Matt Lasky (situationally aware) (@MattLasky) header
Matt Lasky (situationally aware) (@MattLasky) profile picture

CRE Guy // $2.5B+ of transactions in healthcare & retail as a principal or advisor | side project - https://teapaw.org/t.co/IIJrqDMcvW

Columbus
Joined April 2009
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Given the amount of newer followers, a thread on who I am: I have 2 role's: 1) Partner in CRE private equity w/ a focus on opportunistic-core plus medical office buildings & neighborhood retail. 2) co-lead an advisory team that does real estate strategy work nationwide
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Literally millions of dollars in value in this post. I do something similar across 3 pursuits: -our principal investing business -our tenant rep advisory business (focus on healthcare) -health, wellness, longevity, and performance enhancement Have also used a similar method layering in books and blog posts to develop consultants/thought partners for building & growing whatever we're focused on.
How I got Claude to listen to 500 podcasts for my company, and how you can build your own A problem you are working on today has already been solved The person who solved it is explaining how they did it 34 minutes into a podcast you don't have time to listen to I run a Texas apartment company. Every morning, Claude reads any newly published episode from about 500 shows we track. In one week in October, that was about 365 episodes, start to finish. The first read flagged 197 short passages for deeper analysis. The second read cut that to 12 worth acting on. Any small business owner or investor can build their customized version of this. What comes back for me The marketing VP at a large apartment operator was on an industry show talking about her ad vendor. The vendor was celebrating a 50-70% jump in phone leads. Her team checked the calls against their CRM. About 54 of every 100 were spam, vendors, and bankers. Claude knew we were building a cost-per-lease report by channel, counting calls, with nothing to screen out junk. A channel that looks cheap (per inquiry) might just be a channel full of spam. So about 90 seconds of her conversation came to us written up: who said it, why she's credible, where it sits in the episode, why it applies to our report, who owns it and what to check. Nobody had to listen to anything. Same week, our own notes said a tax credit we've used was still live. A podcast guest's comment about a different tax break is how we caught it. A cost segregation CEO said the 179D energy deduction is closed to buildings that start construction after June 30, 2026. He sells that work, so we believed him, then checked the IRS guidance anyway. 45L, the credit we've actually used, has the same cutoff. And two operators were telling owners on investor podcasts to judge a property manager by one document: the before-and-after T12 from a recent takeover. We manage apartments for other owners. We can now prep for that question or even highlight our performance proactively based on that metric. Some of these confirm what we're seeing. Some teach us something new. Some warn us long before we'd have found it ourselves. The first time I shared the "Podcast Brief" with our executives, one of them forwarded an item to our trade association's general counsel because it was so relevant. How to build one 1. Write down what you care about, and go wider than feels right. Mine is apartment management, construction, fundraising, opportunity zones, wealth management, local politics, zoning, liquidity events and interesting people. 2. Build the show list. Podscan tracks about 600,000 active podcasts and carries the transcripts. I started with the 117 shows I already followed. Claude found similar shows and searched transcripts across every line of our business, and got to about 7,000 candidates. It pulled recent episodes and guests on about 1,100 of them and rejected two-thirds. With the shows I started with, we ended up with about 500. Judge on the guests and the content, not the audience size. 3. Write the context document. This is the whole trick. Ours says who we are, what we believe, what we're working on, what we've already done and who owns what. It's fed by my daily work in Claude and weekly updates from our executives, so it moves when we move. If we're chasing a niche problem this month, the agents hunt for it across all 500 shows. 4. Read everything. Every new episode, every morning, in full. No keyword filters. The best material is a passing remark in the middle of an episode about something else. Sonnet does the first read. Opus goes deep on what gets flagged. 5. Check the work. The second read goes back to the full transcript, tests each claim against our own notes and traces anything big to a primary source. It keeps what the speaker said separate from what we concluded. 6. Correct it. When our team tells it something it got wrong about how we operate, that goes into the context document right away. What went wrong My review of the first run: "Surfaced some really good stuff but didn't go deep enough to be useful." We rebuilt it to pull the actual passages, with timestamps, names and numbers. It got facts wrong that were sitting in our own notes. It pinned a Houston default on the wrong sponsor. Machine transcripts make their own mistakes too. One had the buyer and seller reversed. In one big run, the second read caught 79 errors from the first. The agents also tried to rank shows after two episodes and called some of them noise. I stopped that. A national construction show usually has nothing for us. Then an episode three weeks later has a two minute blurb that is solid gold. Your context document holds your deals, your people and your plans. Bottom line This works for any industry. If you own a plumbing company or a dental group, or you're just managing your own money, somebody is talking about your problem on a podcast right now. Everyone's looking for something new and actually useful to do with AI. This has been one of mine. The agents are only as good as what they know about you. So start with one page about your business. The podcasts are just the input. This is an AI post from a guy who builds apartments.
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I’m a partner in a CRE shop with ~$1B AUM & I tell most people not to allocate to private CRE most of the time. Cullen Roche & Adam Katz have the right frame: asset-liability matching. Pensions/insurers live by it, individuals mostly ignore it. The question isn’t “what’s the best investment,” it’s “when do I need this money and what’s actually built for that horizon.” Private CRE fund is 7-10 year money. Capital calls on sponsors schedule, distributions when they say, no exit button. It’s the longest duration, least liquid thing most people will ever own. Any realistic chance you need it sooner and there are problems. The IRR on the deck is irrelevant. Even when it IS 10 year money, two more gates: Does the deal work on its own terms? Going-in yield vs cost of debt w/ room for things to break. Well above replacement cost or an exit cap I don’t believe = pass. Does it beat everything else that belongs in the opportunity set? Public equities, PE, private credit, your own business? Some years a plain index fund wins, nobody’s collecting carry on it, and it's liquid. Anyone telling you it’s always a good time to allocate to CRE is selling allocation, not returns. Duration first -> Then vintage -> Then the opportunity set. In that order.
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This is a wild stat
Anthropic will make ~1,000 employees worth +$100m at $2 trillion market cap. There's ~11,000 Americans with $100m in investable assets. So something like 1 in 12 Americans with $100m (liquid) will be from Anthropic. If you add in Openai, maybe 1 in 7.
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The low carb zealots cannot comprehend this breakfast. Gym performance and pump all but guaranteed to be awesome later.
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Matt Lasky (situationally aware) retweeted
FIRE JASON BECK!!!!!
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According to this flight I’m on we’re still very early in the GLP trend. Huge TAM, no pun intended?
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That is quite an assortment of goodies
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Cycle of life
Higher rates = less housing supply = higher rents = more inflationary pressure.
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These are best in class (project level) returns and at scale. Actual IRR higher as the whole purchase was accrued over time and not all $70M spent day 1, ignores cashflow and assumes no financing.
Its funny to see @mrkorangy talk about a guy in Miami who turned $70M into a billion over 17 years as impressive. A $70M head start is wild and honestly not an impressive IRR for a GP (~17%). I started Snowball with 200k and a supportive wife. I am a failure at 17%, but rich.
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Anyone know where I can get that 4.2% treasury yield to price off of today?
Commercial real estate runs in cycles but looks at those cap rates and yields
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Monitoring the situation today
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Twice in the last 3 years we've exited STNL buildings via an owner user sale for greater than our pro-forma'd investment sale. Basis matters.
Guy sells building leased to United Healthcare and an 8K vacancy for $9M Landlord knows tenant is leaving but doesn’t disclose Buyer acquires property and moves in to vacancy. 1 month later United says they want to leave New owner negotiated $4M buyout so basis is $5M Sells for $12M within a year netting $7M
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This post is more profound than a lot will realize
Few realize how profoundly IRR is impacted even by an minimal cash out, if its early enoug
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I have great natural light in my office and have turned on the LEDs once ever I think, for a presentation to someone on the west coast at night. The hormone optimization, peps, and nootropics are all at office too 🤣
Soon executives will want to put their key employees on theraputic hormones, brain peptides, nootropics, and circadian lighting so they perform at peak It’s already starting
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If it’s areas people want to live in that are unaffordable, doesn’t that mean there is more than sufficient demand already, thus driving the prices to unaffordable?
I’m not sure we actually have a housing crisis as it’s commonly defined. (Overall lack of homes) I think we have an affordable housing crisis in areas people actually want to live.
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Matt Lasky (situationally aware) retweeted
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Pretty sure he got me with a cold email, could have been a call.. both are tough to do. We’ve now done well in excess of $1m in fees together
Few are willing to cold call. But those that do, control their destiny. I've made over 75,000 cold calls and trained 30+ agents (multiple who have become million $ agents) on how to make them. Here are 7 tips that I promise will make you a better cold caller.
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This is facts. So one sided too as the typical remedy is a technical default as if that does anyone any good near closing a sale. Real horrid example of “by attorneys for attorneys” with limited business implications if the rest of the DD and purchase agreements are done right
The Estoppel Certificate madness needs to stop. Ok, this one is perhaps a bit under-the-hood, but if you want to dive into a boring topic that actually has lots of implications within the industry, here goes. It has a boring and intimidating name, but an Estoppel Certificate is basically just a document that says: "Hey so I am the tenant and the lease I signed a while back is still valid, I am current on rent, there's no side agreements with the landlord, and nothing crazy's going on that you should be aware of." Why are tenants asked to sign this? If someone is buying a property, they want to be sure that the leases they are inheriting are still valid, and that there are no agreements between the seller and tenant that were not presented to them. Same goes with a lender -- both buyers and lenders are putting together terms based upon the leases, so they want to be sure there is nothing fishy going on. Fair enough. Except, tons of unintended consequences have popped up. Many lenders and buyers WILL NOT lend/buy without having most or all tenants sign them. They can and do literally hold up deals all the time. Tenants have become aware of how much leverage this gives them -- deals often hang in the balance until they sign. Yes, it is standard for leases to require tenants to sign them. But there is no guarantee they actually will... So, many tenants play games. There is a "hey write whatever" section in many Estoppels - so I have seen tenants make things up, literally. Things like: "The owner promised me a 10-year extension at the same rent I'm paying now." A buyer seeing this is going to pretty much freak out, even though it could be completely made up. Have had this happen on several occasions. The tenants can literally write whatever they want. They are not binding, but they create lots of sudden uncertainty, legal implications, and risk. Tenants can write that the landlord promised them a new roof, or free rent, or that they are owed $40,000... Does not mean it's valid, of course. Tenants are using the Estoppel process for leverage. Oh, you need that signed? I want 2 months of free rent. Yes, some nationals do it too. Have seen nationals ask for money (even though the lease does not provide for it). I have seen nationals ask for copies of rent rolls so they can see what other tenants are paying. Again, not in the lease, but they know they have a moment of leverage. How do I handle it? If a tenant will not sign it or is bringing up something they are owed, I first take it with a grain of salt and ask the landlord's side what is happening. There is usually a back story. When a tenant once invented having additional options, I asked them to send me documentation. When they didn't have it, I reminded them that making up business terms randomly may have legal implications. I then assess the risk level for me, and make a call. If they are saying there was an agreement -- I ask for a copy. Have I had a tenant send me a fraudulent lease amendment that they themselves wrote? Yes I have. I also have the landlord sign an estoppel, where they are guaranteeing there actually are no side agreements etc. Bottom line, leases should be much more strict about Estoppels. Refusing to sign one just because you want something in return should be an automatic default with heavy penalties. Delaying a deal simply because you have the power to do so should not be a thing, and there should be real legal consequences. All we are doing as landlords is asking you to verify that your lease is still valid. If it is not, then yes no problem -- share the info in good faith, of course. But that Estoppel is usually just a page, and takes minutes to review and docusign. This circus needs to end.
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I put this right next to I’m not helping you move either
I love you bro but we’re both in our 30s I’m not splitting a hotel bed with you to save $100, im getting my own room
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