NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center (@NCS_SCPC) header
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Welcome to the National Crash Service. Forecasting crash potential during racing events. Run by @JlukeJohn. Outlooks are issued from Friday through Sunday.

Philadelphia PA
Joined February 2020
Photo by NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center (@NCS_SCPC)Photo by NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center (@NCS_SCPC)Photo by NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center (@NCS_SCPC)Photo by NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center (@NCS_SCPC)Photo by NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center (@NCS_SCPC)Photo by NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center (@NCS_SCPC)Photo by NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center (@NCS_SCPC)Photo by NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center (@NCS_SCPC)Photo by NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center (@NCS_SCPC)Photo by NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center (@NCS_SCPC)
Do you own a NASCAR/IndyCar centric Discord server? If so, you could get real time SCPC (Outlooks, Watches. Warnings, etc.) alerts sent to your server. Let me know if you're interested and we'll get you set up with a webhook. #NASCAR
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NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center retweeted
A moment of silence for the NAM forecast model which is retiring tomorrow morning after 20 years.
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SCPC Big One Watch for MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY has been canceled.
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE CRASH WARNING NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE PHILADELPHIA PA 03:41 PM EST SUN NOV 01 2026 THE NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE IN PHILADELPHIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE CRASH WARNING FOR. . . MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY * UNTIL 03:46 PM AT 03:41 PM EST SUN NOV 01 2026 A SEVERE CRASH WAS OBSERVED NEAR TURNS 1-2 HAZARD... 1-4 CAR CRASH. SOURCE... OBSERVED IMPACT... CAR DAMAGE IS LIKELY. DAMAGE TO SAFER BARRIERS IS POSSIBLE. FIRES ARE POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TURN 1, TURN 2 A BIG ONE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 06:30 PM FOR MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY #NASCAR #Xfinity500
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE CRASH WARNING NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE PHILADELPHIA PA 03:35 PM EST SUN NOV 01 2026 THE NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE IN PHILADELPHIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE CRASH WARNING FOR. . . MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY * UNTIL 03:40 PM AT 03:35 PM EST SUN NOV 01 2026 A SEVERE CRASH WAS OBSERVED NEAR TURNS 1-2 HAZARD... 1-4 CAR CRASH. SOURCE... OBSERVED IMPACT... CAR DAMAGE IS LIKELY. DAMAGE TO SAFER BARRIERS IS POSSIBLE. FIRES ARE POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TURN 1, TURN 2 A BIG ONE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 06:30 PM FOR MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY #NASCAR #Xfinity500
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NCS Severe Crash Prediction Center retweeted
You have GOT to be kidding me!
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED BIG ONE WATCH NUMBER 210 NCS SEVERE CRASH PREDICTION CENTER PHILADELPHIA PA 02:00 PM EST SUNDAY NOVEMBER 01 2026 THE NCS SEVERE CRASH PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * BIG ONE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY FROM 02:00 PM UNTIL 06:30 PM. * PRIMARY CONCERNS INCLUDE... SEVERE CRASHES AND SOME SIGNIFICANT MULTI-CAR CRASHES INCLUDING UP TO 15 CARS POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A BIG ONE WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE CRASHES INCLUDING BIG ONES IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. ALTHOUGH SEVERE CRASHES MAY NOT BE IMMINENT, PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING RACING CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS && #NASCAR #Xfinity500
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You have GOT to be kidding me!
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1:54pm EST SCPC Day 1 Outlook Moderate Risk: across portions of Martinsville Speedway #NASCAR #Xfinity500
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE CRASH WARNING NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE PHILADELPHIA PA 06:40 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2026 THE NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE IN PHILADELPHIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE CRASH WARNING FOR. . . MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY * UNTIL 06:45 PM AT 06:40 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2026 A SEVERE CRASH WAS OBSERVED NEAR TURNS 1-2 HAZARD... 1-4 CAR CRASH. SOURCE... OBSERVED IMPACT... CAR DAMAGE IS LIKELY. DAMAGE TO SAFER BARRIERS IS POSSIBLE. FIRES ARE POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TURN 1, TURN 2 A BIG ONE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 07:00 PM FOR MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY SEVERE CRASH DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE #NASCAR #NationalDebtRelief250
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The Outlook does not have probs above 90%. But going strictly by the numbers, we are at 100%.
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE CRASH WARNING NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE PHILADELPHIA PA 06:25 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2026 THE NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE IN PHILADELPHIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE CRASH WARNING FOR. . . MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY * UNTIL 06:30 PM AT 06:25 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2026 A SEVERE CRASH WAS OBSERVED NEAR TURNS 1-2 HAZARD... 1-4 CAR CRASH. SOURCE... OBSERVED IMPACT... CAR DAMAGE IS LIKELY. DAMAGE TO SAFER BARRIERS IS POSSIBLE. FIRES ARE POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TURN 1, TURN 2 A BIG ONE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 07:00 PM FOR MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY SEVERE CRASH DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE #NASCAR #NationalDebtRelief250
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE CRASH WARNING NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE PHILADELPHIA PA 06:17 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2026 THE NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE IN PHILADELPHIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE CRASH WARNING FOR. . . MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY * UNTIL 06:22 PM AT 06:17 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2026 A SEVERE CRASH WAS OBSERVED NEAR TURNS 3-4 HAZARD... 1-4 CAR CRASH. SOURCE... OBSERVED IMPACT... CAR DAMAGE IS LIKELY. DAMAGE TO SAFER BARRIERS IS POSSIBLE. FIRES ARE POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TURN 3, TURN 4 A BIG ONE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 07:00 PM FOR MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY SEVERE CRASH DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE #NASCAR #NationalDebtRelief250
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE CRASH WARNING NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE PHILADELPHIA PA 05:55 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2026 THE NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE IN PHILADELPHIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE CRASH WARNING FOR. . . MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY * UNTIL 06:05 PM AT 05:55 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2026 A DESTRUCTIVE CRASH WAS OBSERVED NEAR THE BACKSTRETCH HAZARD... DESTRUCTIVE 1-4 CAR CRASH. SOURCE... OBSERVED IMPACT... THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. CARS WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. CARS COULD LEAK CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF OIL AND FUEL, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LARGE FIRES. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BACKSTRETCH A BIG ONE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 07:00 PM FOR MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY #NASCAR #NationalDebtRelief250
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE CRASH WARNING NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE PHILADELPHIA PA 05:45 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2026 THE NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE IN PHILADELPHIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE CRASH WARNING FOR. . . MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY * UNTIL 05:50 PM AT 05:45 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2026 A SEVERE CRASH WAS OBSERVED NEAR TURNS 1-2 HAZARD... 1-4 CAR CRASH. SOURCE... OBSERVED IMPACT... CAR DAMAGE IS LIKELY. DAMAGE TO SAFER BARRIERS IS POSSIBLE. FIRES ARE POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TURN 1, TURN 2 A BIG ONE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 07:00 PM FOR MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY #NASCAR #NationalDebtRelief250
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE CRASH WARNING NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE PHILADELPHIA PA 05:16 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2026 THE NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE IN PHILADELPHIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE CRASH WARNING FOR. . . MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY * UNTIL 05:21 PM AT 05:16 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2026 A SEVERE CRASH WAS OBSERVED NEAR TURNS 1-2 HAZARD... 1-4 CAR CRASH. SOURCE... OBSERVED IMPACT... CAR DAMAGE IS LIKELY. DAMAGE TO SAFER BARRIERS IS POSSIBLE. FIRES ARE POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TURN 1, TURN 2 A BIG ONE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 07:00 PM FOR MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY #NASCAR #NationalDebtRelief250
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE CRASH WARNING NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE PHILADELPHIA PA 04:56 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2026 THE NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE IN PHILADELPHIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE CRASH WARNING FOR. . . MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY * UNTIL 05:01 PM AT 04:56 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2026 A SEVERE CRASH WAS OBSERVED NEAR TURNS 1-2 HAZARD... 1-4 CAR CRASH. SOURCE... OBSERVED IMPACT... CAR DAMAGE IS LIKELY. DAMAGE TO SAFER BARRIERS IS POSSIBLE. FIRES ARE POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TURN 1, TURN 2 A BIG ONE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 07:00 PM FOR MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY #NASCAR #NationalDebtRelief250
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED BIG ONE WARNING NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE PHILADELPHIA PA 04:42 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2026 THE NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE IN PHILADELPHIA HAS ISSUED A * BIG ONE WARNING FOR. . . MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY * UNTIL 04:47 PM AT 04:42 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2026 A LARGE MULTI-CAR CRASH WAS OBSERVED NEAR TURNS 1-2 HAZARD... 5-10 CAR CRASH. SOURCE... OBSERVED IMPACT... CAR DAMAGE IS LIKELY. DAMAGE TO SAFER BARRIERS IS POSSIBLE. FIRES ARE POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TURN 1, TURN 2 A BIG ONE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 07:00 PM FOR MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY BIG ONE DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE #NASCAR #NationalDebtRelief250
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE CRASH WARNING NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE PHILADELPHIA PA 04:36 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2026 THE NATIONAL CRASH SERVICE IN PHILADELPHIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE CRASH WARNING FOR. . . MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY * UNTIL 04:41 PM AT 04:36 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2026 A SEVERE CRASH WAS OBSERVED NEAR TURNS 3-4 HAZARD... 1-4 CAR CRASH. SOURCE... OBSERVED IMPACT... CAR DAMAGE IS LIKELY. DAMAGE TO SAFER BARRIERS IS POSSIBLE. FIRES ARE POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TURN 3, TURN 4 A BIG ONE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 07:00 PM FOR MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY #NASCAR #NationalDebtRelief250
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED BIG ONE WATCH NUMBER 209 NCS SEVERE CRASH PREDICTION CENTER PHILADELPHIA PA 04:15 PM EDT SATURDAY OCTOBER 31 2026 THE NCS SEVERE CRASH PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * BIG ONE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY FROM 04:15 PM UNTIL 07:00 PM. * PRIMARY CONCERNS INCLUDE... SEVERE CRASHES AND SOME SIGNIFICANT MULTI-CAR CRASHES INCLUDING UP TO 10 CARS POSSIBLE. SUMMARY... RACING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR INCIDENTS THROUGH THE 07:00 PM EXPIRATION TIME. DRIVERS SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN NAVIGATING THROUGH THE WATCH AREA. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A BIG ONE WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE CRASHES INCLUDING BIG ONES IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. ALTHOUGH SEVERE CRASHES MAY NOT BE IMMINENT, PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING RACING CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS && #NASCAR #NationalDebtRelief250
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