Algo and options trader. Be dumb, follow price. Fade macro. NFA.
USA
Joined May 2019
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Fed chair Walsh today: financial conditions have gotten tighter and will continue to tighten.
Q3 Earnings result reactions: an excuse to sell. Good results are flat. Slight misses are punished.
Cost of capital is higher. Liquidity is drying up.
No VIX crush post FOMC presser? Big tech earnings, midterm election, and Iran war escalation coming up next...
Is this algo strategy an overfitted POS? No
Previous backtest was short so I extended the test on the same long and short breakout strategy to 10 years. I kicked out SPY which was a just lower return version of QQQ and replaced with less correlated TSLA. Same algo with no setting changes are running on 3 markets.
On executing systems - think professionally managing clients’ money.
On building portfolio of systems - think leaving them for children.
Long/short hedge funds are having spasms and hurting each others' books. Crowded short positions (consumer stocks, TLT) are squeezed to cover. Long positions need to be liquited to match smaller short book. Last Friday and yesterday looked like rotation but was forced unwind?
AI stocks are selling off because too much demand is hitting supply bottlenecks. Everyone is lining up to raise more capital for even more capex spend, crowding out available capital. All sounds bullish but AI semi stocks are tanking. Make it make sense!
This must be causing unusual drawdowns for mean reversion algorithms strategies!
This is crazy‼️
The $SPX is ~1% off its highs.
Goldman's High Beta Momentum basket is -41%.
We’ve never seen anything like this.
Built-in TradingView AI copolit is a real POS. @tradingview Let me use Claude inside TV instead, please!
Hot CPI followed by even hotter PPI. The markets are going opposite of expected. Yields are falling, especially the long end. Probablity of fed funds rate hold this month increased. Equities rallying off the lows... Market reaction is unpredictable.
I guess the way the market is heading into the close, insiders already know tomorrow's CPI report will be benign.
