Investor | policy | politics | Geopolitics | Defence | AI | Observer & Commentator | Critic | stay curious वीर भोग्या वसुंधरा
India
Joined February 2019
- Tweets27.2K
- Following992
- Followers28K
- Likes23.6K
Pinned Tweet
This Week of Market Outlook is Now Published :)
Read about many businesses, a few I liked this week, and some interesting IPOs that matter. You'll also get an idea of where the money is flowing, along with the India Market Health Report.
normalguy.co.in/post/market-…
EU allows 0.01 mg per kg of tricyclazole in rice. India allows 3.0 mg per kg, putting its safe level 300x above EU limits
From 2015 to 2025, tricyclazole set off 97 food safety warnings on Indian rice. Thiamethoxam added another 60 warnings. 69% of EU rice failures come from pesticide traces. Farmers use what Indian rules approve. Port labs clear them, EU labs reject them, because both sides measure safe differently.
Record $12.5bn in rice exports changes nothing. Your safe sits 300x above your buyer’s safe
India non basmati rejections in EU rose from 3 in 2020 to 37 in 2024. Pakistan went opposite way, from 54 down to 2. India’s failure rate climbed 12x while Pakistan brought its down by 96%. Both countries grow similar rice, face same EU rules.
Pakistan started testing at farm level. India still tests at port. When container fails, nobody traces which farm grew that rice. India shipped 124k tonnes to EU in 2019, now ships 262k. More volume means more rejections.
Pakistan fixes quality while India ships volume.
APEDA approved 126 labs for rice export testing. Only 50 can test pesticide residue, just 47 on FSSAI books. GMO testing runs from Delhi and Hyderabad only, so exporters in Punjab ship samples hundreds of km before clearing cargo.
Rice passes from farmer to middleman to trader to processor. Spray records end at first sale. 86% of farmers work on plots smaller than 2 hectares. BasmatiNet tags fields with GPS but covers 200k tonnes yearly.
Basmati exports cross 4m tonnes, leaving gap of 20x. Fix starts at soil, not port
Sunflag total market value sits near ₹7,400 crore right now. It owns 11.89% of Lloyds Metals, worth roughly ₹11,900 crore at current prices
So market is pricing Sunflag own steel business at negative ₹4,500 crore that same steel business earned ₹3,956 crore in revenue last year with 12% operating margins. Loans went from ₹270 crore down to ₹155 crore. Cash from operations doubled to ₹390 crore. CRISIL gave it AA minus rating with stable outlook.
When company is worth less than what it holds, somebody is not counting right
Sunfla FY24 annual report talked about car parts, round bars, and steel for engineering use. Latest report from FY26 looks nothing like it. Company now has Electro Slag Refining, Vacuum Induction Melting, and Vacuum Arc Remelting, processes that make metals for fighter jets, space rockets, and nuclear power plants.
In just one year, it created Inconel 625, AMS 6509, valve steel 21 4N, and 17CrNiMo6 for forging. Japan’s Daido Steel invested equity in 2014 and shares aerospace metal science. Reports do not change this fast without board vision changing first.
India made ₹1.78 lakh crore worth of defence goods last fiscal year. Private companies produced 24% of that, their highest recorded share. Defence ministry proposed giving 10% extra weight to locally made alloys in new buying rules.
Government set aside ₹6,322 crore for specialty steel under PLI. Sunflag got approved as vendor by VSSC, LPSC, HAL, BrahMos, DRDO, DRDL, NPCIL, Collins Aerospace, GE Gas Power, Adani Defence, and Solar Industries.
That list covers space, nuclear, missiles, and global buyers in one company. Getting such approvals takes years of testing.
Shitty music. I don't know what these guys are smoking, but it would have been much better if they had chosen competent writers and composers instead of this
Not a single song impressed me. First, they started copying stories, and now they've started copying entire old compositions without even trying to add a touch of originality
And bringing Hans Zimmer into an Indian movie like Ramayana? Indian music has its own traditional essence, cultural depth, and emotions. How will he fully understand the emotional connection that Indian composers have with our traditions? And putting Qawwali in Ramayana?
WTF, man! How can you mess this up so badly?
It almost feels like they're intentionally trying to create controversy. Even someone with basic common sense should understand this.
Well, above all, intention matters, and here, the whole approach feels careless to me.
Rang hai rang hai Mangal rang hai, Prem ke rangon ka sangam
Song out now 🕉️
bit.ly/MangalRangHindi
Buying Properties in India is like Hard Game Anyday yu get scammed and Regulators Don't care Much :)
The worst investment I did is buying a property of Godrej- big brand bigger, bigger fraud.
Bought a property in 2023, they told we will get possession in 2026 mid, forget the possession, they are telling they want to add additional floors and that too 8-9 floors, without adding any extra plot to the project.
From past 3 months the CRMs has bullied, disturbed, bribed and what not for us to sign the consent form to modify the RERA, as a person who works a full time job, this kind of harassment takes a toll on mental health, as now I am paying full EMI and possession not sure when they are going to give(maybe 2028(Rera date)), the constructions they have left in mid. For Phase1 owners also they are pushing the handover deadline.
This is so disappointing! and now I am stuck, so whenever you decide to buy a property in Godrej, think 100 times before.
Normal Guy retweeted
Building an "Axis of Influence," Creating an "Axis of Resistance"
Last week’s state visit by Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu to Pakistan, where he held discussions with de facto ruler Asim Munir and signed 20 agreements spanning defense, maritime security, cybersecurity, AI and intelligence sharing, has raised significant geopolitical red flags in New Delhi.
It signals that, despite India’s overtures and concessions (including bilateral bailouts, debt extensions and currency swaps to shore up the Maldivian economy), the Islamist-leaning Muizzu has not fully abandoned the anti-India plank that helped catapult him to power. He took office in November 2023 after campaigning on an “India Out” platform.
As president, Muizzu has softened his public rhetoric toward India. But after securing critical financial lifelines from New Delhi for his cash-strapped country, he concluded free-trade agreements with China and Turkey.
Muizzu’s agreements with Islamabad, including commitments to deepen defense and intelligence ties with Pakistan, underscore that his underlying strategy remains one of strategic hedging against India.
Bringing Pakistan into defense capacity-building in the Indian Ocean, where the Maldives sits astride key sea lines of communication (SLOCs), directly challenges India’s strategic depth and naval surveillance in its immediate neighborhood.
As a hedge against India, Muizzu appears to be facilitating a Sino-Pakistani “Axis of Influence” along the SLOCs in the Maldives’ strategic periphery. This could be viewed in New Delhi as an attempt to construct an “Axis of Resistance” against India.
Normal Guy retweeted
Brazil voted Lula back in on Sunday, 51.8% to 48.2%. In thin overnight trading the real fell about 9%, and a Tokyo-listed Brazil ETF opened down 11%.
Does this change why I own Brazil? Not much.
I hold Brazil for three reasons.
1) It is one of the cheapest large stock markets in the world.
2) It is a commodity exporter and can benefit from a commodity supercycle.
3) Its real interest rate, the policy rate minus inflation, is close to 9%. You get paid well to wait.
Both were true before the first round. Then Flávio Bolsonaro’s surprise lead sent stocks up 7.7% to a record. That jump was a bet on reform, even though Flávio had rejected pension reform. That is the part now coming off.
A Lula win probably keeps spending higher and hence rates higher for longer. So the 'rate-cut' catalyst looks more uncertain. The Brazilian Congress though leans right and can block him. One has to wait and watch.
The flow of MONEY in last 2 Week :)
Market Outlook for the Last Two Weeks is Now Live!
I couldn't cover last week because of Durga Puja, so this edition combines updates from both weeks. Not much excitement this time, a rather boring couple of weeks, but still some interesting developments worth reading.
normalguy.co.in/post/market-…
Market Outlook for the Last Two Weeks is Now Live!
I couldn't cover last week because of Durga Puja, so this edition combines updates from both weeks. Not much excitement this time, a rather boring couple of weeks, but still some interesting developments worth reading.
normalguy.co.in/post/market-…
Idealist of this Week is Now live :)
In the current market, I believe risk management and stock selection will matter more than ever
normalguy.co.in/post/idealis…
Yttrium oxide costs $7.90 per kg inside China and $441 outside that is 55 times more for same material, Before April 2025, prices were similar everywhere
China made 270,000 of 390,000 tons of rare earth oxides in 2025, which is 69% of global total that lead came from decades of separation investment western countries skipped.
Digging yttrium is simple but processing it needs plants that barely exist outside China.
Lynas in Australia, ReElement in US, and South Africa at Phalaborwa are all starting yttrium projects. Combined output stays tiny against 10,000 to 15,000 tonnes in annual global demand
Yttrium has no replacement in chips, lasers, or jet engine coatings. New supply needs years nobody has
China became largest car exporting country in 2023, overtaking Japan. Gap keeps widening every quarter.
But stock prices tell different story. Chinese auto stocks have lagged global auto stocks since early 2023.
Markets price what sales charts miss. Industry margins halved between Q1 and Q2 this year. Mining and battery companies grabbed most of profit, with mining margins at 20.5% while car assembly earns low single digits.
India used 2.1m tonnes of copper in FY26, growing 12% over last year that growth was faster than GDP at 7.7%
Many talks about data centers needing copper. In India, data centers made up less than 1% of total copper use. Biggest demand came from building roads, bridges, and power lines, where copper use grew 29%. Cars and trucks followed with 14% growth after slow FY25
Copper demand in India is growing because of construction work, not data center hype. Not watch wrong part of market
Government released copper vision paper saying India will need 4 to 5m tonnes of copper per year by 2035. Right now India uses 2.1m tonnes. By 2047, need reaches 9 to 10m tonnes
India made only 0.7m tonnes of refined copper at home in FY26. Only 1 government company mines copper here, covering just 4% of what country needs. Sterlite closure in 2018 removed 56% of refining output.
Government paper admits India may import 91 to 97% of copper raw material by 2047, Domestic mining cannot fill that gap
world copper supply will fall 10m tonnes short of demand by 2040. Mining output peaks near 2030 at 33m tonnes. Demand reaches 42m tonnes same decade. New mine takes 17 years on average from discovery to first output
India alone needs equivalent of 1 giant new mine every year for next 20 years. Biggest copper mine in Congo pushed its own target back by full year.
World is not opening enough new mines. India has not begun facing how large its own supply gap will get.
So what next - Recycle or find the alternative Aluminum or something else
India’s copper demand grew 12% to 2.1 million metric tons in the year to March 2026, outpacing the country’s 7.7% GDP growth.
Data centers made up less than 1% of it, according to the International Copper Association India.
Infrastructure led instead, rising 29% and accounting for 22% of domestic consumption. Automotive demand rose 14% after a sluggish FY2025.
Growth accelerated from 9.3% the year before.
Source: ICA India via The Economic Times
From Britain, where Microsoft walked away from a $2.7 billion site because the grid connection slipped into the 2030s
America fired about as many Patriot interceptors in 7 months as it received in 19 years, and lost or damaged 81 aircraft.
this is why America has delayed Patriot transfers to Ukraine and why missile makers are booming, and why CME Group plans the first futures market for tungsten, a metal used in weapons
Losses - 81 aircraft include 45 Reaper drones, 12 F-15E fighters and 1 F-35A
Saudi Arabia said to have used about 2,400 of its 2,800 Patriot interceptors
RTX - record order book of $340 billion after $81 billion of new awards
If yu want to know Why Apple hiked price, Why Xi Jinping went to North Korea, & Why Indian PM met Myanmar military gov’t leader
China, which has the world largest tungsten reserves, used to export raw ore, Now it is importing huge volumes of raw tungsten ore and concentrates from Global South countries.
The goal is to process them domestically into higher-value products (like powders, carbides, and tools) for export or domestic high-tech use.
Look at what China is doing with tungsten in 2026, Importing raw ore from Kazakhstan, Myanmar, North Korea, Bolivia, Rwanda. 91.5% of imports by value are unprocessed concentrates.
At same time, its tungsten carbide exports rose 150% between February and April 2026, Import raw, export processed. APT exports collapsed 70% since February 2025.
Processing capacity outside China is less than 20,000 tonnes against China 200,000 plus. This is not about restricting exports. This is about becoming only place on earth that can refine tungsten.
China imported 123 MT of tungsten hexafluoride between February and May 2026. WF6 is a gas needed to deposit thin metal layers inside every advanced chip. Two Japanese WF6 producers, Kanto Denka and Central Glass, just announced permanent shutdown from July 1 because China cut off their tungsten powder supply.
Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC directly affected. Price up 200% year on year. No substitute exists for sub-7nm chips. China buys WF6 for its own fabs while denying raw material to everyone who makes it.
North Korea shows up as China third biggest tungsten supplier. $80.9M worth in just four months of 2026. UN Security Council resolutions ban North Korean mineral exports. That data is sitting in Chinese customs records.
US plans to bar Chinese, Russian, Iranian, North Korean tungsten from defense procurement starting January 2027. But once North Korean ore enters Chinese smelters, tungsten carbide that comes out carries no trace of where raw material came from.
Sanctions assume traceability that does not exist in mineral processing.
At the same time, China is still importing some high-end finished products like tungsten hexafluoride (WF6) - critical for semiconductor manufacturing and tungsten carbide.
North Korea as a top-3 supplier ($80.9M / 1,070 MT in just 4 months). Tungsten is one of North Korea biggest exports by value, and almost all of it goes to China. This creates a sanctions-exposed part of the supply chain.
Kazakhstan dominance - It became the single largest source by far in this period. China is locking in supply from Central Asia and processing it at home.
Still importing high-end materials - Even while building massive domestic capacity, China continues to buy WF6 (for chips) and some carbide. This shows gaps in ultra-high-purity or specific grades.
Global ripple effect from China export curbs - Since Feb 2025, China tightened export licensing on tungsten and compounds (further restricted in 2025–26, with only 15 authorized exporters for 2026–27). This caused Sharp drop in China exports of tungsten powder and APT
WF6 prices surging over 200% YoY in some markets.
Japanese WF6 producers (important global suppliers for AI chipmaking) facing raw material shortages and reportedly cutting output in H2 2026
Speed of the shift - Despite having the biggest reserves, China is now one of the largest importers of raw tungsten ore. This is classic resource nationalism + industrial upgrading
Chokepoint risk is real. Mining diversification is happening (projects in Kazakhstan, Rwanda, Australia, etc., with Western funding), but processing (especially high-purity for semiconductors and defense-grade materials) is much harder and slower to replicate.
Direct impact on AI chip production via WF6 shortage and price spike.
Tungsten is critical for kinetic energy penetrators, armor-piercing rounds, and high-performance alloys. Secure non-Chinese supply (or reliable processing) is now a national security priority in many countries.
The North Korea link adds another layer of complexity.
Supply Chain War Phase 1
