Milton Berg's EDGE signal for individual investors. One simple rule: 100% S&P 500 or 100% T-bills. Milton Berg posts on his personal account @bergmilton
Joined July 2026
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We've started publishing original videos of Milton Berg on his YouTube channel.
The first is up now: a 35-minute conversation, and the first one produced by us rather than a guest appearance on someone else's show. He walks through how he models market bottoms, going back to 1957.
Attached is his introduction — why a 48-year market veteran who managed money for Michael Steinhardt and George Soros decided to build something for ordinary investors.
Full conversation linked in the reply.
The Fed held rates, but two of its 12 voters wanted a hike now.
Closing Bell Report | Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026
Futures now put a December hike at about 85%, and Chair Kevin Warsh said: "Politics played no role in the decision." After the bell, Microsoft rose about 4% as Azure grew 48%; Alphabet fell more than 8% even as Cloud revenue more than doubled.
Will the Fed hike in December: yes or no?
The full stories behind the Closing Bell Report for Wednesday, Oct 28, with sources:
The Fed hold and the two dissents: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202…
Warsh on the midterms: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202…
Index up, typical stock down: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202…
Vertiv, Oracle and the chips: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202…
F5, Enphase and other movers: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202…
The 10-year and oil: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202…
Microsoft up, Alphabet down: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202…
Both camps, and Thursday's PCE: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202…
The close: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202…
Chips lifted Wall Street for a second day, but more S&P 500 stocks fell than rose, and Boeing sank 10.7%, to its lowest since April 2025.
Closing Bell Report | Tuesday, Oct 27, 2026
Behind the chip rally: Bank of America, Citi, Morgan Stanley and Blackstone announced $63 billion in financing to buy Broadcom's technology for Anthropic. Now the week comes down to two tests: the midterms, and whether AI spending pays off.
Midterms or AI earnings: which will move stocks more?
The full stories behind the Closing Bell Report for Tuesday, Oct 27, with sources:
Chips and a narrow rally: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202…
Boeing and the 737 Max ramp: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202…
Confidence and after-hours reports: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202…
The Fed on Wednesday: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202…
Big Tech earnings and AI spending: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202…
Anthropic and the IPO record: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202…
Oil, Iran and the refiners: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202…
Russia, Ukraine and diesel: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202…
The midterms and stocks: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202…
France's protests and bonds: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202…
Top or bottom?: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202…
The close: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202…
Closing Bell Report | Monday, Oct 26, 2026
Anthropic filed to go public Monday, and the beaten-down chip stocks jumped almost 3%. Last week, as chip stocks sold off, investors bought cybersecurity; on Monday they bought the AI builders and the defenders at once. But look under the index: 289 S&P 500 stocks rose and 211 fell, and the median stock gained just 0.2%.
Like, repost, follow, and tell us what you think in the comments.
The full stories behind tonight's Closing Bell Report, with sources:
Anthropic files to go public, chips jump: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202…
How the market closed: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202…
Oil and the Iran report: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202…
The movers: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202…
Chips vs. cyber: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202…
Sam Altman's warning: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202…
Under the index, 289 up, 211 down: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202…
The mood and both camps: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202…
The week ahead: miltonbergedge.com/daily/202…
Closing Bell Report | Thursday, Oct 22, 2026
The Nasdaq's worst day since June. Chip stocks sank nearly 7%, yet 336 S&P 500 stocks rose and only 166 fell. The real question was who pays for AI.
Should we keep making these every day? They take a lot of work, but if there's demand, we'll deliver. Vote in the poll below.
Like, repost, follow, and tell us what you think in the comments.
The one thing every forecaster claims to do, and Milton Berg says nobody does it well:
"It's very difficult to call market tops. Very, very difficult. I've never seen any great market analyst that's consistently called market tops. Never."
That's exactly why the model doesn't try to call the top. It works on probabilities and an 8% rule to step aside early once a decline is underway, and get back in early when the next advance starts.
Can anyone actually time a market bottom? Milton Berg says one approach has.
"I have seen an analyst who could consistently call market bottoms. And that's the MB Edge analysis."
The MB Edge analysis is built to do exactly that: come back in early at the start of a new bull market, and step aside early when a bear market begins. It works in probabilities, holding one position at a time, fully in the S&P 500 or fully in Treasury bills.
"I'm not a salesman. I don't want to sell my product."
Milton Berg on why the retail version costs ten dollars a month, and what he actually wants it to do: let an individual investor sleep at night, in bull markets and bear markets both.
How should you decide when to own stocks and when to step aside?
"Raise the probabilities, rather than trading based on seat of the pants or headline news."
That's the whole idea behind the model: it weighs the probabilities instead of reacting to the headline of the day, and it commits to one position at a time - fully in the S&P 500, or fully in Treasury bills.
Milton Berg, on why the model works in odds instead of forecasts:
"You're never involved in certainties. Everything is just probabilities."
That's how the model is built. It weighs probabilities rather than predicting, and it acts on them one position at a time, either fully in the S&P 500 or fully in Treasury bills.
A model built from 15 indicators fired at the March 2020 low. It had happened exactly once before.
Milton Berg left it out of everything he acts on - one instance is not evidence. It fired again this year, and only now does it count.
That is the discipline behind 30,000 indicators and around 2,000 models.
What does Milton Berg actually watch, if not the news?
"We really care very little about the headline news — what the price of oil is doing, what inflation is doing. We only care about the data the market is showing us."
The model works the same way. It reads the market's own signals rather than the headlines, and it acts on probabilities instead of predictions - fully in the S&P 500 or fully in Treasury bills, based on what the data shows.
Can anyone reliably call a recession before it happens?
"It's difficult enough calling markets. It's more difficult calling recessions. Economists have never been correct in calling recessions or calling recoveries."
That's why the model doesn't try. It reads the market's own action and works in probabilities, not forecasts, built to step aside early in a bear market and come back early when the next bull market starts.
Why does Milton Berg leave some of the sharpest signals out of the models?
"We have many combinations of indicators that signal once precisely at a market low — but we don't include that in our models, because this is only one instance."
One signal, however perfect, is not enough for Milton Berg to add an indicator to the models. What earns a place is continuity: the same indicator firing at the same kind of moment again and again across decades. A signal in the model is a pattern that has repeated, not a story that happened once.
Who is a stock-market model actually for?
"A guy who has a grocery store, or a computer programmer, or a fellow who's working as an accountant, cannot spend his days in front of a stock-market screen."
Most people have a job that isn't watching a screen all day, so the model does the watching for them. It runs on one decision at a time - fully in the S&P 500 or fully in Treasury bills - so following it doesn't take your day.
For those asking why Milton Berg @BergMilton is short for Institutional clients but still long on his retail product.
teapaw.org/MiltonBergEdge/status/…
Our Institutional report (excerpts) were posted in Investor Intelligence this morning. investorsintelligence.com/
“We remain aggressively short. As of yesterday’s close, the portfolio was 194.37% short, with a return to date of -0.57% on the short positions. In our assessment, the equity markets remain in a topping process.
The Nasdaq Comp reached a new all-time high on 22-Sep, the W.D. Gann “Day of Infamy,; exceeding its prior 1-Jun high by just 0.36%. This marginal new high coincided with a Gann date and was accompanied by significant negative divergences. Most notably, the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400, S&P SmallCap 600, SOX, Russell 2000, and advance-decline lines failed to confirm the Nasdaq’s move into new-high territory. We do not want to overanalyze or overtrade. Our aggressive short positioning was established on the basis of pattern analysis, VXN deviations, and cycle theory, and the rationale remains intact.” (24-Sep-26)
[shifting] “We will make portfolio changes based on current market action, cyclic forces, and oversold conditions. Covering IJH, IJR, Reducing exposure in SPY, positioning long TLT. Our oscillator reached a relatively deep oversold reading on 18-Sep and has now reversed to neutral territory. An oversold reading is a prerequisite for a tradable low. We are in a final Montgomery turn cycle period.
We will retain our 37.48% short position in QQQ. We will retain our 19.90% short position in SOXX.
The S&P 500 peaked on the 13-Aug Montgomery date. It declined just 3.95% into 16-Sep and generated a recovery high into the 22-Sep WD Gann date. We will reduce short exposure in the S&P 500 to 75% from the current 103.15%. For tracking purposes we will use VWAP on the day. The reversal in our oscillator off an oversold condition warrants a reduction in short exposure.25-Sep-26)
Milton Berg’s MB Advisors Research Letter, New York, NY miltonberg.com