Day Trader | $BTC | @ParagonDen | TA-Focused • Patterns • Waves • Liquidity | High-Quality Market Updates & Trade Setups
Not Financial Advise
Joined July 2025
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$BTC
If You Missed the last 2 longs from 62K & 75K,
You haven't missed out on anything.
The Bull Market is literally just getting started.
The biggest moves to capitalize on are yet to come.
There are countless high-quality trades you can take and make serious money.
All you have to do is Buy Support & Be Patient.
It's literally as easy as that.
I publicly showed how it's done throughout the bear market.
Then I caught every penny of this pump from 62K through my swing longs.
Now, I'm running a dedicated challenge for free, where I'll be taking these exact kind of swing trades only.
Starting from 5K. First target is 15K, but we won't stop there.
The goal this time isn't just to catch the entire pump of this bull market.
It's also to transparently document how even a small amount can be compounded massively when traded smartly.
If you're interested in following along, join our free Discord from the link in bio.
Let's keep this thing going.
$BTC
Zoomed in w/ Last Cycle's Fractals
Now, We all know that we've been following the Last Cycle's PA pretty much to the dot so far. However, I don't solely rely on historical references as they're never guaranteed to play out again, and each cycle's PA is different from the last one in one way or another.
But the thing is, When I couple the Yearly Candle Time + Liquidity analysis I shared above with the last cycle's price action, They pretty much complement each other.
In fact, It feels less like a historical PA reference here and more like a visual representation of that thought process on the chart right now.
Based on this Fractal, The roadmap is the same:
--> Retest of the previous yearly candle's low to complete HTF Wave 2.
--> Pump back above the yearly open and close the year in green around 93.6k
--> Next yearly candle holds the current yearly open and continues towards the upside.
Pretty much what I shared in the post above, and both scenarios line up pretty well and complement each other.
So where I'm getting at is that if we lose the current lows, It would very likely mean we repeat something similar to what we saw back in 2023.
A HTF correction is due, and the 74k-72k region has always remained on my radar.
However, For that region to come into play, We first need to break below the 0.618 Fib on the 1D, sitting at 79.6k.
$BTC
This yearly candle is important.
My base scenario was that we would deviate above the yearly open and tap 93.6k before retracing back below 87.4k and closing the yearly candle in red.
Then, when the 2027 yearly candle opens, it would first fill some of the wick of the current year's candle, where we'd get a retest of the 74.5k region before continuing towards the upside.
Now, Putting a Wave Count on this thesis, It would look something like this:
Deviation above 93k = Monthly Wave 1.
Yearly close below 87.4k, making the candle close in red.
The 2027 candle fills some of the wick of the 2026 candle = Monthly Wave 2 around the 74k region.
Following that wick fill, We pump towards the upside inside Wave 3 and create a new ATH.
This was my overall time, price + liquidity thesis behind the Wave Count I'm tracking on the Weekly/Monthly, and it's still pretty much valid as long as we keep holding the 0.618 Fib and the trendline on the Daily.
However, The catch is that if we lose that 0.618 Fib / trendline on the Daily and actually complete Wave 2 in the start of next month, It would change the timeline significantly.
Meaning that the imbalance which should ideally be cleared by next year's candle would instead be filled during the current yearly session.
Now, Given that we have liquidity stacked above the yearly open as of now, A tap into the 76k-74k region for completing Wave 2 within this year would mean we're likely to pump for the rest of Q4 and close the yearly candle in green, potentially around the 93.3k region.
From there, The next yearly candle would only come down to the 87.4k region for a minor retest before continuing higher.
So if we complete the Weekly Wave 2 in the upcoming days, It would mean we're setting up for a bigger impulse before the end of the year, and November-December could take us into the 93k-96k region.
$BTC
This yearly candle is important.
My base scenario was that we would deviate above the yearly open and tap 93.6k before retracing back below 87.4k and closing the yearly candle in red.
Then, when the 2027 yearly candle opens, it would first fill some of the wick of the current year's candle, where we'd get a retest of the 74.5k region before continuing towards the upside.
Now, Putting a Wave Count on this thesis, It would look something like this:
Deviation above 93k = Monthly Wave 1.
Yearly close below 87.4k, making the candle close in red.
The 2027 candle fills some of the wick of the 2026 candle = Monthly Wave 2 around the 74k region.
Following that wick fill, We pump towards the upside inside Wave 3 and create a new ATH.
This was my overall time, price + liquidity thesis behind the Wave Count I'm tracking on the Weekly/Monthly, and it's still pretty much valid as long as we keep holding the 0.618 Fib and the trendline on the Daily.
However, The catch is that if we lose that 0.618 Fib / trendline on the Daily and actually complete Wave 2 in the start of next month, It would change the timeline significantly.
Meaning that the imbalance which should ideally be cleared by next year's candle would instead be filled during the current yearly session.
Now, Given that we have liquidity stacked above the yearly open as of now, A tap into the 76k-74k region for completing Wave 2 within this year would mean we're likely to pump for the rest of Q4 and close the yearly candle in green, potentially around the 93.3k region.
From there, The next yearly candle would only come down to the 87.4k region for a minor retest before continuing higher.
So if we complete the Weekly Wave 2 in the upcoming days, It would mean we're setting up for a bigger impulse before the end of the year, and November-December could take us into the 93k-96k region.
$BTC
Back at the 0.618 Fib / Bottom Trendline Region.
Quite boring PA when we're just bouncing up and down inside the same choppy range.
The plan However, Remains the Same.
As long as we're holding this 0.618 Fib region / Trendline, The breakout from this range will be towards the upside.
Lose this trendline and we'll likely see the 77.8k-74.4k region next, potentially at the start of next month before continuing towards the upside.
$BTC | LTF
This Deviation Zone is where we need to see a bounce from if we're going to continue pushing higher during this daily session.
If we break below the current Asia Low (80.5k), It will most likely invalidate the bullish thesis for the day and put us back inside the previous range.
In that case, We have the Weekly Open sitting at 80.1k, Which will act as a key S/R level for now. Losing it would expose the current lows.
At the current lows, We also have Trendline Liquidity built up which would likely be taken if we lose the Weekly Open.
Ideally, We want to see this Deviation Zone deliver a bounce and send us back towards the upside, Where we have the Daily FVG sitting at 82k-82.5k.
$BTC
Retest Done. ✅
Bulls must defend this zone now...
$BTC | LTF
A retest of Daily Open could be next here.
We have some internal liquidity sitting there which will likely be taken out before continuation higher.
However, For us to continue moving up, We need to hold the Daily Open region.
Losing this level will put bulls in danger once again.
$BTC | LTF
A retest of Daily Open could be next here.
We have some internal liquidity sitting there which will likely be taken out before continuation higher.
However, For us to continue moving up, We need to hold the Daily Open region.
Losing this level will put bulls in danger once again.
$BTC
The Morning Star bottom on the Daily is now looking clean
Right now, We're seeing small rejections from 81,144, but I expect us to thrust through it.
The real battle for control will be inside that Daily FVG region at 82k-82.5k.
I might open a small hedge short there if we see a rejection, but overall, I'm not interested in shorting.
We've seen extremely one-sided PA over the last week or so, creating a lot of imbalance towards the upside, and that imbalance will ultimately get filled.
Which means that shorts could most likely be used as bait/liquidity for pushing the price higher from here, Hence why I'm being a bit careful with them.
This could very likely be our local bottom before 90k's.
$ETH
Finding support for the next impulse.
Right now, We're bouncing from the first POI for Wave 4 (0.382 Fib), which is the first support zone for this correction.
The confirmation of Wave 4 being complete will be a reclaim of the 2370 region, where we had the previous range lows.
If we manage to flip and hold above that level, it will validate a push towards the 2966-3283 region in the upcoming months.
This upside target remains valid even if we dip a little further into the 0.5 Fib region around 2150.
We have a Daily FVG sitting there, which could potentially be filled in a max pain scenario.
My plan for now is simply to buy around this Wave 4 support zone.
I'm still in my long and have also bought some spot around these levels which I shared inside our free discord.
Hopium.... $BTC
$BTC
Same chop, new day.
We're inside a falling wedge/symmetrical triangle on the LTF, which is a classic bullish reversal pattern when it appears at the bottom of a downtrend.
Along with that, we've formed a double bottom in the start of the current week as well.
The last daily candle also closed as a Doji, which by itself signals indecision. But when we couple that with the fact that it's forming at a major HTF support, the odds of a reversal start looking a little better.
Ideally, we see the current daily candle trigger the reversal and complete the Morning Star bottom pattern.
Now, for this setup to remain valid, we need to hold the 79.8k-79.6k region throughout this daily session and break out of the falling wedge to confirm the local bottom.
At this point, losing the current low will most likely send us lower into the 77.8k-76.4k region.
Unlike the previous few sweeps, we're not seeing any strong bullish reaction from the latest one, which is starting to look concerning for the bulls.
$BTC
Same chop, new day.
We're inside a falling wedge/symmetrical triangle on the LTF, which is a classic bullish reversal pattern when it appears at the bottom of a downtrend.
Along with that, we've formed a double bottom in the start of the current week as well.
The last daily candle also closed as a Doji, which by itself signals indecision. But when we couple that with the fact that it's forming at a major HTF support, the odds of a reversal start looking a little better.
Ideally, we see the current daily candle trigger the reversal and complete the Morning Star bottom pattern.
Now, for this setup to remain valid, we need to hold the 79.8k-79.6k region throughout this daily session and break out of the falling wedge to confirm the local bottom.
At this point, losing the current low will most likely send us lower into the 77.8k-76.4k region.
Unlike the previous few sweeps, we're not seeing any strong bullish reaction from the latest one, which is starting to look concerning for the bulls.
$BTC
Looking for a retest of 82k-82.5k if we continue holding this 79.7k region.
This retest would be bearish unless we reclaim that region with strength.
The last few daily sessions have been nothing but red, so there's a lot of imbalance towards the upside that could get filled first.
If we lose 79.7k, we're likely heading towards the Blue HTF OB at 76.8k-74k before continuation back towards the upside.
This week should be interesting, given that it's the final week of the month.
I think it's about time we finally see a breakout in either direction from this boring chop.
$BTC
83K is the Current Magnet 🧲
There's also a Potential H&S Pattern forming on the 30M
If we respect the Right Shoulder, I expect Short Squeeze into the Magnet zone shortly
$BTC
Forming a Bull-Flag on the LTF
However these EQL's below will likely be taken first.
Need to hold Daily Open Region (81.3k) for continuation towards the upside.
$BTC
First Liquidity Box Cleared. ✅
Now, it's crucial that we reclaim and hold back above the Weekly Open region.
Yesterdays dump was brutal and extremely one-sided, which created a ton of imbalance towards the upside.
So naturally, once we reclaim 82k, we should see price fill some of that imbalance.
The key S/R level remains the 82.5k-82.8k region, and ideally, we should see the current weekly candle close above it if the bottom is in.
We dumped into Friday again, which usually sets up an inverse move over the weekend.
It'll be interesting to see how PA develops over the next few 4H sessions.
$BTC
Swept the PWH & dumped back below Weekly Open.
Which means, we're likely going to stay inside this range for a while and keep hunting liquidity on both sides.
This current move down has created a lot of imbalance, but it doesn't seem to be finished just yet.
We have some liquidity sitting at the 81.2k region, which will be next if we lose this Red Trendline.
So far, we've been making HH's & HL's, with the lows being formed on this trendline. This makes it a little bit likely for us to hold it once again.
However, there's also trendline liquidity building up below, so it's quite a risky bet.
Ideally, we should see a bounce from this TL, followed by a reclaim of Weekly Open for continuation towards the upside.
If we fail to do so, 81k-80k lows will be next.
