Father, curmudgeon, full back in a beer league, Prof of Political Economy at @munkschool at U of Toronto. Here in private capacity.

Toronto
Joined October 2009
Humanities colleagues, in the year of the Lord 2026
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It’s difficult to maintain any illusion when watching those mass produced series on Prime and Amazon as a Canadian… “that’s at the aquarium” (The Expanse) “that’s on our UofT campus” (every second crappy show) “No that’s not S.F. that’s Gastown” etc
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In this era of artificial intelligence, it is becoming urgent to distinguish human art from what machines produce. There is an ontological difference, even before an aesthetic one, between art and what a machine can generate through statistical calculation based on millions of images created by others. Algorithms lack the spark of humanity. For this reason, the Church wishes to renew an alliance with artists and cultural institutions to safeguard our humanity.
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Reviewers, if you don't understand the formal model, think twice before you say "I feel it could be moved to the appendix" unless you also recommend that statistical tables be moved there. Everything can be expressed in words, even string theory... just with a lot less precision.
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Skilled trades are frequently thought of as a route out of poverty. But trades workers tell a different story. @JesseTayRiver, a contractor who works in home remodeling, explains:
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If the productivity enhancing effects of AI are hard to pin down, remember Co-Pilot is also “AI.”
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Can we go back to having politicians like him?
Jean Chrétien: "It looks like they don't know what to do. When your big thing is to change the name of a lake, it's because you're running out of arguments. It is a very weak gesture, to be cheap and nasty. Lake Ontario is not suffering. It's a lake."
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An underappreciated fact about the PISA shock: Since the COVID school closures, parents across the western world who care about education have opted out of the public system, but private schools aren’t sampled representatively in most countries.
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Er hätte seine Politik nur besser erklären müssen. ☝️
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How many heads of government have you heard acknowledge “selection effects” of a policy pilot study?
A few days ago, I shared the World Bank’s summary of the results of the PISA for Schools assessment conducted in 171 Salvadoran public schools participating in our education pilot. Since then, I have seen some legitimate questions about what these results mean, as well as some claims about what they supposedly don’t mean. So let’s be very precise. First, what we NEVER claimed: 1. We never claimed these results represent the national average. They don’t. This was not the national PISA assessment. It was PISA for Schools, conducted specifically in the 171 public schools participating in our pilot program. That is precisely why my original post said: “These are the results of our pilot program, which includes AI tutors and has been running in 171 public schools for just over a year.” A pilot is, by definition, not the entire country. 2. We never claimed that these 171 schools were a statistically representative sample of every school in El Salvador. They weren’t selected randomly from all Salvadoran schools. They were selected to participate in the pilot because they were schools where the program could initially be implemented more easily: they had certain basic infrastructure and connectivity requirements, and school communities capable and willing to implement a new educational model. That creates a selection effect, and it should be acknowledged. But there is an important distinction here. These schools were NOT selected because their students had exceptional academic results. They were not our “best schools.” Not even close. We didn’t search the country for the highest-performing schools or students and then test them. They are normal Salvadoran public schools, urban and rural, in different parts of the country, serving ordinary Salvadoran families. And the characteristics that made implementation easier: connectivity, infrastructure, trained teachers and willingness to adopt the program, are also things that can be replicated in other schools. They are not innate characteristics of the students. We can install connectivity. We can improve infrastructure. We can train teachers. We can provide the same technology. We can deploy the same educational tools. In fact, that is exactly what we are doing. 3. These results also do NOT prove that AI tutors, by themselves, caused the improvement, although we believe they are a MAJOR part of these results. Our pilot is broader than that. It includes changes in teaching, support for teachers and principals, educational materials, monitoring and evaluation, technology, and AI tools, among other interventions. Our AI tutors and learning platforms are being developed with @grok, @Kira_Learning, and support from I Hate Flying Bugs. And the broader transformation of our education system is being supported by the @WorldBankGroup, @AgendaCAF, and @el_BID. All of these interventions can also affect student motivation and engagement. But that distinction matters: if students become more motivated BECAUSE of the program, that is not necessarily a flaw in the program or an explanation that somehow invalidates the results. It may be one of the ways the program works. The same applies to teachers. For example, the implementation of the AI tutors, including the requirement for teachers to log in and out of the system, coincided with teacher attendance in these schools increasing from 76% to 97%. If the program causes teachers to attend school more consistently, and that in turn helps students learn more, that is not an advantage that disappears when we scale the program. It is potentially part of the intervention itself. Of course, to scientifically isolate the causal effect of AI tutors, teacher attendance, student motivation, technology, training, or any other individual component would require a different experimental design. Now, what DO these results tell us? 1. They tell us that 1,198 students in 171 ordinary Salvadoran public schools… 🧵1/2👇🏼
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Mark Manger retweeted
Since many folks have already asked me about the shocking recent state election victory of the far right in Germany, here is a brief Labor Day FAQ with links. Isn't it really about economic deprivation or inequality? No lol. People vote for anti-immigration parties because they don't like immigration. Anti-immigration parties get more votes particularly when immigration is a nationally salient issue, as it is now: (goodauthority.org/news/good-…). Also see research by @JamesRDennison and @epkaufm. OK, but why does immigration matter so much now, and in one of the Saxonies of all places, where there are relatively few immigrants? Voters care about what they think immigration is doing to Germany as a whole. Their own local community or paycheck is only part of the picture. See more on sociotropic voting and immigration here: (goodauthority.org/news/good-…, goodauthority.org/news/can-t…). OK, but I thought the immigration numbers were going down—why doesn't salience go down too? Voters care about foreigners already living in the country and how immigration is managed. Germany, for instance, has hundreds of thousands of people legally required to leave who remain in the country, often because of administrative reasons—and voters don't like that. Public concerns are also thermostatic and need not track this year's flows. I discussed this in the US context here: (goodauthority.org/news/why-a…). So what should mainstream parties do to win voters back? As I argued after the AfD's breakthrough in Germany's 2025 election, they need to deliver visible improvements in immigration policy. People can support freer immigration (and not vote for anti-immigration parties) when they can see that it benefits their country, without needing experts to tell them so: (goodauthority.org/news/germa…). But doesn't accommodating the far right always hurt mainstream parties since voters go for the real thing? It depends, and the evidence is mixed. As @hannohilbig explains, a tougher immigration position can attract some voters but lose others. Voters also often (rightly!) don't find mainstream parties' new anti-immigration stances credible: (popularbydesign.org/p/why-do…). OK, but immigration is actually good after all—so why are all those people upset about it? Freer mobility is good on net, but Germany has adopted many costly immigration policies whose downsides have often been downplayed in mainstream debate. Turning qualified research findings into reassuring political messages makes sensible immigration policy harder: (faz.net/aktuell/karriere-hoc…). Also see our primer with @KelseyTuoc on why immigration in Germany and Western Europe is so much worse than in the US: (theargumentmag.com/p/why-ame…). I make the full argument behind these answers in my last book, In Our Interest. For a shorter read, check out The Uncomfortable Truths About Immigration here: (popularbydesign.org/p/the-un…).
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it really does break my balls that mainstream political parties don't want to address the elephant in the room (for more than 10 years now) and as a result people start voting for the only parties promising to address said elephant, but which are completely retarded in every other way
From a motivational viewpoint, this is Germany‘s Brexit moment: a defiant middle finger to an establishment that failed to grasp that what it is has long branded as populist has become popular. Yet the motives of these insurgents are far more hostile than those of the Faragists. They rage not only against Germany‘s elites or the EU but against Germany’s very place in the West.
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The highly promising results from El Salvador’s first PISA for Schools assessment show what education reform can achieve when student learning is placed at the center—and change reaches the classroom. What is at stake is more than a score. It is a generation’s future and its prospects in the labor market. These preliminary findings, drawn from a group of schools, point to a path worth pursuing. The World Bank Group is proud to support El Salvador’s efforts to strengthen education and expand opportunities for generations to come. More on the assessment: bit.ly/4x7q1zQ
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Why do economists still publish papers with new econometric methods but don't provide any code to implement it? Wouldn't you get more citations if you did?
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Beaucoup s'étonnent que des centaines de scientifiques défendent Nathan Cofnas. Leur argument principal est que la "théorie raciale » de Cofnas concernant l'intelligence ne serait pas scientifique. Les scientifiques défendant Cofnas seraient donc nécessairement des réactionnaires pseudoscientifiques... Cofnas est un philosophe, avec une spécialisation en philosophie de la biologie et en éthique. Il travaille au Department of Philosophy and Moral Sciences de l'Ugent. Il n'est pas un scientifique. Si on exige que le travail des philosophes respecte les critères de scientificité, il ne va pas en rester beaucoup dans les universités... En tant que biologiste, je ne suis pas d'accord avec la thèse de Cofnas. Je vais essayer de formuler ça simplement. Les différences individuelles de performance aux tests cognitifs présentent une composante génétique importante. C'est un fait bien établi, même si cela en dérange certains. L'héritabilité de l'intelligence est également documentée. Mais une forte héritabilité au sein d'une population ne permet pas, à elle seule, d'expliquer les différences moyennes éventuellement observées entre populations. Le véritable problème de la thèse de Cofnas est de parler de « races » qu'on pourrait hiérarchiser en termes d'intelligence. Il n'existe pas, chez l'être humain, de races biologiques discrètes et génétiquement homogènes correspondant aux catégories raciales ordinaires. On peut comparer des groupes génétiquement hétérogènes et constater que certains réussissent, en moyenne, moins bien aux tests de QI. Mais ça ne veut pas dire qu'il y a des races moins intelligentes que d'autres. Certains disent que la thèse de Cofnas ne doit plus être débattue dans les universités parce qu'elle serait déjà réfutée depuis des décennies. Je pense que c'est une erreur. La génétique humaine a progressé de manière considérable depuis la démocratisation du séquençage du génome humain. Il me semble donc intéressant de confronter, au sein de l'université, la thèse philosophique de Cofnas avec les données scientifiques actuellement disponibles. Ne pas faire cet exercice serait une grave erreur. Car cela laisserait penser que la thèse de Cofnas est rejetée uniquement pour des raisons morales. Cela reviendrait à lui donner de la crédibilité. Si une thèse est fausse, la meilleure manière de le montrer est de l'examiner sérieusement et de confronter ses arguments aux données disponibles, pas d'empêcher qu'elle soit discutée. Indépendamment de cette question de la véracité de la thèse de Cofnas, la principale raison pour laquelle il faut défendre Cofnas tient aux raisons invoquées par l'UGent pour le licencier. Cofnas ne travaille pas à l'UGent sur sa "théorie raciale". Il fait un postdoc sur un autre projet philosophique. Il a été engagé pour travailler sur ce projet par l'UGent en toute connaissance de cause concernant sa "théorie raciale". Au vu du timing, il est difficile de ne pas mettre sa situation actuelle à l'UGent en relation avec sa dénonciation du caractère frauduleux du travail de Jason Arday. Il est triste qu'Arday se soit donné la mort. Mais Cofnas n'est pas responsable de cela. Arday avait déjà été mis en cause à plusieurs reprises des années auparavant. Si Cambridge avait enquêté sérieusement sur ces accusations, Cofnas n'aurait pas eu à intervenir. La responsabilité de cette situation ne peut donc certainement pas être imputée à Cofnas. Il serait inacceptable qu'un philosophe soit écarté d'une université au motif que ses travaux ou ses opinions mettent certains collègues et étudiants mal à l'aise. Il serat également inacceptable qu'un académique soit écarté pour avoir critiqué le travail d'un autre académique. Si on adopte ces normes, c'en est fini de la liberté académique et de la critique argumentée dans les universités.
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And this, compatriots, is why Eastern Europeans have historically been the perfect immigrants for Canada
North American climate zones compared with their Eurasian equivalents
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Mark Manger retweeted
Football won
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Teenager review of The Odyssey: Terrible armour. Assassin’s Creed is way more realistic and that’s a video game. Polished steel, and then an actor tells you “we’re in the Bronze Age.” Overused actors. OK if you can forget that it’s supposed to be The Odyssey. 6/10.
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