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Strategy now owes 18,818 BTC a year in preferred dividends and interest. That is more Bitcoin than it bought in the entire 2022 bear market. In June, that bill nearly broke the flywheel. I built a brand new model to show exactly how close it came 👇🏼

Bitcoin is closing in on the 6-12 month Realised Price at $86K, a level that helped kickstart the previous bull market.

Almost nobody has ever been ruined by sitting on their hands through a quiet market. The accounts that get destroyed are the ones that couldn't stand the silence and went looking for something to do with it

10 years ago, JPMorgan wouldn’t touch Bitcoin with a 10-foot pole. Now they’re predicting it could be the best-performing asset of the decade, with forecasts that still look heavily sandbagged. Eventually, they all learn.

Institutional demand now accounts for 42% of this week’s Bitcoin capital flows. Spot ETFs contributed $68M this week, while organic demand still leads at $97M. TradFi wrappers are becoming a major driver of the market.

On average, half of all Bitcoin bought at cycle lows was sold within just 210 days. For 2022 bottom buyers, that meant selling around $26k, before the real rally had even started. Every cycle back to 2011 shows the same pattern, and it says a lot about how today's bottom buyers are likely to behave👇🏼

Bitcoin has now generated $1.75 trillion in cumulative gross realised profits. An extraordinary amount of wealth realised over Bitcoin’s lifetime.

Bitcoin’s 50th-percentile MVRV price band sits at $90.7K. Even after the recovery, price remains below its historical median valuation. We haven’t even reclaimed the midpoint of Bitcoin’s long-term valuation range yet.

68% of Bitcoin’s supply is now in profit. That still leaves almost 1 in 3 BTC underwater. The recovery has come a long way, but there’s still plenty of ground to reclaim.

The average Bitcoin across the entire network is now 4.5 years old. This single metric compresses the entire supply’s age distribution into one number, regardless of whether coins have moved. A remarkable measure of how mature Bitcoin’s supply has become.

Bitcoin continues to chop around its Active Realised Price at $85K. This is the average cost basis of economically active supply, making it a key battleground between holders sitting in profit and those underwater.

Hash Ribbons used to be one of Bitcoin’s most reliable capitulation signals. But with miners increasingly pivoting towards AI this year, declining hashrate no longer tells quite the same story.

What a difference a few months makes for Bitcoin. In July, everyone was asking how much lower we could go. Now, after a sharp breakout from the bear market lows, the question is whether this rally has legs. 10 subscriber questions answered in October's OCM Q&A, from options and Mt. Gox to the “Uptober” narrative 👇🏼 onchainmind.io/research/ocm-…

At June’s low, only 2% of days in Bitcoin’s entire history had seen more long-term holders underwater. But apparently that wasn’t the cycle bottom.

$40K October gang, how we feeling?

Not every on-chain metric survived this Bitcoin cycle. Some nailed the major turning points. Others gave signals that never materialised. I sat down with @_Checkmatey_ to review the evidence, challenge the old favourites and identify what matters for the next move 👇🏼