📈 Polling 📊 Seat Projections ⚖️ Analysis of European electoral politics | @JoshHousden
Europe
Joined July 2023
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Countries that are covered by @Nowcast_EU projection models (24/11/2025)
🟩 - We try to update at least once or twice a month
🟧 - Timing of updates is subject to polling frequency
New additions: 🇧🇬 Bulgaria, 🇸🇮 Slovenia, 🇪🇪 Estonia
Nowcast EU 🗳️ retweeted
🟢 What does the best possible result look like for AA in Andalusia? At least one seat in 6/8 constituencies is my guess.
Almería and Jaén would be a stretch based on current polling.
#29N
🇪🇸 Spain | Asturias constituency seat projection — November 11, 2026
🟦 PP: 35.2% (3)
🟥 PSOE: 30.0% (3)
🟩 Vox: 19.9% (1)
—
🟧 FrA: 8.8%
🟪 Pod: 1.8%
🟫 SALF: 1.5%
#29N
🇬🇷 Greece | Legislative Election Nowcast update — November 11, 2026
➡️ ND: 117 (-2)
🟪 ELAS: 48 (=)
🟩 PSOK: 42 (+2)
*️⃣ EL: 21 (-6)
🟥 KKE: 19 (-2)
🟨 EgtD: 12 (-3)
🟪 PE: 11 (=)
⬛️ SE: 11 (NEW)
🟦 FL: 10 (=)
🟧 M25: 9 (=)
<——— 3% threshold ———>
+/- vs. September 2026
🇪🇸 Spain | Granada constituency seat projection — November 9, 2026
🟦 PP: 32.5% (3)
🟥 PSOE: 25.4% (2)
🟩 Vox: 23.0% (2)
—
🟩 AA: 7.4%
🟧 FrA: 6.1%
🟫 SALF: 2.3%
🟪 Pod: 1.3%
#29N
🇩🇪 Germany | Federal Election nowcast update — November 9, 2026
➡️ AfD: 28% | 201 (-5)
⬛ Union: 20% | 145 (+8)
🟩 GRN: 15% | 107 (-3)
🟥 SPD: 14% | 100 (+2)
🟪 Linke: 11% | 76 (-2)
—
🟨 FDP: 4.1% | 0 (=)
🟪 BSW: 2.8% | 0 (=)
+/- vs. October 22
Nowcast EU 🗳️ retweeted
🟣❌ Zero seats for Podemos?
Current polling suggests their only hope of winning seats as a single list is in Madrid
There's a fine margin between meeting the *effective* threshold for seat distribution here and the 3% legal threshold. Podemos could easily fall between the two.
🇪🇦 Spain | Congress of Deputies forecast — November 5, 2026
🟦 PP: 32% | 135
🟥 PSOE: 26% | 104
🟩 Vox: 19% | 68
🟧 FrA: 7% | 11
🟨 ERC: 2% | 9
🟩 EhB: 1% | 7
#️⃣ JxC: 1% | 6
⚖️ Majority: 176
📅 Upcoming election: November 29
Nowcast EU 🗳️ retweeted
Our latest forecast for the #29N Spanish general election. First since the formation of new alliances on the left, plus the inclusion of Adelante Andalucía — currently projected to gain 3 members of parliament
The PP+Vox majority 'cushion' is roughly 28 seats.
🇪🇦 Spain | Congress of Deputies forecast — November 5, 2026
🟦 PP: 32% | 135
🟥 PSOE: 26% | 104
🟩 Vox: 19% | 68
🟧 FrA: 7% | 11
🟨 ERC: 2% | 9
🟩 EhB: 1% | 7
#️⃣ JxC: 1% | 6
⚖️ Majority: 176
📅 Upcoming election: November 29
🇪🇦 Spain | Congress of Deputies forecast — November 5, 2026
🟦 PP: 32% | 135
🟥 PSOE: 26% | 104
🟩 Vox: 19% | 68
🟧 FrA: 7% | 11
🟨 ERC: 2% | 9
🟩 EhB: 1% | 7
#️⃣ JxC: 1% | 6
⚖️ Majority: 176
📅 Upcoming election: November 29
🇳🇱 Netherlands | House of Representatives nowcast update — October 30, 2026
🟥 PRO: 29 (+9)
⬛ PVV: 19 (-7)
⬛ JA21: 18 (+9)
🟩 D66: 15 (-11)
🟦 VVD: 14 (-8)
🟩 CDA: 13 (-5)
🟫 FvD: 12 (+5)
...
+/- vs. October 2025 election
🇫🇷 France | Presidential Election polling averages — October 23, 2026
Runoff scenarios:
⚫ Le Pen - 54.5%
🔵 Philippe - 45.5%
⚫ Le Pen - 55.4%
🔴 Glucksmann - 44.6%
⚫ Le Pen - 56.3%
🟡 Attal - 43.7%
⚫ Le Pen - 68.0%
🟣 Mélenchon - 32.0%
🇩🇪 Germany | Federal Election Nowcast update — October 22, 2026
➡️ AfD: 28% | 206 (+3)
⬛ Union: 19% | 137 (-1)
🟩 GRN: 15% | 110 (+1)
🟥 SPD: 14% | 98 (-2)
🟪 Linke: 11% | 78 (-1)
—
🟨 FDP: 4.2% | 0 (=)
🟪 BSW: 2.9% | 0 (=)
+/- vs. October 7
Nowcast EU 🗳️ retweeted
❗️📊 Latest version of the Nowcast UK elections sandbox is now live.
Set vote share, vote concentration, incumbent effects and correlation to various geographic & demographic attributes.
In theory, there are no limits to the results you can generate
🔗 nowcast.uk/sandbox
Nowcast EU 🗳️ retweeted
🇬🇧 Nowcast UK | House of Commons projection — October 15, 2026
🟥 LAB: 27% | 291 (-120)
➡️ RFM: 23% | 114 (+109)
🟦 CON: 20% | 106 (-15)
🟧 LDM: 10% | 65 (-7)
🟩 GRN: 10% | 9 (+5)
🟨 SNP: 3% | 34 (+25)
🔲 PLC: 2% | 9 (+5)
+/- vs. GE2024
🔗 nowcast.uk/projection
🇩🇰 Denmark | Folketing nowcast update — October 15 2026
🟥 A: 21% | 37 (-1)
🟨 O: 13% | 23 (+7)
🟪 F: 11% | 19 (-1)
🟩 C: 10% | 17 (+4)
ℹ️ I: 10% | 17 (+1)
🟧 Ø: 8% | 13 (+2)
🟦 V: 7% | 12 (-6)
🟦 Æ: 7% | 12 (+2)
🟪 B: 6% | 11 (+1)
🟪 M: 6% | 10 (-4)
...
+/- vs. 2026 election
🇦🇹 Austria | Legislative Election Nowcast update — October 10, 2026
⬛ FPÖ: 39% | 73 (+2)
🟦 ÖVP: 21% | 38 (+1)
🟥 SPÖ: 14% | 26 (-5)
🟩 GRN: 13% | 25 (+4)
🟪 NEOS: 7% | 13 (-2)
🟫 KPÖ: 4% | 8 (=)
—
+/- vs. July, 2026
🇩🇪 Germany | Federal Election Nowcast update — October 7, 2026
➡️ AfD: 28% | 203 (-3)
⬛ Union: 19% | 138 (-5)
🟩 GRN: 15% | 109 (+1)
🟥 SPD: 14% | 100 (+8)
🟪 Linke: 11% | 79 (-1)
—
🟨 FDP: 4.0% | 0 (=)
🟪 BSW: 2.9% | 0 (=)
+/- vs. September 22
🇸🇰 Slovakia | Legislative Election Nowcast update — October 5, 2026
#️⃣ PS: 19% | 37 (=)
🟥 Smer: 17% | 32 (=)
🟫 Rep: 12% | 22 (+1)
🔲 Slov: 9% | 17 (+1)
🟩 SaS: 8% | 15 (-1)
🟪 Hlas: 8% | 14 (-1)
🟨 KDH: 7% | 13 (=)
—
🟦 Dem: 4.8% | 0 (=)
+/- vs. September 3
🇵🇱 Poland | Legislative Election (Sejm) Nowcast update — October 3, 2026
🟧 KO: 33% | 189 (+9)
🟦 PiS: 21% | 123 (-4)
⬛ Kon: 14% | 71 (-6)
🟫 KKP: 9% | 38 (-2)
🟥 Lew: 8% | 31 (+5)
➡️ R+: 5% | 8 (-2)
—
🟪 Raz: 4.5%
🟩 PSL: 3.0%
🟨 PL50: 1.2%
+/- vs. September 18
🇨🇿 Czechia | Chamber of Deputies Nowcast update — September, 2026
🟦 ANO: 31% | 88 (+8)
🟪 STAN: 16% | 42 (+20)
↔️ ODS: 13% | 35 (+8)*
⬛ Piráti: 8% | 19 (+1)
🟫 SPD: 7% | 16 (+1)
—
#️⃣ AUTO: 4.6% | 0 (-13)
🟨 KDU: 3.0% | 0 (-16)*
🟪 TOP: 3.0% | 0 (-9)*
+/- vs. 2025
*Ex-SPOLU
Nowcast EU 🗳️ retweeted
🇬🇧 Nowcast UK | House of Commons projection — September 30, 2026
🟥 LAB: 26% | 260 (-151)
➡️ RFM: 23% | 120 (+115)
🟦 CON: 20% | 120 (-1)
🟧 LDM: 11% | 69 (-3)
🟩 GRN: 11% | 7 (+3)
🟨 SNP: 3% | 39 (+30)
🔲 PLC: 2% | 12 (+8)
+/- vs. GE2024
🔗 nowcast.uk/projection
