Mohamed Addow

#SecurityAlert Uganda’s Withdrawal: The Geopolitical Battle for Somalia According to regional diplomatic and intelligence sources, the Ugandan troops being withdrawn from Somalia are reportedly being prepared for deployment to the Gaza Strip, in Palestinian territory. The operation is allegedly being financed by the Gulf State, which is said to be providing millions of dollars to cover the costs while simultaneously persuading Uganda to withdraw its forces from Somalia. Although President Yoweri Museveni had viewed Uganda’s withdrawal from Somalia as a potential strategic loss for both Somalia and the wider region, mounting pressure, largely driven by financial considerations and Uganda’s strategic relationship with Israel, appears to have played a significant role in shaping the decision. Furthermore, the recent verbal attacks against Türkiye by General Muhoozi Kainerugaba should not necessarily be viewed as isolated or spontaneous remarks. Rather, they appear to form part of a broader, coordinated political and strategic campaign, potentially linked to the wider geopolitical manoeuvring surrounding Somalia. Türkiye must recognise the strategic consequences of Somalia losing regional allies because of its decision to prioritise its relationship with Ankara over other partnerships. It must understand that its growing strategic role in Somalia comes with considerable responsibility, including the need to protect the partnership from external pressure and geopolitical interference. This may require Ankara to consider a substantially stronger security commitment, including the possible deployment of thousands of additional troops to Somalia, if circumstances demand it. Ultimately, Uganda deserves Somalia’s appreciation for its contribution to the country’s security, even if its decision to withdraw comes at a time when Somalia needs its support more than ever. However, strategic partnerships must be assessed in terms of their reliability, long-term interests, and commitment to Somalia’s sovereignty and stability. #FGS #Uganda #Türkiye #AlShabaab #Security #Counterterrorism #HOA #EA

#SecurityAlert The Resurgence of Al-Shabaab in Somalia: Deteriorating Security, Political Deadlock and the Growing Disillusionment of Somalia’s International Partners There has been a significant increase in terrorist activities carried out by Al-Shabaab across Somalia, including a series of attacks in southern Somalia and Puntland over the past several weeks. These attacks have resulted in casualties among security forces and civilians alike. Al-Shabaab has carried out several deadly attacks in areas under the administration of South West State, particularly in Buurhakaba, Baidoa and Leego. The group has also launched two to three attacks in the Bari region of Puntland, an area where it had not conducted operations for a considerable period. These developments are being interpreted as an indication that the group is regaining momentum and reviving its campaign against FGS and the country’s Federal Member States. Security sources suggest that Al-Shabaab’s renewed operational momentum may be linked to the involvement of foreign governments opposed to President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s political leadership. However, these allegations remain unverified and cannot be independently substantiated at this stage. A regional diplomat has confirmed to me that dissatisfaction with the Somali President’s political leadership has increasingly fuelled discussions about creating alternative centres of power within the country, even if such developments were to require a reassessment of Somalia’s territorial and political map. The diplomat further indicated that a number of countries have become increasingly receptive to the prospect of Al-Shabaab reaching political accommodation with certain regional administrations, suggesting that some external actors may be willing to adjust their positions to facilitate such arrangements. The debate surrounding the interconnected nature of Somalia’s security and political challenges has intensified in recent months, particularly following the conclusion of the UN’s political and operational presence in Somalia, alongside the commencement of the previously agreed plans to reduce the number of AUSSOM troops. Political and security analysts have criticised the FGS leadership for failing to adequately communicate to the Somali public that the conclusion of the UN’s presence and the phased reduction of AUSSOM forces were planned developments, agreed upon well in advance, rather than sudden or unexpected events. They argue that the government’s failure to provide clear and timely public communication has allowed other actors to impose misleading interpretations on these developments, fuelling uncertainty, public anxiety and concerns about the country’s security arrangements and political transition. Despite the considerable frustration expressed by Somalia’s international partners over the way the country’s political affairs have been managed, most have chosen to remain largely silent, limiting their involvement to observing developments from the sidelines. Nevertheless, several countries have reportedly taken a more assertive approach, at both regional and international levels, by investing political and diplomatic resources in efforts that undermine Somalia’s political order and institutions in pursuit of their own strategic agendas. The widening political divide between the Federal Government and the opposition is creating dangerous opportunities for terrorist organisations and external actors seeking to turn Somalia into a theatre of persistent conflict, instability and geopolitical competition, preventing the emergence of a strong and functional state. Such actors seek to exploit Somalia’s vulnerabilities to advance their own interests, including securing influence over the country’s territory, territorial waters and strategic resources, according to the concerns raised in these political and diplomatic circles. #FGS #UNSOMALIA #AUSSOM #AlShabaab #Security #Counterterrorism #HOA

#SecurityAlert The AS ambush on SNA between Lego and Jameeco exposes a serious intelligence and operational security failure that demands immediate investigation and accountability. Authorising a military convoy to move without confirming that its route was secure suggests a grave breakdown in threat assessment, intelligence coordination, and operational planning. The apparent failure to protect the convoy’s movements and schedule also raises serious concerns about information security and possible intelligence leaks. Command responsibility must not be overlooked. An independent investigation should determine how the move was authorised, what intelligence concerning the enemy movement ahead was available, which security protocols were followed, and where the chain of command failed. Anyone whose negligence, dereliction of duty, or poor judgement contributed to the incident must be held accountable. These failures require decisive corrective action to prevent a recurrence. #Villasomalia #MOD #SNA #AS #Security #Counterterrorism #HOA #EA