Sara 🎯

1/ $ASTS: 🚨 BERENBERG INITIATES RESEARCH COVERAGE OF AST SPACEMOBILE WITH A BUY RATING AND $92 PRICE TARGET The carriers’ constellation; initiate at Buy A winning space-based direct-to-device strategy: AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is the only company to have demonstrated true cellular broadband from space to unmodified smartphones. It approaches commercial operations in 2027 with pieces its competitors lack, including 60+ mobile network operator (MNO) partnerships covering c3bn subscribers, premium low-band access plus owned L-band and S-band spectrum, and a growing government/defence franchise. The key to the story is that ASTS complements rather than competes with carriers like AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone and Rakuten. We see asymmetric risk-reward, with rapid revenue growth at extraordinary margins once continuous service launches in 2027 and multiple catalysts along the way. We initiate with a Buy rating and $92 price target. A locked-in carrier ecosystem covering c3bn subscribers: ASTS has more than 60 MNO partnerships, with definitive commercial agreements signed with AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone and others globally. Exclusivity in the US and Europe, shared low-band spectrum, and carrier-funded ground infrastructure make these partnerships sticky and self-reinforcing so long as ASTS delivers, which we believe it can. Carriers view direct-to-device as complementary coverage providing incremental high-margin revenue and the best defence against Starlink disintermediation. A spectrum moat underpins the model: ASTS holds usage rights to 45MHz of Ligado mid-band L-band spectrum in the US plus 60MHz of licensed S-band, alongside access to its MNO partners’ premium low-band. Launch is the near-term bottleneck, but spectrum is the long-term binding constraint in direct-to-device. The revenue-share model gives ASTS premium licensed low-band without buying it, which is an asset Starlink has had to acquire at great cost or chase by becoming a carrier itself. Carriers contribute their most strategic asset precisely because ASTS does not disintermediate them, making the ecosystem both a distribution channel and a moat that is structurally difficult to replicate. An exponential revenue and profitability inflection: We expect AST to reach 45+ BlueBird satellites enabling continuous service in key markets by mid-2027, supporting revenue of c$655m in 2027, scaling to $4.5bn in 2030 at 75%+ EBITDA margins. That may look aggressive, but it requires paid uptake from less than 3.5% of partner subscribers. Take rates of c30% in North America, 10% in Europe and Japan, and 4% elsewhere would drive a potential $9bn revenue opportunity by 2035 at 80%+ EBITDA margins. A story rich with potential positive catalysts: Catalysts include the finalised award of Japan-LEO, a formalised JV between T-Mobile and ASTS partners AT&T and Verizon for direct-to-device, a potential agreement between ASTS and T-Mobile, launch updates, new government contracts, the start of beta service, and spectrum announcements (eg Grain Management). Valuation: We value ASTS on 15x 2030 EBITDA discounted back at 15%.