Unc • Finance is both a profession and a hobby • Shill buster • FAFO aficionado • NFA, obviously.
Joined July 2025
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Here we go again.
#Gold patiently waiting on the $4,000 line for Warsh to signal if he's prepared to maintain positive real interest rates as inflation remains persistent.
Or whether the Fed will tolerate inflation in order to protect growth and financial markets.
#FOMC day.
🟠 “Possible leg up” kicked off for #Gold the day after this Xeet.
Bessent’s long-end containment attempt spiked the "financial conditions" I’d flagged as missing.
High RSI + above the 200SMA, so some consolidation is possible, but gold’s bottom looks in for now.
Unless a market liquidation event demands snap liquidity.
In today's installment of $ANT not getting the memo that “Generative AI is fundamentally unprofitable” ...
Less than a third of the compute bill was associated with paying customers.
Yet... their revenue nearly paid for @AnthropicAI's whole operation.
😎
@grok what might we infer from this analysis of Anthrophic's S-1 when it comes to xAI’s approach of being vertically integrated - building and owning Colossus, training Grok on it, and also renting capacity out - including to Anthropic?
Was a good day to go shopping in #Brazil today.
🇧🇷 ... 💸
Brazilian stocks are puking overnight because Lula won.
Quality names are pulling back to levels below their pre-1st round surge.
Keep an eye on the real and rate futures, along with what gets sold:
• $XP, $BBD, and $SBS: internal growth concerns
• $VALE, $SUZ, and $GGB (exporters): general discount
Brazilian stocks are puking overnight because Lula won.
Quality names are pulling back to levels below their pre-1st round surge.
Keep an eye on the real and rate futures, along with what gets sold:
• $XP, $BBD, and $SBS: internal growth concerns
• $VALE, $SUZ, and $GGB (exporters): general discount
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva came from behind to win Brazil’s runoff election, halting a right-wing wave sweeping Latin America and defying predictions that the 80-year-old political veteran had finally reached the end of his extraordinary career. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The Ni (f. Obsequious Knight of the Realm of ...) retweeted
Short Interest?
Sports Illustrated?
Slovenia?
Système International d'Unités?
Use your words, ya wannabe edgelord.
The Ni (f. Obsequious Knight of the Realm of ...) retweeted
Most businesses do not have this problem of "decaying cash assets on the BS" .. there is rapid turnover of the cash to fund productive activities.
This fake "problem" allows zombie companies to use their corporate shell to set up a closed loop leveraged ETF.
And you just bought their bullshit narrative.
Btw, books >> YT, @Deezy_vz .
.@CJ_Bitcoin doubling BPS over 7 years implies a ~10% sweetener on top of #Bitcoin’s performance.
+10% is not sufficient compensation for @saylor-risk.
If that’s the best you can do, you should probably close up shop and encourage folks to just buy Bitcoin, or one of the faster horses.
The 50 SMA held, and RSI looks constructive.
🎯 The megaphone’s upper trendline points to ~90K as the next possible target if the 20SMA is breached to the upside.
The #Bitcoin pullback is still underway.
20SMA has been resistance all along.
All eyes on the 50SMA now, in case it fails as the support it has been for the last 10 days.
$ASST looking decent, with the warrant overhang gone.
This could be a decent place to launch from, given the 50% retrace to the 50SMA and lowly RSI.
Bitcoin allowing, ofc.
$SPCX has held up surprisingly well through multiple unlocks so far.
Nevertheless, two sizeable ones are coming up:
• Oct 22: 1.31B shares (9.7% of OS)
• Oct 26: 328M shares (2.4% of OS)
These add 12.1% on top of the current 21.3% unlocked, equivalent to ~57% of the existing float.
Worth a 🧐.
🔓 Second tranche of 319M $SPCX shares (7% of total shares) unlocks today (Aug 20).
Price is consolidating and RSI is starting to show weakness.
🔻 Time to start going the other way again?
The #Bitcoin pullback is still underway.
20SMA has been resistance all along.
All eyes on the 50SMA now, in case it fails as the support it has been for the last 10 days.
#Bitcoin has respected that megaphone thus far.
Should this pullback continue - which it could, all the way to the 200 SMA and the bottom of the megaphone, while still preserving the overall bullish trend - it may be worth noting that $IBIT puts look cheap both on a historical basis and relative to calls.
The liquidity trace continues to pull back into late October as well. Low-confidence signal though, since it hasn’t worked for the last month.
(Vol smile graphic from @spotgamma.)
.@CJ_Bitcoin, not really.
• A bit late for “looks like distress” - STRC was born with an ultra-junk coupon
• Some of the “other tools” impose direct, irreparable costs on $MSTR holders [1]
• Prevarication only benefits your competition
Btw, professionals >> ChatGPT.
[1] teapaw.org/NitherDither/status/21…
Why didn't we just raise the $STRC dividend above 12%?
Past a certain point, a higher rate stops adding demand. It can look like distress and push buyers away from the whole complex. So we leaned on other tools.
