risk management into how I read live price and align live price with statistics using a bullish example: 1. Reverse engineer the move you want in the most distinct specific detail. Don’t just say “I want price to go up”. Actually forward think what that specific bullish move would look like within today’s price action 2. It’s 6am with a LOD at 1830 and we are above the midpoint of the first half of the daily candle. This is a classic bullish situation. So I reverse engineer HOW this bullish situation would present 3. It could either pullback to P12 mid or keep expanding to P12 high. These 2 scenarios become my “if then” I need to see in live price 4. Just like in chess I take both “if thens” and wargame what each scenario would do. 5a. If we pullback to P12 mid and lose it…I’m incorrect about further bullish movement…I now shift to what confirms further bearish movement or to sit and wait for more information. These key clues are so important to not let our ego think our analysis has to be right 5b. If we continue higher the next target is P12 high. If I am extremely bullish on the day this P12 high should break and price should keep pushing. If this could be the HOD forming we should chop / struggle to continue behind P12 high. I want you to pay attention to 5a and 5b. Notice what I did here. I was very specific and very detailed with how I can be wrong, right, and very right. This gives me the ability that when my trade setup happens I have 0 reason to hesitate. I just simply execute. Wargaming different scenarios and backwards planning HOW those scenarios will workout, provide trade setups, this is what makes me never marry a bias & build an environment that fuels bad trading habits. To some people they may think this is a lot just to take a single trade, to those people I say this….i would rather plan every angle so when I go to click the button I have ZERO absolutely ZERO bad trading habits being produced. A lot of people are trying to do what i mentioned above AS they are clicking the button which leads to hesitation, FOMO, missing trades, all because they are trying to do these steps in a matter of seconds / minutes. Every morning I take my time, I watch the market before my session, and then I execute when the time comes IF it aligns with what I prepared. Because this also keeps me flat and out of bad trading decisions. I hope this helps the small amount of you that stuck to the end on forward thinking & treating trading like chess….think in decision trees and then have the data / stats to grade which decisions are the highest probable and which ones are not worth the money to spend.

Opening price + time. That's how I read price 2-3 steps ahead. Here's the framework: A candle opens -> Price moves -> Then one of three things happens… 1. It takes HALF the candle's time just to get back to the open - No expansion coming. You're most likely in a doji. Expect chop. 2. Price puts real distance from the open in the first few minutes.
- You're in one of two places: the body of an expansive candle, or a wick being built. 
- Stay hyper aware of the wick.
 3.If time keeps passing and price holds that distance = you're in the body. Trade the body. Why does this matter? Because the golden ticket in trading isn't the signal. It's defining the environment and tailoring your risk to it. This is why every trading bot and take every signal system bleeds money. How I’m dynamic with my risk & the environment: -> Body of an expansive candle…normal targets. The opposing wick is my final target. Runners sized to it. -> Wick being built…larger targets. There's more room to run. → Doji / no follow-through: wider stops, tighter targets. These candles range and chop. They don't travel far in one direction. Hope this helps.