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Joined February 2025
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Open source makes sense for enterprises as explained by the CEO of $PANW. The irony of this race is that hyperscalers maintain financial incentive relationships with OpenAI and Anthropic. If you pause to consider this, it sounds negative—and it is, given that their future performance and commitments are tightly bound to the equity market. How this ultimately resolves remains entirely uncertain.
$GOOG $AMZN $MSFT
It’s been 65 years since this recording. You’ve got to respect and admire the mind of Claude Shannon. I wonder what he would say today.
Everyone knows Dan Ives' bullish takes on AI. While being bullish is fine, when he's asked about OpenAI accounting for roughly 70% of $MSFT's AI revenue as a customer concentration risk, and he brushes off the question, that's not someone I'd put my money with — even though he has a track record on tech names he got correct, that's past information.
Stumbled across a Best Buy receipt in my Gmail from Jan 30, 2025 — 16GB RAM I bought for my laptop. Out of curiosity, checked what it costs today.
Up 440%.
Fully aware of the rise in memory prices but seeing it on my own receipt is insane.
$MU
Based on today's print from Uber, what I came across regarding the lower revenue growth in Mobility was the UK VAT change.
The UK government implemented a major private-hire VAT change on January 2, 2026, ending the use of the Tour Operators' Margin Scheme (TOMS) for ride-hailing apps — forcing Uber to recognize VAT on the full fare in London instead of just its commission. That hit started Q1 2026 and is still showing up today in Q2 2026 — this isn't a one-quarter blip, it's a structural shift.
It accounts for ~400bps of the ~500bps YoY decline in Mobility's take rate:
Q4 2025: 30.6%
Q1 2026: 25.8%
Q2 2026: 25.4%
What was odd at first: Gross Bookings YoY was fine (24.6% → 22.0%), no slowdown in demand at all. Revenue growth just looked weak because of the take rate compression, not the business itself.
Still confident in Dara and the AV roadmap ahead.
$UBER
A flashback to January of 2025 $NVDA fell -16.9% when DeepSeek released their technical report.
More and more announcements revealing the reality of this A.I. race to the finish line are going to trigger panic selling, so this year's headlines come as no surprise, and they'll keep coming.
The Databricks CEO shares a realistic take on the AI industry's current state — and honestly, the more reality CEOs speak, the more it'll spook the market, since this overly hyped technology's biggest achievement so far is spreading buzzwords all the way to your next-door neighbor.
My take: as more negative anecdotes pile up, they'll slowly hurt the very people hyping it up.
"However, we’d much prefer that Meta develop core AI products, leverage them over its base of ~4B users, & require massive compute for its own inference rather than selling access to its infrastructure."
100% agree with this take from JPM on $META's plans to monetize its compute.
I'm guessing you caught the headline: Uber, Waymo end robotaxi partnership in Phoenix.
It might look bearish for Uber at first glance, but I'd push back on taking that headline at face value, like the whole relationship is done. A few rational points on why this isn't actually a big deal:
1. Phoenix was the first pilot market with Waymo, intentionally limited from the start, just over a dozen vehicles. Uber itself described it that way, which suggests this was always scoped to end, not a partnership unraveling under pressure.
2. Austin and Atlanta remain fully active, riders can still book a Waymo through the Uber app in both markets.
3. Uber understands this is a competitive game and already runs multiple AV partnerships beyond Waymo. They're reportedly bringing in a new AV partner for Phoenix itself, so this reads less like losing ground and more like Uber's standard playbook of not relying on any single AV provider exclusively.
Now, something genuinely worth noting: Waymo recalled nearly 3,900 robotaxis over risk of entering closed construction zones. I'm not framing that as a negative against the company, it's just the reality that the technology isn't 100% mature yet, and we're still early in this industry's development. Recalls like this are part of the process, not necessarily a red flag on their own.
$UBER
A year ago, I argued that Apple had no reason throwing billions of dollars at capex to compete in the commoditizing LLM race.
The market commentators were busy 'capex shaming' any company that wasn't burning cash on AI infrastructure—but as @AswathDamodaran puts it, Apple is simply staying in its lane.
One year later, the stock tells the story: the market isn't punishing them for it.
$AAPL
March 2026, Jensen Huang on tokens for engineers:
"That $500,000 engineer at the end of the year, I'm going to ask them how much did you spend in tokens? If that person said $5,000, I will go ape something else."
"If that $500,000 engineer did not consume at least $250,000 worth of tokens, I am going to be deeply alarmed."
Fast forward.
Uber's CTO: burned the entire 2026 AI coding budget in 4 months. Then the COO on ROI: "that link is not there yet."
June 4, Alex Karp at AIPCon: "They are not happy. They do not like these people. They're tired of people token maxing. It looks like masturbation, and this cost them money."
Man. The irony.
$NVDA
Menoua Gharakhani Siraki retweeted
As with fat tails Llms are frequency machines that fail to extrapolate outside the sample set. What they know is the VISIBLE.
Almost as bad as economists, almost worse than psychologists.
Waymo Ends Ride Early
Sam Schwartz, the customer cited by Business Insider in a report on Thursday, said that Waymo’s support team asked him to get another ride, “probably Uber or Lyft.”
A spokesperson for Waymo cited in the report said that the ride was halted after the company’s operations team learned of a “planned protest activity.”
Essentially, the notion that AVs will soon dominate ridesharing giants like Uber is absurd given current limitations, though exactly how long it will take for such emerging technology to improve remains entirely unknown.
$UBER
benzinga.com/markets/tech/26…
Dan Niles: “You can be in an irrational market and still have a long way to go”
Beautifully said @DanielTNiles
There is no denying the contradictions of Dario Amodei; in my view, the reality is that his motives are driven by a pursuit of power, expressed through the language of socialism and politics.
Howard Marks: "Well, you know my firm Oaktree Capital Management first of all doesn't invest for the most part in the stock market. We're mostly investors in what's called credit or debt."
My assessment of Howard Marks's comment is that he doesn't engage with uncertainty but rather engages with predictable outcomes.
