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#ThunderUp
๐NBA Prop #1
1u: Chet Holmgren o13.5 pts (-128)
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Earning around 30 projected minutes tonight provides a solid foundation, given that he surpassed this 13.5 scoring mark in 8 out of 12 prior appearances when logging at least 28 minutes.
Solidifying his offensive baseline and capitalizing on interior whistles, heโs averaged 3.4 makes out of 4.0 free-throw attempts across his past 10 matchups, giving him a dependable floor for high-efficiency points.
Accumulating 12 points during 28 minutes of playing time, he narrowly missed the target in his most recent contest, leaving him primed for a slight uptick in usage to push him back into double-digit production.
Reviewing his last five games yields heโs scored 12, 14, 4, 10, and 16 pointsโdemonstrating multiple instances of eclipsing tonight's total despite recent variations.
Holmgren historically thrives in this specific matchup, averaging 17.3 points per game across 7 career games against the LA Clippers, giving him a full 3.8-point cushion over tonight's 13.5 betting line.
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Los Angeles Clippers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Chet Holmgren Over 13.5 Points ๐ข
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Barcelona vs Real Madrid
Barรงa boasting 39 goals in just 9 league games, but dealing with a stretched defense heading into this one...
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Caleb Wilson Over 17.5 Points โ
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Washington Wizards @ Chicago Bulls
Caleb Wilson Over 17.5 Points ๐ข
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MathODDS retweeted
๐ALEXPROPS NFL๐
Tetairoa McMillan โOโ 69.5 Rec YDs
โ๏ธAP Proj. 81.02
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โ๏ธ MathODDS
Young is currently playing the best football of his career, leading a Panthers squad that steps onto the field as deserving favorites.
Building on a rookie campaign where he posted 85 and 73 yards against Tampa Bay, the WR has already surpassed this mark in four out of five games this season.
Matching up against this secondary, Young and his primary target are well-positioned to replicate the kind of performance we saw last Sunday.
Todd Bowles persists in running a conservative soft shell defensive scheme, particularly when holding a lead, which consistently leaves them vulnerable to precise quarterbacks.
Even though the Buccaneers are enduring a lost season, this defensive vulnerability allows accurate passers to steadily pick them apart.
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J.J. McCarthy o200.5 Pass Yards / w @KashyLocks
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T. Mcmillan 70+ Rec Yards / w @AlexpropsHQ
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
T. Mcmillan 70+ Rec Yards ๐ข
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๐ NFL Sunday Play (10/25)
Jaylen Warren o24.5 Receiving Yards
#HereWeGo
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The Steelers operate a heavily pass-oriented scheme, ranking 2nd overall in passing play percentage (66.2%) and averaging 39.2 pass attempts per contest, which scales up to 43.0 attempts per game when playing away from home.
The Saints defense struggles significantly, ranking among the league's worst by allowing 377.7 total yards and 22.3 first downs per game, alongside vulnerable home and recent pass-defense metrics yielding 7.9 and 8.3 yards per pass attempt.
Warren has cleared his baseline efficiently across recent stretches, averaging 49.3 receiving yards over his last 3 appearancesโincluding a 28-yard output against Tampa Bayโand posting a seasonal high of 87 yards against Indianapolis.
Heโs consistently outperformed this threshold all season long, maintaining an average of 43.0 receiving yards per game across 6 appearances while never dipping below 27 yards in any contest.
He brings a spotless recent track record into this matchup, having hit the over in each of his last 6 overall outings, all 3 of his previous road games, and 4 of his past 5 contests played without Ben Skowronek.
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Pittsburgh #Steelers @ New Orleans #Saints
J. Warren Over 24.5 Rec Yards ๐ข
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New York #Giants @ Houston #Texans
J.J. McCarthy Over 200.5 Pass Yards ๐ข
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NFL Week 7 Play #2๐
Jj MCcarthy โOโ 200.5 Pass Yards
#BigBlue
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โขJJ McCarthy gets his first start for the Giants after showing what he can do in limited action last week. After Jameis Winston got benched, JJ came in during the 4th quarter and threw for 243 passing yards in ONE quarter, nearly leading the team to a comeback win.
โขNow he gets a full game to work with, and the matchup is favorable. The Texansโ defense hasnโt been living up to expectations this season, allowing the 6th-most passing yards in the league.
โขThe coaching staff has also spoken positively about JJ picking up the playbook, which is a good sign heading into his first start. If he can carry over the momentum from last week, the opportunity is there for him to clear 200.5 passing yards.
โข200.5 is a very reachable number if JJ gets consistent passing volume across four quarters. After what he showed in just one quarter last week, Iโm backing him to get it done.
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#SeeRed
๐NBA Prop #1
1u: Caleb Wilson o17.5 pts (-105)
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Heโs set to log 32 minutes and has 29% usage rate so far this season positions him for plenty of scoring chances against Washington.
Looking at volume when given a proper runway, he's surpassed this mark in 2 out of 3 appearances where he logged 30 or more minutes. Entering tonight's matchup, his latest performance shows he can easily clear the line after playing a full 33 minutes and putting up 21 points.
Although recent game logs feature lower totals of 16, 16, 10, and 17 points, those figures were affected by limited preseason action.
I know the sample is small, but looking at hit shot chart, 28% of his points are scored from above-the-break three-pointer where the Wizards rank 20th and another 35% in the restricted area whereas they rank 29th
Additionally, Washington ranks 17th or worst at guarding how he scores 90% of his points thus far.
Backing him against the Wizards tonight makes sense because his projected playing time and offensive involvement establish a solid scoring floor.
๐ฌ| @PropsEdge
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Washington Wizards @ Chicago Bulls
Caleb Wilson Over 17.5 Points ๐ข
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