Verified NFL officiating data from the fan side. Every crew, team and game checked against two sources. Open methods. Every correction public.
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Week 8: all 17 crews are in the normal range. None above the league standard, none below it.
What changed: Novak's crew (+30%, likely range -2% to +65%) and Wrolstad's (+21%, -2% to +45%) were Above standard after week 7. Both ranges now include zero.
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Tonight's BUF at MIN crew, led by Carl Cheffers, has thrown 14.9 flags a game in 7 games this season. The same teams drew 17.8 a game from other crews.
Fewer so far, but 7 games is a small sample: likely range 35% below to 3% above standard. Typical.
#BUFvsMIN #BillsMafia #Skol
End of Q3: Bills 13, Vikings 6. 13 flags so far: Bills 8 for 62 yards, Vikings 4 for 20, plus 1 declined. Buffalo had 3 false starts in the last 3 minutes of the quarter.
Unofficial (ESPN feed), checked tomorrow.
#BUFvsMIN #BillsMafia #Skol
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Final: Bills 23, Vikings 6. 13 flags, none in the 4th quarter: Bills 8 for 62 yards, Vikings 4 for 20, plus 1 declined.
Unofficial (ESPN feed). Tomorrow in this thread: the checked total and our forecast grade.
#BUFvsMIN #BillsMafia #Skol
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Sunday night, TB at CHI: 17 accepted flags (CHI 9, TB 8), checked against ESPN.
Our forecast, posted Saturday before kickoff: 14, 80% range 9 to 19. Inside.
Final: Bears 27, Buccaneers 24. #TBvsCHI #WeAreTheKrewe #DaBears
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Week 9 forecasts, logged before kickoff. Expected accepted flags, 80% range.
Every game sits at about 13 to 16, and nine of 14 round to 14. The ranges overlap, so no real gap.
Most of the swing is chance. Not betting advice. We don't bet, and we take no betting money.
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Week 7 crew report. 2 of 17 NFL crews are above the league standard. The other 15 are in the normal range.
Scott Novak's crew: +41% (likely range +10% to +70%)
Craig Wrolstad's crew: +26% (+1% to +50%), new this week
% = flags a game vs what the same teams drew from other crews
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Correction: our Week 7 thread said 2 of 17 crews were Above standard. It is 1 of 17 (Novak's crew holds).
Our Week 8 report also said Wrolstad's crew changed from Above standard after week 7. It didn't: under our corrected label rule it was Normal range at both weeks. Our error.
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Tonight's JAX at BAL crew (referee Brad Allen) has worked 7 games in 2026. Its flag rate is typical: 1.07 times the expected rate for the teams it had (likely range 0.85 to 1.30).
His crews ran lower in 2025 (0.85, 15 games) and 2024 (0.87, 16).
#JAXvsBAL #DUUUVAL #RavensFlock
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Final: Jaguars 33, Ravens 10.
10 flags, none in the 4th quarter: Ravens 7 for 46 yards, Jaguars 3 for 19. Unofficial count from the ESPN feed. Tomorrow in this thread: the checked total and our forecast grade.
#JAXvsBAL #DUUUVAL #RavensFlock
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Checked final, JAX 33, BAL 10: 11 accepted flags (BAL 7, JAX 4). Our forecast was 14, 80% range 9 to 20, so it landed inside, in the lower half.
Live counts were running tallies; this final is checked against nflverse and ESPN. #JAXvsBAL #DUUUVAL #RavensFlock
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Graded: 15 accepted flags, inside 9 to 19. Week 8 receipt: teapaw.org/OpenOfficiating/status…
Week 8 receipt: all 13 forecasts in Saturday's slate landed inside their 80% range. Totals below.
Closest: ATL at TB, 8 flags, bottom of 8-19.
Monday night: CHI at SEA 15 (CHI 10, SEA 5), forecast 14. Inside.
13 of 13 is more than an 80% range should catch. Ours may run wide.
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Week 8 forecasts, logged before kickoff. Expected accepted flags, 80% range.
Fewest: LAC at LA and ATL at TB, 13 (8-19)
NE at MIA and PHI at WAS are held while we recheck a data input.
Most of the swing is chance. Not betting advice. We don't bet, and we take no betting money.
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