investing, writing, eco-conscious living and eco-worrier; follow for stock and option ideas, and who knows what else
Joined September 2010
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Jeff Fischer retweeted
The $CLS report might be the best news $CRDO has gotten all month, and I do not think people have connected it yet.
Celestica designs and builds the networking switches and server racks for the hyperscalers, the exact systems that Credo’s cables wire together. When Celestica ships more switches and racks, more cables get pulled with them. It is one of the cleanest real-time windows into the demand Credo actually sells into.
Now look at what they just reported. Revenue up 83%. The networking-heavy segment up 102%. And then the stunner, they guided 2027 revenue to DOUBLE to $40 billion, with their 800G and 1.6T networking programs named directly in the outlook, and said customer demand forecasts for 2028 are meaningfully higher than even that.
Remember what $CRDO just fell 20% on. Fear that 1.6T adoption was coming slower than hoped and that demand was wobbling. The company building the actual 1.6T systems just filed an outlook that says demand is doubling and accelerating into 2028. Inside those racks, at those distances, copper wins on cost and power, and Credo holds 93 to 99% of that cable market by its own competitor’s estimate.
The share questions, MaxLinear’s ambitions and the one deployment flirting with optics, still get answered by Credo’s own print. But the market priced a demand slowdown into a stock whose demand pipe just doubled on paper.
The more leverage there is in a market, a sector, or a theme (AI), the more volatile the stocks will be. Research it first. And keep it in mind as you consider your allocations.
Jeff Fischer retweeted
Is AI a bubble? I asked Barry @ritholtz.
His answer starts with a question of his own, and he makes the case that investors should be watching the “Magnificent 493.”
(He also shares the startup pitch he called “the single dumbest idea” he’d ever heard.)
youtube.com/watch?v=MO2GX0Hw…
It's amazing to see how delusional people can become, and how easily changed to get there. And how shallow they clearly were.
Yeah, I think I agree, $GOOG seems the stronger all around put-writing candidate. As long as you don't mind more AI-adjacent exposure.
I didn’t get assigned yet; I said I’d be okay with that, though. The answer depends on your objective. Just want to keep an income position going? Then write calls that target net profits on the whole. (Or do consider selling the shares and writing puts again.) Long-term owner? Then be more careful on call strikes, of course. And perhaps hope for more recovery first.
I need to look over last night's results from NFLX. But perhaps, you would think. It's of course down quite a bit the past year, and it was getting inexpensive even before today. As long as the core business remains healthy.
A short update on the put options open targeting income (or more shares, but typically income):
10/23 $NOW $135 puts, on track to expire
10/30 $NVDA $235 puts
11/06 $DELL $560 puts
11/20 $NVDA $235 puts (rolled from $237.50)
11/27 $DELL $555 puts
Some in-the-money puts on volatile stocks, finally, after months of relative ease. Looking elsewhere for some new ones, while continuing to let these run.
Jeff Fischer retweeted
$NVDA & $AMKR are planning to expand advanced packaging capacity by over 300% by 2028 while Nvidia's other partners target 15x more optical-engine capacity.
Nvidia is also putting $1.1B upfront to secure additional chip testing capacity as Jensen Huang says "demand is extraordinary."
If the Nasdaq or S&P falls 30%, it isn’t going to change my life at all.
Have a portfolio and a life that are indifferent to declines, because they happen.
I’ve found Muse has the best handle on options so far. It hasn’t made a mistake yet. Co-Pilot this morning kept saying the opposite of the truth. But I find Co-Pilot excellent for many topics.
Be careful with Co-Pilot or Gemini when it comes to options analysis. I find they still make completely incorrect assumptions. Even AI doesn't understand short (or even long!) options much of the time.