@NeutralZoneLabs

Run your own NFL simulations, even mid-game when lineups change. Compare projections to props and prediction markets. Data, not advice. Built by @Duilen.

 Denver, CO
neutralzonelabs.com
Joined September 2026
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Matthew Stafford reached 40,000 passing yards in 147 games, the fewest of any quarterback whose career began in 1999 or later. Brees took 152, Rodgers 153, Brady 162. Compare 50 QB careers, game by game: neutralzonelabs.com/nfl-char…
Line chart: NFL quarterback career comparison, passing yards measured against Tom Brady (flat line at zero) by career game, for the 50 quarterbacks with the most regular-season passing yards whose careers began in 1999 or later. Highlighted: Mahomes, about 6,000 yards ahead of Brady's pace through 130 games; Stafford, ahead the whole way and about 2,000 ahead at game 243; Brees, ahead from game 180 on and about 5,400 ahead at the end; Rodgers, ahead early and about 2,800 behind by game 268. Neutral Zone Labs, nflverse data through week 5, 2026.

ALT Line chart: NFL quarterback career comparison, passing yards measured against Tom Brady (flat line at zero) by career game, for the 50 quarterbacks with the most regular-season passing yards whose careers began in 1999 or later. Highlighted: Mahomes, about 6,000 yards ahead of Brady's pace through 130 games; Stafford, ahead the whole way and about 2,000 ahead at game 243; Brees, ahead from game 180 on and about 5,400 ahead at the end; Rodgers, ahead early and about 2,800 behind by game 268. Neutral Zone Labs, nflverse data through week 5, 2026.

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The Vikings are 5-0. Since 1999, 46 of 51 teams that started 5-0 made the playoffs. Two of the five that missed were Minnesota: 2003 (9-7) and 2016 (8-8).
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Our namesake penalty: neutral zone infractions peaked at 164 in 2015, then fell to 75 in 2025, the fewest since 2010. This year they're back up: 26 in 65 games, 0.40 a game vs 0.28 last season.
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Four of Justin Herbert's markets for today in Los Angeles, next to our simulation. How Justin gets there: 1. Denver ruled out both starting corners, Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss 2. Denver has allowed 245 passing yards a game, 11th-most 3. Tre Harris leads the team with 21 targets and 209 yards 4. He ran for 29 and 40 yards in two of his four games What stands in the way: 1. Four rookies start on his line, and the Chargers already allow sacks at the 7th-highest rate 2. In 2025 the offense played at a top-5 level with Joe Alt on the field, 27th without him 3. Quentin Johnston and Ladd McConkey drew 31% of his targets this year 4. His high this season is 226 passing yards, with 1 TD pass in each game Run your own simulation: neutralzonelabs.com Data, not advice.
Simulation card: Justin Herbert to get 201+ yards passing, DEN at LAC. Neutral Zone Labs, 5,000 games, run 10/11 09:53 ET, margin ±1.4pp. Passing yards 0 to 500: 43.3% of games under 201, 56.7% at 201 or more. FanDuel ≥ 201: 53.1%.

ALT Simulation card: Justin Herbert to get 201+ yards passing, DEN at LAC. Neutral Zone Labs, 5,000 games, run 10/11 09:53 ET, margin ±1.4pp. Passing yards 0 to 500: 43.3% of games under 201, 56.7% at 201 or more. FanDuel ≥ 201: 53.1%.

Simulation card: Justin Herbert to get 25+ yards rushing, DEN at LAC. Neutral Zone Labs, 5,000 games, run 10/11 09:53 ET, margin ±1.4pp. Rushing yards 0 to 100: 57.9% of games under 25, 42.1% at 25 or more. Kalshi < 25: 49.5%, Kalshi ≥ 25: 50.5%.

ALT Simulation card: Justin Herbert to get 25+ yards rushing, DEN at LAC. Neutral Zone Labs, 5,000 games, run 10/11 09:53 ET, margin ±1.4pp. Rushing yards 0 to 100: 57.9% of games under 25, 42.1% at 25 or more. Kalshi < 25: 49.5%, Kalshi ≥ 25: 50.5%.

Simulation card: Justin Herbert to get 3+ passing touchdowns, DEN at LAC. Neutral Zone Labs, 5,000 games, run 10/11 09:53 ET, margin ±0.8pp. Passing touchdowns 0 to 6: 91.0% of games under 3, 9.0% at 3 or more. DraftKings ≥ 3: 11.8%.

ALT Simulation card: Justin Herbert to get 3+ passing touchdowns, DEN at LAC. Neutral Zone Labs, 5,000 games, run 10/11 09:53 ET, margin ±0.8pp. Passing touchdowns 0 to 6: 91.0% of games under 3, 9.0% at 3 or more. DraftKings ≥ 3: 11.8%.

Simulation card: Justin Herbert to get 350+ yards passing, DEN at LAC. Neutral Zone Labs, 5,000 games, run 10/11 09:53 ET, margin ±0.6pp. Passing yards 0 to 500: 95.1% of games under 350, 4.9% at 350 or more. DraftKings ≥ 350: 4.9%.

ALT Simulation card: Justin Herbert to get 350+ yards passing, DEN at LAC. Neutral Zone Labs, 5,000 games, run 10/11 09:53 ET, margin ±0.6pp. Passing yards 0 to 500: 95.1% of games under 350, 4.9% at 350 or more. DraftKings ≥ 350: 4.9%.

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Four of Bucky Irving's markets for tonight in Dallas, next to our simulation. How Bucky gets there: 1. He has 78% of Tampa's RB carries, with 15+ carries in 3 of 4 games 2. Tampa leans on the run: 26th in neutral early-down pass rate over expected 3. Dallas allows 123.5 rushing yards a game, 3rd-most 4. 2+ catches in 3 of 4 games, 13 receptions in all What stands in the way: 1. He's cleared 50 rushing yards in 2 of 4 games (45, 89, 46, 61) 2. Against RBs, Dallas is average: 4.0 yards per carry allowed, 17th 3. Dallas allows just 3.0 catches a game to RBs, 4th-fewest 4. Dallas leads the NFL in points per drive (3.3), a game script that can cut into carries Run your own simulation: neutralzonelabs.com Data, not advice.
Simulation card: Bucky Irving to get 50+ yards rushing, TB at DAL. Neutral Zone Labs, 5,000 games, run 10/8 11:33 ET, margin ±1.3pp. Rushing yards 0 to 200: 37.2% of games under 50, 62.8% at 50 or more. Kalshi < 50: 46.5%. Kalshi ≥ 50: 53.5%.

ALT Simulation card: Bucky Irving to get 50+ yards rushing, TB at DAL. Neutral Zone Labs, 5,000 games, run 10/8 11:33 ET, margin ±1.3pp. Rushing yards 0 to 200: 37.2% of games under 50, 62.8% at 50 or more. Kalshi < 50: 46.5%. Kalshi ≥ 50: 53.5%.

Simulation card: Bucky Irving to get 14+ carries, TB at DAL. Neutral Zone Labs, 5,000 games, run 10/8 11:33 ET, margin ±1.4pp. Carries 0 to 35: 46.0% of games under 14, 54.0% at 14 or more. Kalshi < 14: 54.5%. Kalshi ≥ 14: 45.5%.

ALT Simulation card: Bucky Irving to get 14+ carries, TB at DAL. Neutral Zone Labs, 5,000 games, run 10/8 11:33 ET, margin ±1.4pp. Carries 0 to 35: 46.0% of games under 14, 54.0% at 14 or more. Kalshi < 14: 54.5%. Kalshi ≥ 14: 45.5%.

Simulation card: Bucky Irving to get 2+ receptions, TB at DAL. Neutral Zone Labs, 5,000 games, run 10/8 11:33 ET, margin ±1.2pp. Receptions 0 to 10: 24.1% of games under 2, 75.9% at 2 or more. Kalshi < 2: 34.0%. Kalshi ≥ 2: 66.0%.

ALT Simulation card: Bucky Irving to get 2+ receptions, TB at DAL. Neutral Zone Labs, 5,000 games, run 10/8 11:33 ET, margin ±1.2pp. Receptions 0 to 10: 24.1% of games under 2, 75.9% at 2 or more. Kalshi < 2: 34.0%. Kalshi ≥ 2: 66.0%.

Simulation card: Bucky Irving to get 30+ yards rushing, TB at DAL. Neutral Zone Labs, 5,000 games, run 10/8 11:33 ET, margin ±1.0pp. Rushing yards 0 to 200: 16.1% of games under 30, 83.9% at 30 or more. Kalshi < 30: 16.5%. Kalshi ≥ 30: 83.5%.

ALT Simulation card: Bucky Irving to get 30+ yards rushing, TB at DAL. Neutral Zone Labs, 5,000 games, run 10/8 11:33 ET, margin ±1.0pp. Rushing yards 0 to 200: 16.1% of games under 30, 83.9% at 30 or more. Kalshi < 30: 16.5%. Kalshi ≥ 30: 83.5%.

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The Giants beat Arizona by 12 with a 31.7% success rate. Since 2017, 21 teams have won by 10+ with a rate that low, and none scored more than the Giants' 36. Success rate: the share of plays that left the offense better positioned to score than before the snap.
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Alvin Kamara gets Atlanta at home on Monday night. Four of his markets, next to our simulation: How he gets there: 1. Travis Etienne, who had 31 of the Saints' 75 designed carries, is on injured reserve 2. 40+ rushing yards in 37 of 55 games since 2022 3. 4+ catches in 33 of 55 4. 90.5 scrimmage yards a game at home since 2022 What stands in the way: 1. Atlanta allows 3.06 yards a carry, fewest in the NFL 2. Atlanta hasn't allowed a rushing touchdown this season 3. 12 receiving yards in his 2 games this year 4. A touchdown in 12 of 55 games since 2022 Run your own simulations at neutralzonelabs.com
Simulation card: Alvin Kamara to get 40+ yards rushing, ATL at NO. Neutral Zone Labs, 5,000 games, run 10/5 16:45 ET, margin ±1.4pp. Rushing yards 0 to 180: 43.2% of games under 40, 56.8% at 40 or more. FanDuel ≥ 40: 50.0%.

ALT Simulation card: Alvin Kamara to get 40+ yards rushing, ATL at NO. Neutral Zone Labs, 5,000 games, run 10/5 16:45 ET, margin ±1.4pp. Rushing yards 0 to 180: 43.2% of games under 40, 56.8% at 40 or more. FanDuel ≥ 40: 50.0%.

Simulation card: Alvin Kamara to get 16+ yards receiving, ATL at NO. Neutral Zone Labs, 5,000 games, run 10/5 16:45 ET, margin ±1.3pp. Receiving yards 0 to 100: 33.9% of games under 16, 66.1% at 16 or more. FanDuel ≥ 16: 53.3%.

ALT Simulation card: Alvin Kamara to get 16+ yards receiving, ATL at NO. Neutral Zone Labs, 5,000 games, run 10/5 16:45 ET, margin ±1.3pp. Receiving yards 0 to 100: 33.9% of games under 16, 66.1% at 16 or more. FanDuel ≥ 16: 53.3%.

Simulation card: Alvin Kamara to get 4+ receptions, ATL at NO. Neutral Zone Labs, 5,000 games, run 10/5 16:45 ET, margin ±1.4pp. Receptions 0 to 12: 38.8% of games under 4, 61.2% at 4 or more. FanDuel ≥ 4: 43.9%.

ALT Simulation card: Alvin Kamara to get 4+ receptions, ATL at NO. Neutral Zone Labs, 5,000 games, run 10/5 16:45 ET, margin ±1.4pp. Receptions 0 to 12: 38.8% of games under 4, 61.2% at 4 or more. FanDuel ≥ 4: 43.9%.

Simulation card: Alvin Kamara to get 1+ touchdowns scored, ATL at NO. Neutral Zone Labs, 5,000 games, run 10/5 16:45 ET, margin ±1.3pp. Touchdowns 0 to 3: 69.2% of games with none, 30.8% with 1 or more. FanDuel ≥ 1: 46.5%.

ALT Simulation card: Alvin Kamara to get 1+ touchdowns scored, ATL at NO. Neutral Zone Labs, 5,000 games, run 10/5 16:45 ET, margin ±1.3pp. Touchdowns 0 to 3: 69.2% of games with none, 30.8% with 1 or more. FanDuel ≥ 1: 46.5%.

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Miami has played 16 quarters this season without holding a lead. The leaderboard since 1999: 1. 2005 Texans: 24 2. 2017 Browns: 18 3. 2001 Lions: 17 4. 2026 Dolphins: 16 (and counting) 5. 2003 Bears: 15 T6. 2003 Bengals: 14 T6. 2021 Jets: 14 8. 1999 Falcons: 13 T9. 10 teams: 12 Regular season, OT counts as a quarter, a tie isn't a lead.
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Week 3 had 810 snaps from under center, up from 602 in Week 3 last year. That's 41% of all plays, up from 31%.
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Chicago ran 86 offensive plays to the Jets' 32. Last season, only one team ran fewer than 32 in a game: the Raiders, with 30 at Kansas City.
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My wife: Dan Cambell looks like he is about to blow a fuse.
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xitter.cf/i/nfl/game/20550870767…
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This season, the team with the better EPA per play has won 53 of 62 games. The team with the better success rate has won 39 of 62.
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Through three weeks the Vikings ranked 28th in offensive EPA per play and 1st on defense. The 2015 Broncos finished 26th and 1st, started 4-0, and won the Super Bowl.
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The Giants scored 36 on a 32% success rate. Four of their six scoring drives started in Arizona territory, and a defensive touchdown did the rest.
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Rams-Eagles was the most lopsided of today's early games by EPA per play: LA +0.06, PHI -0.29. The Rams still had to come back from 3.2% win probability.
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The Packers OL doesn't look great. I should look into the data. I don't know if they have ever been at the bottom of the league statistically.
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Gemini says they have never been the dead-last OL prior to 2026. They had a few tough years in 2009 and 2005. But you have to go back to the 80s to see continuous ineffective play. I'm not convinced this will continue in 2026.
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And they just allowed an ugly blocked FG...
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