"Retarditas certa est."
Joined September 2025
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Since $NVO launched their stupid and economically irrelevant pill at the beginning of the year, $NVO stock is down 30% and NVO/LLY ratio is down 50%. In the same time $LLY combined incretin franchise quarterly run rate has grown by 40% or 4.6B (3q26 vs 4q25) vs NVO 0% or $0B (2q26 vs 4q25, since they haven't announced yet). But yeah, tell me again what a gamechanger wegovy pill is. I've been saying this all year lmao and wow surprise qed.
Ok as I said I virtually never block people just mute them if they are dumb+ annoying enough but if you spam my posts with a dozen low/no value replies then yeah I will block you. Besides that I only block actual bots.
I virtually never block people who want to come on my $NVO posts and bookmark them and say stupid stuff, I dont care. You want to embarrass yourself in my comment section that's your choice. I just mute you if I get annoyed enough/ tired of seeing your nonsubstantive replies.
For the dumbasses getting excited about LLY orforglipron "missing estimates", I've consistently stated that it doesn't really matter as it's a rounding error. What matters is the overall franchise (to the point in my above post)
teapaw.org/ObsvRetardation/status…
I think the market has accepted the notion that oral obesity pills were overhyped and don't really matter, which I've been saying all year. Some kind of got themselves worked up in the belief that it's more convenient, but the reality is that a weekly injection that takes 60 seconds is already extremely convenient, and the number of people who don't want to inject is actually really tiny. Especially in adults. Especially when the pill requires fasting.
I also don't think monthly dosing will be good at least based on any of the stuff that is currently out there. You can't stretch something with a nine day t1/2 to qm dosing when you acutely feel the effects of the concentration swings. The inconsistent drug effect is not worth the 180 seconds per month that you save. Bero might be good for q2w but that's a weird interval, nobody can remember that LOL. Weekly is easy to remember you just inject on Sunday night (or whenever you might choose).
I think there's another underappreciated point, with drug that suppresses your appetite you'd rather not allow the concentration to fluctuate wildly like something else like say a lipid lowering drug where you are just worried about cumulative exposure. And it's actually true for a lot of endocrinology drugs that you don't want to allow the serum concentration to fluctuate much because the effects are acutely felt. But for appetite and diet specifically, there is such a large behavioral and habit-forming element. You don't want to have massive suppression at the beginning of window and then have your appetite almost fully returned by the end.
Pretty substantial beat by $lly I won't detail except point out the continued rapid growth in their non-cardiometabolic portfolio, albeit obviously a small fraction of their overall sales. I can't fathom the logic of whoever is bidding $NVO pre-market on this news, presumably on the notion that a rising tide raises all boat (no pun intended)? A meaningful portion of that $5B raise is coming out of what would have been novo's top line. Lilly literally is the tide in this case LOL.
$GMAB I sold about 1/4 of my position just now. It's triggering like 4 of my sell rules at once:
1) Exhausted extension + volume by multiple measures
2) Retesting its all time high from years ago
3) +27% two days after I bought it
4) Me getting too excited and posting screenshots
Something Ive been thinking abt wrt glp-1/obesity drug economics, you see in the trials they lose 20% weight on avg for example with 15mg tzp but I think the distribution there is doing a lot more work in economic terms than many realize. 15% weight loss is not actually that much (Someone with a starting bmi of 35 would still be in obese bracket), and 72-80 weeks to make that amount of progress is a long time. So how long will someone pay hundreds of dollars a month for that? Vs the tail of high responders that will stay on drug I think is likely what drives the economics. Hence why there probably is meaningful opportunity for more powerful weight loss drugs with more rapid + higher response rates*. Vs companies wasting time with bs like monthly dosing gimmicks. Come on 😂 nobody is discontinuing bc a weekly 60 second injection is too much work.
*And faster response cant be separated from tolerability
Btw the 35 bmi example is relevant and actually low, because the average starting BMI in these p3 trials is generally In the high 30s, as is the average starting BMI of cash pay GLP-1 users according to mochi health ~37 (first US source I could find). So actually using that if the avg person loses 15% it would take them down to ~31-32 BMI. I would understand being quite frustrated with that result if you're paying out of pocket.
The best part about the $VKTX earnings call is now these geniuses and by geniuses I mean idiots can finally shut the fuck up about a weekly pill 😂
I cut out the guy's name because I'm not trying to pick on him, but obviously there are still a lot of people who don't follow the obesity space closely who think this way. Those are the same type still bag holding Novo that will be selling out of it over the coming years, because they think pills will be 50% of the market or whatever nonsense LOL. Basically a mental shortcut that pills are easier, without any concept of what's actually involved in administering either format.
I don't even understand how these analysts ask the dumbest questions. Like how is this a question, this is the most basic PK if you have even the most rudimentary understanding of peptides. And this guy is going to put a price target on the stock based on his complete ignorance, and then some dumbasses are going to tweet about it 😂
But it's also fitting because it's a perfect illustration of the point I made in the quoted tweet.
I really thought the monkey was our president for a sec 😂
Carrion crows make decisions faster than monkeys and humans.
Learn more in a new #SciencePerspective: scim.ag/4zmOF1i
$VKTX I listened to the earnings call they spent way too much time talking about things that don't matter at all. They need to just cut off all PR communications for the next year until they have Vanquish data to report. Until then nothing matters LOL.
I mean I knew they wouldn't have anything important to say, so I kind of did it to myself but I had to go grocery shopping and I was bored LOL
Occam's Retard retweeted
New drug candidate for deadly rare neurodegenerative disorder on hold at FDA for obscure/hypothetical tox concern…
…meanwhile, absolutely mix together six random peptides and see what happens!
Proud to have not realized that today was fomc day. One of the stupidest and inconsequential events that gets way too much attention from Galaxy brain fintwit bros
It's open label so it confounds AE reporting but note that UTI rates are the same across arms (and numerically lower at 12mg reta vs the others).
In a head-to-head Phase 3 study in adults with type 2 diabetes, our investigational triple agonist delivered greater reductions in A1C and more than double the weight loss compared to an injectable GLP-1 at 80 weeks. Read more: go.lilly.com/ihqbej
With the FDA's discretionary enforcement policy update today, megatide, the only molecule known to increase male member size, is one step closer to the market.
I'm going to start a company that just takes all the peptides and manufactures them into one really long peptide and call it megatide, and then I'll sell it for research use only and spread on all the biohacker forms that it makes your male member grow humongous.
I'll tell them that there's a log-linear response such that for each 10% you increase the number of AAs, the peptide yells and additional 4 mm^3 in tumescent volume. And then I'll pay Andrew Huberman to promote it on his podcast, soon Dr Oz and RFK Jr will be talking about how it's a miracle cure.
Gemini is saying it won't work but that's why it's an AI and not a visionary entrepreneur.
Occam's Retard retweeted
One challenge to the "peptides" narrative is they're fighting a kind of reverse selection bias. The Target customer needs to simultaneously have 1) the risk tolerance to inject clinically unvalidated drugs but 2) be risk-averse enough to pay a premium to avoid the gray market
$Hims "peptides" narrative is just incoherent. They aren't compounding smth like sermorelin, which they could legally do now and be aimed at same crowd with similar economics. same for TRT. but you think if these gray market peptides get ok'd itd be a game changer? ok.