Pro Punter since 2007. Cheltenham Festival and Grand National specialist. Racing Post columnist Author of "Cheltenham Man" the best horse racing book of 2025!

Newbury
Joined March 2025
My favourite race of the season, the Grand National is just 172 days away😀 If you're familiar with how I approach the race, you'll know I like to have a final squad of half a dozen running for me on the day (with a similar number traded before the day... hopefully for profit!) Last season's 1-2-3: I Am Maximus, Iroko and Jordans are once again likely to be in my final squad, but which of them really stands out as my best bet of the season, and which 33-1 shot looks worth getting on board before the price goes? Some "early" thoughts in the first of this season's articles on cheltenham-man.co.uk
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If you enjoyed Cheltenham Man, you might like Mares, Maggots & Rosé, too. If you didn’t, you’ll probably still enjoy the maggots… A look back at the punting, trading and action at last year’s Cheltenham Festival, with a few of the old characters and a couple of new ones along for the ride. Available now at : cheltenham-man.co.uk
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A great book and a great cause. Well done Paul for all your hard work 👏 Looking forward to reading it soon!
Pre-orders for ‘100 Punting Feats And Bad Beats’ aiding children’s charity @ActionForAT, now available at weatherbysshop.co.uk/product… Full cast list of pro punters, bookies, media & poker names who have kindly donated a personal betting tale appear on the front cover. Publish Oct 12.
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Thank you Adam!
Replying to @Moray_Smith
@Moray_Smith A wonderful read. A wonderful journey. Keep up the good work.
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Typical end of season stuff, but Gaelic Warrior looking every inch a real champion. Can he come back next year as a 9yo and run to the same level? If so then he'll be pretty unstoppable. Big IF though according to the ages of recent Cheltenham Gold Cup winners - the last 10 have been younger, but who among the younger horses looks a real threat at the moment?
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Huge win. Just Millwall to worry about now for me.
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RIP. Hard to believe he was only 11. SWC was mustard on him over those fences. He was hard to find in that renewal but showed that if you're good enough, you're old enough.
RIP Noble Yeats 💔 We're saddened to learn that the 2022 Grand National hero has passed away after suffering from colic, aged 11.
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Git Maker nailed on to place in the mud up at Ayr today? He loves the ground and stays 4m. How many of the field can you say that about? Might find one too classy but looks sure to be contesting the places to me.
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Immediate post National thoughts: 1. Jordans went from last to first in a short period of time. Energy reserves need to be used more efficiently. Best horse in the race at the weights for me but far from the best ride. 2. How does I am Maximus jump like that and still run so well every year!! 3. Did the weight Iroko picked up for beating Firefox cost him the race? Possibly. 4. Captain Cody would have been among it had he not unseated. 5. My shortlist of 6 in today's RP article had the first three and 3 fallers. The race is not the lottery some folk think! 6. Jordans will be the ideal age at 8 next year and will again be trained for the race. Next year's Iroko-sized each way bet for me probably 😂
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Paddy Power prices on the top 34 runners in the Grand National give an overround over 161%. Sure, there's one extra place on offer online, but surely they can do better than that?! Everyone moans about how the SP prices on the day are squeezed, but for comparison, the last two SP overrounds have been 137% and 138%. 161% is taking the P P in my opinion.
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Spillanes Tower has been declared for the Grand National as expected this morning. They will run tomorrow in the Bowl if the ground is deemed to have enough give in it, otherwise they'll wait to see if it's any better on the National course on Saturday. It looks touch and go for Imperial Saint to squeeze in.
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We are fortunate to have kids with higher aspirations in life 😂
My son Kieran has fortunately not followed me into the rancid world of gaming and is doing more honourable things with his life. If any of my followers chopped it off this week and fancy chucking a fiver in to his charitable cause below, I tip my hat gofundme.com/f/inclusive-cli…
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You have to feel a lot of sympathy for the staff that work in the William Hill shops and in head office roles that will be losing their jobs after today's announcement. I've yet to hear which shops are going (I know Sidmouth is ok as I'm in Devon for a few days) but there are some good folk working in their shops I've known for years. It's being blamed on governmental tax issues and that no doubt played a part but given the timing of the announcement, it's hard not to wonder if the "glitch" that cost them approaching £270m I heard, played a big part too. It's certainly in their interests to frame it as purely tax related. The number of bookmaker shops in out towns and cities will soon be down to half the number there were a decade ago.
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The percentage of runners that fell, unseated, refused or were brought down in the last 10 renewals of the Grand National make interesting reading: 2015 28% 2016 28% 2017 20% 2018 34% 2019 18% 2021 25% 2022 35% 2023 38% 2024 13% 2025 15% The key takeout is that the modifications made to the fences and landing areas, and other tweaks, made before the 2024 Grand National seem to have made a BIG difference. The average over the preceding 8 renewals was 28%. In the two renewals since the modifications were made, that figure has halved to 14%. Is it any coincidence that I am Maximus, who has looked anything but a natural jumper at times, has managed to win and finish runner up in the last two renewals? How would he have fared in an an earlier version of the race? The Grand National is no longer the test of jumping it once was and horses prone to making mistakes, like Jagwar and I Am Maximus, now have much better chances. Class and stamina are now of far greater importance. Class dominates when the ground is decent, as we saw all too clearly last year (the first three home were 1,3 and 4 in the weights). But, if it's testing (and three of the last ten renewals have been) then stamina might become the #1 requirement. I think there's a danger of recency bias and overplaying the class angle IF it's a slog. The weather forecast seems to have changed in the last day or two.....I've just been looking at the 14-day forecast on myweather2.com It's British weather so notoriously hard to predict BUT there is a lot of rain forecast at Aintree that week. If that rain materialises, it may not be an old-school National in terms of the fences but we could see a proper grueller and it could be hard work for some of the classier top-weights.
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10 days on from the post......it's actually looking possible 😲
Anyone else see Jagwar going off favourite in the Grand National?!
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Gutting news for any lovers of the sport.
We have very sadly lost the battle to overcome Sir Gino’s ailment and he has had to be put to sleep at the veterinary hospital this morning. He has been fighting from severe deep-seated infections that he had overcome last year prior to his brilliant return in the Christmas Hurdle but this time it had spread too far although his fractured pelvis was healing well. He was not only brilliant but one of the nicest kindest horses you could ever wish to see and this leaves an awful hole in Seven Barrows this morning and a very sad day for Joe & Marie Donnelly. They have had some wonderful horses over the years and they both care so much for them so losing such a young star with his life in front of him is particularly cruel. Sir Gino was unbeaten in all his 7 starts including 3 Grade 1’s over hurdles and an amazing display in a Grade 2 Chase on his one and only start over fences. We would have to say that he was just at least as good as any of all the amazing horses we have been lucky enough to have trained. Unforgettable in every way.
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