Michael Lee at https://xitter.cf/t.co/JMEYksPWMT https://xitter.cf/t.co/sdtHxwR0Ew https://xitter.cf/t.co/b9X0pvsIKp

NYC/SRQ
Joined November 2014
Mike Lee retweeted
AI spending has sparked a tech sell off. What happens next? @MikeLeeStrategy gives us his take with @sws9876. 🔗cdn.jwplayer.com/videos/ERIq…
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Finishing strong! Jim Iuorio, Mike Lee, Byron Anderson, Arlan Suderman & Patrick Mueller. Tune to The Cow Guy Close on RFD-TV daily from 12:30pm CST and 1:30pm EST. @jimiuorio @MikeLeeStrategy @ByronAndersonII @ArlanFF101 @BellaAdvisors @AshleePitzl @OfficialRFDTV @CowGuyClose
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AI stocks are in focus...again. @Sydney_Armani, @MikeLeeStrategy, & @NavellierGrowth share their thoughts on the latest action in this week's @MoneyShow podcast 🎙️ AI Winners & Losers: 3 Experts Weigh in on the Best Stocks & Biggest Wor... youtu.be/2S0ib_c46iQ?si=9nD0… via @YouTube
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They hunt us. Slotkin is not hiding it.
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Mike Lee retweeted
Obamacare the single biggest line item other than housing for working families and it’s crippling for self-employed dads with lots of kids. No one would be talking about gas or egg prices if you had that money back. Say thank you to John McCain for that.
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Mike Lee retweeted
I've heard ENOUGH. BULLISH ON NEOCLOUDS 🚀
What it’s like trying to rent AI/SI compute
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A lot of questions this week on funding, so here's how a GPU typically gets funded at $IREN. First, the customer signs a multi-year take-or-pay contract and agrees to a prepayment. On our recent 3-year contracts, prepayments have been 45% to 55% of the associated GPU capex. Second, financing is committed, secured by the contracted GPUs. On the Microsoft contract we secured an A-rated facility at around 6%, which together with prepayments covers 96% of GPU capex. More recently, for a non-investment grade counterparty at Mackenzie, we secured financing at 9% fixed, which together with prepayments covers more than the full cost of the GPUs. That's the GPU side. The data centers are a separate, long-term asset base, and we own the ones our GPUs run in. Construction has been funded from cash to date, with no debt against these multi-billion dollar assets. As they come online with contracted customers, they can support financing in their own right. The processes behind the next facilities are continuing, and new paper will cost what the market charges. With GPU paybacks of around two years on our recent 3-year contracts, a wider spread barely moves the economics. There's more customer demand than we can build for. As we noted at our recent earnings, 2026 is largely sold out, recent 3-year contracts are at more than double the prior year's pricing, and demand for anything we can bring online in 2027 covers it several times over, with prepayments a focus in every negotiation. Conversations on 2028 capacity are already underway. Meanwhile announced capacity keeps slipping across the industry, which is the point: signing deals isn't the bottleneck in this market, bringing GPUs online is, and that's our focus.
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And you’re bearish on $CRWV
What it’s like trying to rent AI/SI compute
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Funny how Obama jumps in when fake birth certificates from Africa are the topic
It is a basic principle of American democracy that the government can’t selectively target individuals simply because of their political beliefs or what they say. But that’s exactly what the Trump Administration is doing to Congresswoman Ilhan Omar of Minnesota. To understand why this is so appalling, it’s important to know the facts. Congresswoman Omar came to this country with her father when she was 12 years old. Five years later, her father became a naturalized citizen. If Ilhan had been 18 at the time, she would have had to apply for citizenship separately. But because she was 17, she became a naturalized citizen automatically. Congresswoman Omar went on to graduate from college, work as a community organizer, become the first Somali-American legislator elected to public office in the U.S., and win a seat in Congress. There, she has been one of the Trump Administration’s fiercest critics, which has led the president to repeatedly single her out as someone who he believes does not belong in this country. Now the Administration is actively trying to deport Congresswoman Omar, seemingly based solely on the unsubstantiated theory that she was actually 18 when her father was naturalized, and therefore is not a citizen. Federal agents have raided her home, confiscated personal records, and seized her phone — all to try and uncover a nonexistent smoking gun from 20 years ago that will somehow make their case. Think about that. The full weight of the federal government is being brought down on a law-abiding elected official because she has dared to criticize the president. And it’s not the first time this has happened. Under President Trump, the Justice Department has repeatedly gone after those he considers his political enemies — from the Attorney General of New York, to the former head of the FBI, to members of the Federal Reserve. In those cases, the prosecutions either stalled or were dismissed for having no basis in law, and the same is likely to happen in this case. But not before Congresswoman Omar’s life has been turned upside down, her legal bills have piled up, and she’s been forced to spend time fighting unsubstantiated charges instead of serving the people of Minnesota. The fact that any president, or any administration, is willing to engage in such transparent efforts to intimidate someone should outrage all Americans, regardless of how they feel about Congresswoman Omar’s political views. Because if this becomes the new normal, there’s no reason to believe it will stop with her — or that future presidents, in either party, won’t do the same.
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CoreWeave's debt dynamics are full of nuances. The company has a multitude of financing instruments backed by different contracts, with different maturities, collateral packages, and counterparties of varying credit quality That naturally makes $CRWV a playground for bear porn... Compare instruments with fundamentally different risk profiles, like DDTL 4.0 and DDTL 5.5, and you can easily manufacture the impression of an approaching death spiral. Compare them properly, and the picture changes considerably The real issue isn't necessarily project economics. CoreWeave can underwrite highly profitable infrastructure investments and still face a funding bottleneck that prevents those projects from being deployed Whether its blended debt cost is 8%, 10%, or 12% matters less than whether its capital structure can repeatedly absorb another $10–15B of residual project funding over the next year If secured lenders continue advancing 75–85% against eligible infrastructure, while customers provide meaningful prepayments, the liquidity challenge looks quite manageable If advance rates compress toward 55–65%, unsecured markets remain effectively closed, and customer prepayments don't bridge the difference, residual funding requirements can increase to problematic levels My view? There are simply too many deep-pocketed stakeholders with powerful economic incentives to keep those funding needs under control With AI compute demand vastly exceeding supply, and strategic partners sitting on enormous cash reserves, it would make NO ECONOMIC SENSE to allow otherwise attractive, contracted infrastructure projects to stall over a residual funding gap that could be addressed through better financing structures, customer advances, or strategic capital Ofc the risk is real, we already knew that much since the IPO. But a funding bottleneck is not the same thing as a broken business model (especially if you have the implicit backing of the Central Bank of AI)
Replying to @convexititties
The short-duration contracts with non-investment grade customers (mainly AI startups so think Cognition, but also companies like HRT, Jane Street) are higher margin.. The costs with any deal are fixed (as D&A is the main expense) no matter how the revenue is structured, so higher rev. per unit of capex equals higher margins. CoreWeave can basically charge a higher $ per GPU hour to compensate for the renewal risk and customer credit profile on these deals.. It's pretty clear they are actively trying to diversify its customer base away from hyperscalers. CoreWeave mgmt. has more or less said the reason Microsoft, Meta, etc. have signed big deals with other neoclouds is because CoreWeave turned them down. This makes sense for a variety of reasons, primarily customer diversification and their goal of building a real enterprise platform as opposed to selling bare metal to other hyperscalers who are also your competitors. The idea that demand isn't there is kind of absurd when you consider CoreWeave's RPO (executed contracts) is now approaching $150B, from $15B when they IPO'd ~18 months ago. CoreWeave basically has a certain amount of data center capacity they can bring online each quarter, and has to "allocate" that to their customers.. Market is so tight right now that they can more or less hand-pick which customers they want, and they're moving towards the Caterpillars, Capital One's, Cognitions of the world versus selling to Microsoft. The IRR's as contracted are definitely above cost of capital. I think a typical 5-6 year contract is done at a ~20% UW IRR. But just think about it.. The first DDTL (DDTL 1.0) financed a Microsoft contract, at a 15% (S+9.6%) effective rate. If the IRR was below 15%, the contract's cash flows wouldn't be sufficient to pay P&I on the DDTL given the DDTL funds 75%+ of the capex. I did some modeling about 6 months ago on what I think a typical asset-level P&L looks like, will link below. IMO, the real risk (as you've alluded to) is access to funding (not great when you have to go raise billions of dollars non-stop to bring revenue online).
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Mike Lee retweeted
4 DAYS TO GO. AI and tech stocks have been running hot. But is there still room to run—or are valuations getting ahead of themselves? Michael Lee tackles one of the biggest questions facing investors heading into 2027. Join us for FREE on October 20. Reserve Your Pass: online.moneyshow.com/2026/oc…
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Make compute, not war
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Why would anyone borrow money to build a data center?
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The moves in $CRWV are unsettling to say the least but they are predicted on the music stopping and I just don’t see that happening - guess we’ll know more when they report in a few weeks
AI debt fears are growing. Is the tech boom cracking? Plus, what's Elon driving now? @MikeLeeStrategy sits down with @ScottTheCowGuy to connect the dots. 🔗cdn.jwplayer.com/videos/Wmc7…
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Friday baby! We have Jim Iuorio,Mike Lee,Byron Anderson,Arlan Suderman & Patrick Mueller.Tune in to The Cow Guy Close on RFD-TV daily from 12:30pm CST and 1:30pm EST. @jimiuorio @MikeLeeStrategy @ByronAndersonII @ArlanFF101 @BellaAdvisors @AshleePitzl @OfficialRFDTV @CowGuyClose
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Mike Lee retweeted
Meanwhile, in this thing called reality…
The Financial Times is stoking panic again, just as it did before the IPO.
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The Biden administration was gearing up to treat your support for President Trump as a crime. The Left’s goals have not changed, they have only been paused.
If you bought a MAGA hat between 2021-2025, Jack Smith had a spreadsheet with your name and home address. Let that sink in…. Thanks to Senator @ChuckGrassley & @SenJudiciaryGOP for bringing transparency! Time to hold Jack Smith accountable! @ItsYourGov
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Mike Lee retweeted
Upcoming hyperscaler earnings should provide the next read on capex intentions, and we expect those numbers to reinforce the upward trajectory rather than challenge it. We believe CoreWeave driven fears are way overdone-remind us of the Saas apocalypse fears earlier this year 🎯
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The way the DC press are acting you’d think Katie Zacharia did something completely insane like walked out there and married her brother
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