This week I’m down about $15k. I went on vacation, and it looks like a lot of action happened right after I left. I got greedy and started trading whenever I had a bit of free time, which eventually pushed things too far. I’ll still trade while I’m away, but after 12 years in the markets I should know better , greed is one of the biggest profit killers.

If you're interested in smart gambling,the kind of calculated approach often called “trading” these days (including prediction markets) , I highly recommend the forum at arbusers.com. It’s a genuine gold mine.

I’ve been critical of Polymarket when I thought they handled things poorly. It’s only fair to say it when they get things right too.After the outages, they reimbursed/rewarded users who were affected. I had open orders, didn’t actually lose money, and still received $360. That was a solid move.I also complained about some website changes, and a Polymarket staff member reached out and explained things. It felt like they were actually listening.Appreciate that. Hope they keep going in this direction and build a really strong product.@SuhailKakar @0xdanzu

Over the past week, Polymarket has disabled trading at least 10 times. I understand that technical issues can happen, but at this point it has become unbearable.It happened twice today while I was actively trading. I was left stuck with open orders of $15k and $12k.If you cannot provide a reasonably stable trading platform (occasional unexpected problems are understandable), then stop offering trading until the issues are fixed. A lot of people are losing serious money because of this.

Does a roadmap mean a token is coming?

I’ve been trading a lot more on Kalshi lately. Still prefer Polymarket: better geo markets, more variety, lower fees, and no maker fee.What Kalshi gets right is the fee UX. You actually see what you pay. Polymarket’s fee system feels predatory, and I judge them for this.Also love Kalshi's option to place resting orders (order that stays but you don't become a taker). Polymarket needs better UX and more order types. @PredictParity and @betmoardotfun already show how good trading can/should feel (recommand both if you trade on poly). Kalshi should just drop the maker fee and add some geopolitical markets.

"What's wrong with this team? They have an amazing product, an innovative niche, and people rooting for them to succeed… yet it feels like they’re intentionally trying to fuck it up.

Do you still think there’ll be a $POLY airdrop?

They definitely don’t look like the people I know who actually make good money. Maybe @polyint looks like this...

Can someone explain this to me? When I copy my wallet address now, this message appears. Is it true? I don’t understand why I can no longer send funds directly like I could before.

Recently, I started trading on Kalshi. Coming from Polymarket, it was a bit tricky to adjust to the new platform at first. Luckily, Parity was there !

It seems I was mistaken,Polymarket didn’t introduce new withdraw fees out of the blue. They simply stopped subsidizing the swapping fees.

Polymarket has introduced withdrawal fees (0.07%). I’m not a fan of the change, but to be fair, it’s not an outrageous amount. They also claim you can still withdraw for free on Polygon (I’ll need to verify that).The real issue is how they handled it. They advertised free withdrawals for a long time, then quietly changed the policy without any announcement or warning. This is the 218,423,085th time they’ve pulled something like this. At this point, it doesn’t even feel like it’s about the money , it just feels like pure incompetence. It genuinely makes me sad. Polymarket used to be excellent, largely thanks to its huge selection of markets. But between the poor communication, bad management, and the constant bugs and errors popping up every week, it feels like they’re starting to lose their way.

Maybe Parity is the edge you were looking for

“The U.S. further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.”Do you think this is enough for the market to go yes? In my opinion, it’s not, because it’s contingent on a future event. I’d love to hear your opinion on this. polymarket.com/event/what-ir…

I'll drop some alpha (a lot of Polymarket OGs are probably gonna hate me for this). On the US-Iran nuclear deal market: If the US and Iran sign an MOU that states Iran agrees not to develop nuclear weapons, it should resolve to Yes , even if both sides are still saying there haven’t been any formal nuclear discussions yet. polymarket.com/event/us-iran…

The World Cup is coming, and even if you’re not a sports trader, expect significant opportunities to appear thanks to the massive liquidity spike. Stay sharp and keep your eyes wide open. polymarket.com/event/will-ne…

Another market conflict on Polymarket. This time they didn’t archive it so I was able to trade out but still scared after all the fiasco's of last times. Users had been asking for a couple of days to get proper clarification so we could avoid exactly this kind of spectacle. Nobody gave a fuck. Hey Polymarket you’re asleep at the wheel. Btw, this market is sitting at $45M. polymarket.com/event/microst… @williamlegate @shayne_coplan

Polymarket has disappointed me yet again and I’m now genuinely afraid to trade larger sizes on the platform.After losing $30k this month on the Ukraine-Russia ceasefire market because of an “archive market error,” I got hit with almost the exact same situation today. I was actively trading the “Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by…?” market when a sudden clarification flipped it from 80% Yes / 20% No to 30% Yes / 70% No in one move. Cost me another ~$20k.Look, nobody is saying markets shouldn’t be clarified. But until recently we at least had proper pre-clarifications. This feels increasingly sloppy and reactive. It really seems like Polymarket has become surprisingly unprofessional lately. Not a good look when people are putting serious money on the line. Clarifications are so inconcistent, not just the content but how they are made, there should be an SOP

Today I want to talk about a bond that went bad…Yesterday evening, several X accounts started claiming that Iran had issued a NOTAM and closed its airspace. By morning, the market was sitting at 98 and a ton of people were bonding it for that quick 1-2% gain.Later in the day, Iran’s aviation authority came out and dismissed the claim. The market flipped hard. Some bonders got wrecked and lost big money.Look, I still believe bonding is great and you can make solid profits with it, but you have to be extra careful. Use proper money management and don’t hesitate to sell at the first sign of trouble. polymarket.com/event/iran-cl…